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15:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
Thread Guy
15h
AMC
ZEC
SOL FLIP
Pawns
HOOD
▾
HIGH
AMC tokenization drama squeezes stock and coin.
The public fight between AMC CEO Adam Aaron and Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev over tokenized AMC stock created a viral stock-meme/tokenized-stock narrative. The AMC coin ripped from zero toward roughly $100M and squeezed AMC stock pre-market, with AMC up as much as 12-15% after hours and still up after the open. Thread Guy argues this is one of the best coin narratives ever because the marginal buyer is a public-company CEO endorsing it, and every public CEO will now copy tokenized-stock/RWA gimmicks if it can lift their stock, so the trend should get crazier.
AMC LONG
AMC LONG
Zcash breakout, bought heavily, still optimistic.
He bought a lot of Zcash over the last couple days around $8.90, sized it hard, and it broke to new highs above $1,000. He remains deeply optimistic and thinks it will not go back below $750. He prefers it to Monero because, in his words, it actually goes up; it has strongly outperformed Bitcoin and he is still really long at current prices.
ZEC LONG
Solana disadvantaged versus Robinhood integrated stack.
Solana is now structurally disadvantaged because it lacks its own exchange/app stack while Robinhood has an integrated chain, social trading app, spot listings, and Vlad's soft shill. Markets have no loyalty to venues and users trade wherever they can make the most money. His Solana thesis quickly went from being the hub of on-chain experimentation to hoping for trickle-down liquidity, which he says won't work. He calls it a brutal spot and is unsure what happens, with support only at $95.
SOL AVOID
Pawns social trading leaderboard and buybacks.
Pawns is one of the strongest social trading/launchpad tokens; it kept rising from 50-200M to about 720M, with high volume and more fees/revenue than Pump. It has buybacks, a partnership with Uniswap, and a leaderboard of huge P&L holders. The chart remains up-only and liquid.
Pawns LONG
Robinhood chain vertical stack dominates onchain.
Robinhood under Vlad Tenev is executing the social trading/on-chain expansion flawlessly: they abstract the chain away, list Cash Cat, soft shill, crush earnings, endorse stock tokens and memes, and move patiently with no leaks. Because Robinhood owns the biggest retail exchange and now the chain/social stack, users and projects have little reason to leave; this vertical integration should keep winning and pull liquidity from Solana.
HOOD LONG
Bitcoin holds $74K, rallies to $81K.
He expects crypto on-chain euphoria while Bitcoin itself participates less in this bull run, but he still has a floor: Bitcoin will not go below $74K and should trade toward $81K-ish, with record Bitcoin ETF inflows of $730M supporting demand. He thinks any September flash crash starts from higher prices after leveraged chasing.
BTC LONG
Pump flanked but still holding optimistic.
Pump is being flanked by Robinhood chain and the social trading wars; its daily fees fell to the lowest since August and he sold 33% of his position. Still, he remains extremely optimistic and is holding the remaining position, playing the rest around price levels rather than exiting entirely.
PUMP LONG
HIGH
02:59
Sep 04
Sep 04
Thread Guy
1d
Low-cap memecoins
▾
HIGH
Low-cap coin shilling is inevitable, positive.
Thread Guy argues that widespread shilling of low-cap coins is inevitable and positive because free markets reward good calls and punish bad calls, everyone will eventually have a coin, public evangelism creates community and alpha, and there is no coherent line separating small-coin shilling from large-cap promotion. Copy traders who follow bad shills eventually lose money and stop, so the market self-corrects.
Low-cap memecoins LONG
HIGH
00:18
Sep 04
Sep 04
Thread Guy
1d
MSGS
FAMI 1ST
HOOD
MU FLIP
000660.KS FLIP
▾
HIGH
NBA fraud risk threatens Madison Square entities
The Clippers' historic sanction for salary-cap fraud shows NBA franchise fraud is at all-time highs and the next reported target is the Knicks. Because Madison Square Garden's sports/venue complex is publicly tradable, the same kind of league investigation could create major public-market risk; he estimates the Clippers would be down 50% if they were a stock.
