Bloomberg Surveillance 4/16/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 16, 2026 at 16:19  |  2:24:17  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Max Kettner — Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, HSBC
Gargi Chaudhuri — Head of iShares Investment Strategy, BlackRock
Mona Mahajan — Head of Investment Strategy, Edward Jones

Summary

Bloomberg Surveillance discusses the market rally to all-time highs amid the Middle East conflict, focusing on the disconnect between equity optimism and physical oil market tightness. Guests provide investment insights on U.S. tech, inflation protection, EM as an AI play, and Netflix, while analyzing geopolitical risks and Fed policy uncertainty. The conversation highlights resilient corporate earnings and consumer strength despite ongoing tensions.

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs despite Strait of Hormuz closure and elevated oil prices.
  • Discussion on market disconnect: equities look through geopolitical risk, focusing on tech earnings and AI demand.
  • Max Kettner (HSBC) bullish on U.S. equities and tech, sees U.S. exceptionalism returning.
  • Gargi Chaudhuri (BlackRock) recommends adding inflation protection via TIPS and commodities.
  • Robert McNally (Rapidan) analyzes oil market, sees potential for rally to end before recession.
  • Michael Morris (Guggenheim) bullish on Netflix ahead of earnings.
  • C.S. Venkatakrishnan (Barclays) remains committed to Middle East, bullish on U.K. economy.
  • Bill Dudley (former NY Fed) discusses Fed policy, sees unlikely June cut amid inflation.
Trade Ideas
Max Kettner Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, HSBC 4:51
Bullish on S&P 500 and tech sector.
The S&P 500's earnings outlook is not significantly threatened by the Middle East conflict because the tech sector, which drives earnings, is almost 50% of market cap, and consumer cyclicals are a small part. The initial 20% multiple compression was irrational, and the current rally is justified by strong tech and AI demand, with relative tech valuations at attractive levels.
SPY XLK HIGH
Bob McNally President and Founder, Rapidan Energy Group 32:08
Oil rally may end before causing recession.
If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen by Q3, the oil price rally will likely need to be capped by extensive demand destruction in the form of super hits to GDP growth. The base case is to avoid the worst-case recession, expecting either a ceasefire allowing full resumption of flows or military degradation of the blockade in coming weeks.
WTI MED
Michael Morris 55:00
Bullish on Netflix due to strong fundamentals.
Bullish on Netflix due to strong fundamentals: expecting 15% revenue growth for Q1, easily achievable after U.S. price increases, with potential for raised full-year guidance and operating margin. Underlying fundamentals are strong, and the company is focused on content spending and diversifying into sports and live events.
NFLX HIGH
Gargi Chaudhuri Head of iShares Investment Strategy, BlackRock 55:15
Focus on AI and tech growth theme.
Investors should go back to focusing on the AI theme and the growth part of the economy, as tech and communication services have seen positive earnings revisions and the AI-driven investment is existential and ongoing regardless of Middle East events.
AIQ MED
Gargi Chaudhuri Head of iShares Investment Strategy, BlackRock 55:44
Add inflation protection via TIPS and commodities.
It's a good time to add inflation protection to portfolios, recommending the zero to five-year part of the curve via TIPS or a broad basket of commodities. Headline inflation will continue to move higher in the short term, while shelter inflation shows some signs of easing, allowing the Fed to stay on hold.
TIPS DBC HIGH
Gargi Chaudhuri Head of iShares Investment Strategy, BlackRock 58:05
EM is an AI story, bullish on EM.
Emerging markets are being viewed as an AI story, with 46% of EM focused on tech and communication services. EM earnings expectations have been revised even more upwardly than the U.S., driven by memory and compute demand in Korea and Taiwan.
EEM EWY EWT MED
CS Venkatakrishnan CEO, Barclays 85:05
Bullish on U.K. economy and equities.
The U.K. economy is strong and business-friendly, with a solid GDP print, investing in financials, technology, biotech, and diversifying energy independence. The U.K. continues to be an open economy trading with the rest of the world.
EWU MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published April 16, 2026, features Max Kettner, Bob McNally, Michael Morris, Gargi Chaudhuri, CS Venkatakrishnan discussing SPY, XLK, WTI, NFLX, AIQ, TIPS, DBC, EEM, EWY, EWT, EWU. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Max Kettner, Bob McNally, Michael Morris, Gargi Chaudhuri, CS Venkatakrishnan  · Tickers: SPY, XLK, WTI, NFLX, AIQ, TIPS, DBC, EEM, EWY, EWT, EWU