MSGS WATCH
FAMI tokenized pump likely delisting
The FAMI tokenized-stock pump was not officially supported by the issuer; whoever ran the coin was manually attaching shares to the LP, so the rally came from retail buying the penny stock on Robinhood rather than the token. He expects this to become a securities-fraud case and says FAMI is going to get delisted as it falls back to 13 cents.
FAMI AVOID
HOOD looks incredible on onchain revenue
Robinhood's onchain/tokenization rollout is generating standout revenue: he highlights $4 million made on chain in one day, about 25% of total revenue on the blockchain and an annualized run-rate that is massive relative to Bitcoin's chain, and the stock is breaking out. He thinks HOOD could really go and calls the trade clean.
HOOD LONG
Avoid memory and AI momentum semiconductors
AI/memory/momentum semis are distributing while the broad market is green: DRAM, Micron, SK hynix and the semiconductor complex are red/down, Broadcom crushed earnings and fell, and after the Leopold blowup he does not expect momentum leaders to V-recover. Micron looks gross and money is rotating to crypto.
MU AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
ANOM hits billion if Bitcoin breaks
He increasingly likes ANOM at 220 and thinks it is hard to see a scenario where ANOM does not reach $1bn market cap if Bitcoin breaks 82, because Bitcoin bull-market wealth generation would fuel Robinhood-chain meme/social-trading leaders.
ANOM LONG
Robinhood chain attracting returning OG capital
Veteran crypto traders who already made fortunes are returning specifically because Robinhood's onchain/social-trading rollout excites them, unlike Solana; new DeFi games are brewing every week, FOMO is adding fuel, and TVL is still low for a chain trying to tokenize equities. He is putting capital into Robinhood-chain coins and sees the leaders as PAWN, AI and Cashcat.
PAWN LONG
AI LONG
CASHCAT LONG
PUMP still reacts if Bitcoin breaks
He has an oversized PUMP position but is not panic dumping. PUMP is still the biggest alt gainer into Bitcoin strength, and if Bitcoin breaks 82 in a bull market he expects PUMP to react strongly; he plans to trim some into Robinhood-chain exposure but is sitting in the core for now.
PUMP LONG
Solana rebound likely after Bitcoin breaks
He finds it hard to believe Solana plays no role this cycle: if Bitcoin legs up and Robinhood chain generates wealth, capital should rotate into Solana as a second beneficiary. The market has quickly priced a worst-case scenario for SOL, which he sees as too bearish.
SOL LONG
Bitcoin bull market if 82 breaks
He believes this is a bull market and expects Bitcoin to go for it again after the current chop. A decisive break above 82 would accelerate the market and make things get stupid; gold strength and strong onchain/stock flows support the constructive crypto setup.
BTC LONG
HIGH
15:40
Sep 03
Sep 03
Thread Guy
1d
BTC
GLD
UNI
LIT
FOMC September no-change
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin bullish above 79k.
Crypto and Bitcoin are following gold's 2% breakout. He is bullish if Bitcoin clears mid-$79k and then $82k, which would confirm 'go time' and a bull-market leg. He later adds Q4 is a 'guaranteed bottom' and the market is in a bull trend.
BTC LONG
Gold ripping amid macro uncertainty.
Gold is up 2% and putting in a striking candle. Macro is bad and Fed/Warsh are in a rate trap, so gold is going nuts and looks amazing.
GLD LONG
Uniswap benefits from Robinhood chain.
Uniswap's chart looks unbelievable; he caught a prior breakout and sees it as a huge beneficiary of Robinhood chain activity.
UNI LONG
Fed September no-change odds are bullish.
He bet heavily on no Fed rate move in September; odds rose from 44% to 55-62%. Waller leans hold. If the Fed does nothing after hawkish talk, risk markets can rally; if it hikes, both Fed and Treasury are trapped.
FOMC September no-change LONG
Solana losing activity to Robinhood.
Solana is getting 'mogged' by Robinhood chain; Pump.fun fee activity is at its lowest since August while on-chain activity is elsewhere, and Solana's high fees hurt small memecoin traders. He does not declare Solana dead but sees near-term pressure and a need for a new narrative.
SOL AVOID
Circle looks strong with crypto.
Circle stock is up 7% and looks pretty good as a crypto proxy; it is ripping with crypto.
USDC LONG
Robinhood chain attracts OG crypto capital.
Robinhood chain is becoming the new on-chain speculative center; OG crypto traders who ignored Solana are returning, TVL is still low, and meme-stock tokenization is a new game. He is buying Robinhood coins and highlights leaders Pawns, CashCat, and AI.
Pawns LONG
CASHCAT LONG
Pump remains his core long.
He is heavily long Pump and has not sold any; Pump is the biggest alt gainer, has app/buyer-base advantages, and if Bitcoin breaks out, Pump should lead again. He plans to trim some but hold the rest.
PUMP LONG
Zcash privacy narrative and chart breakout.
Zcash has a diehard outside-crypto buyer base tied to surveillance-state fears and private money; he sees it as a reflexive, Lindy narrative asset. The chart reclaimed his 880 entry and he expects a nuclear move.
ZEC LONG
Anomcoin benefits from top trader narrative.
Anomcoin is likely the savior narrative for Solana because top trader Anom is the cycle's social-trading narrative; if Bitcoin rips, Anomcoin could go to $1B. He says the coin should do very well.
ANOM LONG
Hyperliquid has non-crypto demand.
Hyperliquid is one of the few coins with a buyer base and use case outside crypto; it was a top pick for that reason.
HYPE LONG
Anthropic pre-IPO markets could be monster.
Anthropic pre-IPO perp open interest surpassed $10M; if this market really catches, it could be a monster. He is watching it as a pre-IPO trading area.
Anthropic pre-IPO WATCH
Brent crude is breaking higher.
Brent crude is around $98 and about to break $100 as war and inflation rage; oil is going parabolic and rates are reacting to it.
BNO LONG
Robinhood stock leverages crypto chain revenue.
Robinhood's chain did $4M in fees in one day, annualizing near $1.4B or about 25% of total company revenue, making HOOD a crypto proxy. The stock is up 8-14% on crypto flows, not just Trump accounts, and he thinks it can really go.
HOOD LONG
HIGH
10:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
Thread Guy
1d
PUMP.FUN 1ST
PONS 1ST
FWA
Bonercoin
Robinhood Chain stock-paired memecoins
▾
HIGH
Launchpads with revenue are permanently underpriced.
Launchpads like Pump.fun and PONS have the clearest product-market fit in crypto, do millions of dollars in daily revenue even in bear markets, and trade at low buyback multiples; Pump.fun was around 10-15x FDV while PONS was around 1-2x, so launchpads are permanently underpriced and both are undervalued in an onchain bull market.
PUMP.FUN LONG
PONS LONG
FWA token alignment should eventually work.
FWA is another example of aligning users through a day-one token and he remains fully positioned; tokens are good for aligning incentives and attracting attention, so FWA should have its day in the sun even if it has lagged lately.
FWA LONG
Stock-paired memecoins tie cultural assets upward.
He is very bullish on Robinhood Chain's stock-paired memecoin primitive: AMM pools tie a memecoin directly to the underlying value driver, so a HIMS-paired coin like Bonercoin can track HIMS moves; pairing AI memes to Nvidia or pre-IPO shares instead of ETH raises ceilings and brings stock supply onchain.
Bonercoin LONG
Robinhood Chain stock-paired memecoins LONG
Bitcoin is bullish after worst bear market.
He is a permanent Bitcoin bull; with Bitcoin having held despite Saylor selling and lingering macro overhangs, it is hard to envision downside outside a macro collapse, so crypto is in bullish consolidation and now needs any reason to go up, with more reasons up than down.
BTC LONG
Avoid illiquid stock-paired memecoins during weekends.
Stock tokens on Robinhood Chain can only mint and redeem during market hours, so on weekends there is no arbitrage supply; illiquid onchain names like AMC can depeg dramatically, so traders should be careful buying stock-paired memecoins with poor onchain liquidity when markets are closed.
AMC onchain token AVOID
Solana benefits from Robinhood user spillover.
Rather than treating Solana and Robinhood Chain purely as PvP, he wants to be long both because Robinhood Chain can onboard new users and spill over to Solana, similar to Q4 2024 when Pump.fun and Virtuals both rallied.
SOL LONG
Robinhood Chain ecosystem is long-term opportunity.
Robinhood Chain resembles Solana Q4 2023 or Base Q1 2024 as an upstart ecosystem starting a longer rally, not a flash in the pan; Robinhood is a powerful distribution platform planning equities, collectibles, and portfolio assets onchain, and the chain did $3 million in network revenue in a day, so if crypto is in a bull market, investors need to be positioned on Robinhood Chain.
HOOD LONG
HIGH
00:14
Sep 03
Sep 03
Thread Guy
2d
IBB
BTC
WEAT
AI
FAMI
▾
HIGH
IBB daily chart looks bullish.
IBB's high-timeframe daily chart looks strong, and he calls it one of his favorite coins/charts, signaling a bullish setup in the biotechnology ETF.
IBB LONG
Bullish Bitcoin; must stay positioned.
Thread Guy says he is a bull on Bitcoin even though it is a weird spot, and that you have to be positioned in it. He earlier frames the crypto/onchain backdrop as mania led by the founder of the biggest retail exchange while Bitcoin pushes a key level and many panic that money will not return.
BTC LONG
Wheat rising on supply concerns.
Wheat is moving sharply on Black Sea supply concerns and El Nino weather risks, and he says he loves the move, which is a bullish agricultural commodity view.
WEAT LONG
Watch AI onchain token's wild chart.
The onchain token AI has one of the craziest charts in a long time after what appears to be a $20 million clip purchase; he speculates the buyer could be Vlad/Robinhood using it as marketing spend before a listing, making it an extraordinary speculative setup to watch.
AI WATCH
Watch Farmmi memecoin short-squeeze setup.
Farmmi Inc (FAMI), a NASDAQ-listed mushroom agriculture penny stock, received a delisting warning and must hold a $1 bid for 10 days; an onchain memecoin tied to the stock has created a tokenized equity attention loop and short-squeeze attempt that 3xed/71% pumped the stock. He says it may get wild but the memecoin likely is a bundled rug, so it is a WATCH setup rather than a clean long.
FAMI WATCH
Short Brent crude on bearish chart.
Brent crude oil is forming a bearish shoulder-neck-shoulder/head-and-shoulders top on the chart; he calls oil horrifying and says he is shorting Brent because it looks like it is about to break down.
BNO SHORT
Long Robinhood HOOD trade.
He says he likes the Robinhood trade and is bullish on HOOD; this follows his earlier market framing that Robinhood-listed coins and platform momentum are strong.
HOOD LONG
HIGH
15:29
Sep 02
Sep 02
Thread Guy
2d
BTC
BNO FLIP
HOOD
ANOM
WEAT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin is a bull market hold.
He is a perma Bitcoin bull; he thinks the worst likely happened at $60K when Saylor selling could not push it lower, crypto is beaten down and sidelined, and after Bessent's comments crypto is looking for reasons to rally with more upside than downside.
BTC LONG
Short Brent oil on bearish chart.
He calls Brent oil horrifying at $96.4 and says he is shorting it aggressively, pointing to a shoulder-neck-shoulder chart pattern that looks like it will break down, even with war and rate-hike risk in the backdrop.
BNO SHORT
I like Robinhood stock trade.
He says he likes the HOOD trade, referring to Robinhood shares, as Robinhood Chain is on fire and the company is aggressively dominating on-chain stock/meme flows.
HOOD LONG
Anom is decent onchain play.
He says Anom might be a decent play here as well, likely as a Robinhood-chain ecosystem coin that can benefit from the onchain/stock-meme mania.
ANOM LONG
Wheat prices rising on supply concerns.
He flags surging wheat prices and attributes the move to Black Sea supply concerns and El Nino, adding that oil is lifting food inputs and bread prices at grocery stores.
WEAT LONG
Avoid Solana while Robinhood dominates.
He hard-rejects Solana as a hold because it has lost onchain thunder to Robinhood Chain; he asks why anyone would hold a coin with no motion, even as he owns Pump and debates the broader onchain thesis.
SOL AVOID
Betting December FOMC no change.
He put on a Polymarket position for no change at the December FOMC meeting, citing Bessent's short-term funding of the deficit, war/oil hike risk, and a 43% coin-flip market with his entry at 43-44.
Polymarket FOMC December no change LONG
FWA token will get its day.
He is fully positioned in FWA despite recent weakness because it is a token that launched day one and aligns incentives; he believes it will eventually have its day in the sun.
FWA LONG
Pawns leads Robinhood launchpad.
He bought Pawns after Noxa shut down because it was the leading Robinhood-chain launchpad with traction, and he believed the top launchpad on Robinhood Chain should be worth nine figures while it was trading around $4M; it has a revenue-buyback token and has since repriced.
Pawns LONG
Paired memecoins tie value to stocks.
He is very bullish on Robinhood-chain paired memecoins because AMM pools directly tie the memecoin's value to the underlying stock, connecting cultural assets to true value drivers such as Nvidia, HIMS, Anthropic or OpenAI; this should raise ceilings and become the new norm.
Bonercoin LONG
Stock memes are huge on Robinhood.
He says Robinhood launched tokenized asset management products such as MAG7X/ATPs, and the next leg will be doing things impossible in traditional funds: combining stocks with perpetual futures, mixing crypto assets and stocks, and putting portfolios into DeFi; he sees ATPs as the next evolution after closed-end funds, open-end funds and ETFs.
Robinhood Chain LONG
Farmmi delisting pair is wild event.
Farmmi Inc., a Chinese mushroom distributor below $1 and facing Nasdaq delisting, got an onchain Jincoin money-mushroom meme paired to its tokenized stock on Robinhood Chain; the onchain demand drove the Nasdaq stock up 71% on 16x volume as buyers attempt a $1/10-day compliance and possible short squeeze, but Thread Guy says it is probably a rug/zero, making it a wild event to watch.
FAMI WATCH
Jincoin WATCH
Pump launchpad is onchain winner.
He wants to be long both Pump and Pawns; he is not currently long Pump but says launchpads have clear product-market fit, low multiples despite millions per day in revenue, and Pump rallying back to highs would raise the ceiling for Pawns.
PUMP LONG
IBB biotech chart looks bullish.
He says the IBB biotech ETF high-timeframe chart looks sick and calls it one of his favorite coins, with IBB up 1% at the time.
IBB LONG
HIGH
11:00
Sep 02
Sep 02
Thread Guy
2d
BTC
GPRO
GLD
HOOD
ZEC
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin sellers exhausted; debt debasement supports.
Will turned bullish on Bitcoin because the major overhangs—quantum fears and the DAT/STRC concerns around Saylor—looked largely priced in after a 70% drawdown in gold terms, volatility had died out, and Saylor showed willingness to sell Bitcoin to defend STRK. He personally bought spot and plans to hold; future demand can come from US debt/financial repression, Treasury/yield stress, institutional mandates, and Bitcoin as a multi-jurisdictional debasement hedge. He would accumulate spot on dips into year-end.
BTC LONG
GoPro meme-stock mania with merger risk.
GoPro became a tiny, heavily shorted meme-stock event after Markiplier disclosed an 8.5% stake and Togei posted a large position; the FCC effectively banned GoPro's biggest competitor, and gambling influencers are shifting content budgets from slots to trading stocks. The setup is worth watching, but the Starman Optical merger below the pre-market price and possible SEC scrutiny make it highly risky.
GPRO WATCH
Gold hard-asset debasement hedge long-term.
He sees hard assets such as gold as long-term monetary debasement hedges alongside Bitcoin; historical financial repression, including the 1933 US gold seizure and post-WWII yield pegging, suggests hard assets may appreciate significantly before any possible controls or seizure.
GLD LONG
Robinhood gains from crypto net new activity.
Robinhood is interesting because crypto activity is all net new customers and money; it is transitioning trading revenue from options toward prediction markets and meme coins, so even a small crypto revenue story is incremental and decent.
HOOD LONG
Zcash privacy beta amid centralization pressures.
He took a small personal Zcash position as beta to Bitcoin because centralization, surveillance and financial-repression pressures are rising; he says the Zcash chart against Bitcoin looks nice, but it is a small hedge and not a replacement for Bitcoin spot.
ZEC LONG
HIGH
03:00
Sep 02
Sep 02
Thread Guy
3d
GPRO
Meme stocks
▾
HIGH
GoPro became influencer-driven meme-stock setup.
GoPro's surprise definitive agreement to merge with Starman Optical at $1.14 per share creates a potential valuation gap: the stock closed around $0.87, then spiked to roughly $1.57 premarket and was trading around $1.48 to $1.60, while holders would be paid $1.14 per share if that is the merger consideration. Thread Guy treats paying above the deal price as dangerous and confusing.
GPRO WATCH
Influencer content budgets shift toward meme stocks.
Influencers and content creators will increasingly shift their content budgets from casino slot gambling to trading and meme stocks because a large publicized meme-stock position creates more engagement, social relevance, and upside than a slot max win. Thread Guy argues this social-trading trend will accelerate.
Meme stocks WATCH
HIGH
00:05
Sep 02
Sep 02
Thread Guy
3d
ZEC
US30Y
USD/JPY
BITO
GLD
▾
HIGH
Small Zcash position as Bitcoin beta/privacy hedge
He took a small personal Zcash position as potential beta to Bitcoin and a hedge against increasing centralization/privacy pressure; he likes the Zcash-to-Bitcoin chart but would not replace his long-term Bitcoin spot holdings with it.
ZEC LONG
Watch 30-year yields and USD/JPY triggers
US 30-year yields and USD/JPY are near levels that can force policy action; if yields keep rising or the BOJ must defend the yen, the BOJ may sell US Treasuries, creating volatility events that could spill into Bitcoin and other risk assets, so these levels are important to monitor.
US30Y WATCH
USD/JPY WATCH
Crypto supply/demand is shifting more favorable
A year ago crypto suffered from too much new supply and few buybacks, but now many revenue-generating projects are buying back tokens or distributing revenue to holders while new project supply remains depressed, making the broad crypto supply/demand setup more interesting.
BITO LONG
Hold Bitcoin and gold as debasement hedges
With US debt pressures likely forcing some form of financial repression—yield pegging or inflation running above borrowing costs—and historical precedents such as 1933 gold seizure, he wants to hold Bitcoin as a pure monetary debasement hedge long term alongside gold, expecting hard assets to appreciate before any potential seizure or control.
GLD LONG
Bitcoin sellers exhausted, asymmetric spot long
He flipped bullish on Bitcoin in early August because the major risks that caused underperformance—quantum fears and the Saylor/STRC DAT overhang—had become widely known and largely priced after a 70% gold-terms drawdown. Saylor showed a path to remediating the overhang by selling Bitcoin to buy back STRC, sentiment was extremely negative, and he concluded sellers were exhausted, creating an asymmetric spot buying opportunity.
BTC LONG
HIGH
15:50
Sep 01
Sep 01
Thread Guy
3d
SOXL
GPRO 1ST
HOOD
Poly Market: September Fed no change
ELV 1ST
▾
HIGH
Tech and memory stocks look dangerous.
With bond yields parabolic, oil ripping and inflation forcing pressure on the Fed, Thread Guy says tech and memory stocks look ready to break down and would damage the rally; he specifically flags SOXL as ugly and dangerous relative to crypto.
SOXL AVOID
GoPro is a content influencer meme play.
Thread Guy treats GoPro as a new content/meme-stock trade: Markiplier's 8.5% stake disclosure and Togei's large public position turn stock trading into entertainment, and the social flywheel can create sharp upside even without GME-style short interest or strong fundamentals.
GPRO LONG
Robinhood wins from crypto onchain growth.
Robinhood is attractive because its crypto trading, prediction markets and memecoin activity are net new customers and revenue, and Robinhood chain is exploding and pulling users onchain.
HOOD LONG
September Fed no-change is the bet.
Thread Guy put on a Poly market position for no change at the September Fed meeting: Warsh may be hawkish, but Bessent and Warsh are aligned, Treasury financing is fragile, and he expects they won't hike into an oil supply shock.
Poly Market: September Fed no change LONG
Anthem is high-beta onchain expression.
If the onchain cycle continues at all, Thread Guy argues you should be bullish on Anthem/Anom coin as a high-beta expression of onchain mania, and he still thinks the chart looks good.
ELV LONG
Solana metrics are inflecting bullish.
Solana metrics are inflecting higher: transactions are up only, active addresses and chain fees are rising for the first time since January, and Robinhood chain expands the user base, so Thread Guy says it is Solana time.
SOL LONG
Hyperliquid has a US expansion catalyst.
Reports that Hyperliquid Labs is in advanced talks with Payward/Kraken to bring perpetuals to US traders would solve its main US regulatory problem; Thread Guy sees the chart as wanting to break higher.
HYPE LONG
Bitcoin shows relative strength amid chaos.
Will Clemente argues Bitcoin's major seller risks such as quantum fears and the STRK/DAT overhang are mostly priced in, seller exhaustion is evident, and forward drivers include US debt/financial repression and institutional ETF/treasury buying; he took a sizable spot position and plans to hold and accumulate dips.
BTC LONG
Pump.fun token looks ready to shine.
Pump.fun has cemented a strong spot as the top onchain launchpad with social leaderboards, buybacks and mania; Thread Guy personally holds it and thinks it is time for Pump to shine.
PUMP LONG
Zcash breaks decade range on privacy.
Will Clemente took a small personal Zcash position as potential beta to Bitcoin and a hedge against accelerating centralization/socialism, while keeping Bitcoin as his core debasement hedge.
ZEC LONG
HIGH
00:25
Sep 01
Sep 01
Thread Guy
4d
BTC
PUMP.FUN
ZEC
Polymarket: any state ban/pause police use of Flock cameras by Dec 31
TLT FLIP
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin remains bullish unless 75k breaks.
He remains bullish on Bitcoin at current and lower levels, says Saylor's high purchase is not a reason to nuke price, and wants Bitcoin to defend 78k and produce a real green daily; only a loss of 75k would signal big problems.
BTC LONG
These alts still have multiple upside.
He believes several onchain alts still have large multiples left, specifically Pump.fun, Hyperliquid, Lighter, and VVV, as the market follows the traditional Bitcoin-into-alts-into-onchain flow and pockets of giga outperformance appear onchain.
PUMP.FUN LONG
VVV LONG
HYPE LONG
LIT LONG
Zcash has aggressive buyers and outperformance.
He sold his BTC long and rotated heavily into Zcash because he believes Zcash has the most aggressive marginal buyers higher among alts; it outperformed almost every AI semis name over the past year while most crypto Twitter still fades it and few outside the niche pay attention.
ZEC LONG
State Flock camera ban is underrated.
He highlights a Polymarket contract on whether any state bans or pauses police use of Flock cameras by December 31, arguing a blue state like California could do it quickly following rising anti-surveillance backlash.
Polymarket: any state ban/pause police use of Flock cameras by Dec 31 LONG
Long-term Treasuries are breaking down.
The 30-year Treasury yield is spiking and the long-end chart is terrifying; he says this is good for debasement trades but bad for the world, and the bond market is a problem that cannot be manipulated easily.
TLT AVOID
Oil charts look bullish on escalation.
War and nuclear escalation are bringing fear back into oil; Brent and crude are up sharply and the Brent chart looks like a powerful upward move.
WTI LONG
BNO LONG
AMC chart looks pretty good.
AMC is up and its chart actually looks pretty good, which he flags even though he no longer holds the stock.
AMC LONG
SPY high timeframe looks bearish.
The S&P 500 and SPY high timeframe chart looks gnarly and not great as the market opens down sharply with escalation fears, implying equities are unattractive here.
SPY AVOID
GoPro small-cap with Markiplier catalyst.
Markiplier has acquired the largest individual stake in GoPro at 8.5%, the stock is up 18%, and the company is only a $130 million market cap, which he says is an insane setup he kind of likes.
GPRO LONG
STRK dividend coverage now much stronger.
Strategy has built roughly four years of cash coverage for its STRK preferred dividend commitments, a major improvement from under a year at peak panic, so the dividends are now well supported despite the large perpetual liability.
STRK LONG
Copper chart looks bullish.
He calls the copper chart beautiful and highlights copper strength as part of the current commodity/debasement setup.
COPPER LONG
Monero chart is best in crypto.
He says Monero has maybe the best chart in crypto right now, is up 5.4%, and is not getting enough discussion, fitting the anti-surveillance and private-money narrative.
XMR LONG
Legend Trade offers social perp trading.
He is an investor in Legend Trade and likes the live and social trading for perps thesis, comparing it to FOMO for perps, even though live trading competitions are gimmicky and require skill in a different format.
QXO-PB LONG
HIGH
15:42
Aug 31
Aug 31
Thread Guy
4d
XMR FLIP
GPRO 1ST
BTC
PUMP
ZEC
▾
HIGH
Monero chart strong, privacy narrative catalyst.
Monero has the best chart in crypto right now and is not getting enough discussion. It is a direct privacy-money beneficiary of the fast-building anti-surveillance and anti-Flock backlash, which he expects to send Monero and Zcash higher.
XMR LONG
Markiplier stake makes GoPro attractive.
GoPro is a tiny $130 million market-cap company, and Markiplier just became the largest individual shareholder with an 8.5% stake. The stock is up 18%, and Thread Guy says he kind of likes the trade, suggesting creator ownership and the small float can re-rate the story.
GPRO LONG
Bitcoin bullish above 75 support.
Thread Guy remains a Bitcoin bull while BTC holds 75; losing 75 would mean big problems. He downplays Michael Saylor's high-80K purchase as a reason to nuke and says a real green daily or a 79-80 reclaim would be encouraging. Later, he reads Bessent's 'no hikes into a supply shock' comments as supportive for Bitcoin and wants 79 before 76.
BTC LONG
Pump.fun app and launchpad remain strong.
Pump.fun is the core long he has not sold. He argues the launchpad still makes more money than Pawns, the crosschain trading app could be a multi-nine-figure product by itself, and big money wanting chain exposure will keep buying Pump. He would only sell on a Bitcoin breakdown below about 76 or upside euphoria.
PUMP LONG
Zcash has best higher marginal buyers.
Thread Guy rotated his Bitcoin long profits into Zcash and is extremely optimistic. He argues Zcash has the best marginal buyers higher among alts, outperformed nearly every AI semis name over the past year during a crypto bear market, and is the greatest meme coin. The anti-Flock/anti-surveillance private-money narrative should accelerate flows into Zcash.
ZEC LONG
Solana faces Robinhood chain existential threat.
Thread Guy is not a huge Solana bull. He thinks Solana's economics are not great, and Robinhood chain is the first chain to show a real ability to keep onchain activity off Solana. He views Robinhood chain as an existential threat to Solana as a whole, even though Solana is lindy.
SOL AVOID
Oil supported by Iran war escalation.
War is back on the menu after Trump's Iran escalation posts, and oil is reacting. Brent and crude are up around 2.7-2.8% with charts he calls scary or sender-like. He highlights the geopolitical oil setup as an event-driven move to monitor.
BNO WATCH
WTI WATCH
Copper chart is bullish.
Copper is up 1%, and Thread Guy says it is a beautiful chart for him, indicating a bullish chart setup on copper.
COPPER LONG
Onchain crypto mania is underway.
His biggest crypto bull case is that the bull market is not in Bitcoin but in onchain crypto. He says onchain mania has already begun, with Robinhood chain coins, huge FOMO leaderboard P&Ls, and viral retail-onboarding stories like $99 to $170k. These viral wins bring new people into crypto and power the next leg.
Onchain crypto LONG
Pawns is Pump's first real threat.
Pawns is the first real threat to Pump's launchpad because it lives on Robinhood chain rather than Solana, hit an ATH in fees/revenue, and got listed on Hyperliquid. He did not trade it but sees it as a genuine challenger and setup rather than another Bonk-style temporary challenge.
Pawns WATCH
HIGH
16:18
Aug 29
Aug 29
Thread Guy
6d
BTC
COPPER
Polymarket: US-Iran blockade ending by Oct 31
Polymarket: US-Iran diplomatic meeting
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin hinges on Warsh's Jackson Hole tone.
Jackson Hole is a binary event for Bitcoin: if Kevin Warsh is extremely hawkish and pushes back on Treasury yield-curve control, Bitcoin and crypto would get destroyed; if he shows any weakness or says anything else, the market is expected to eat him alive and crypto continues ripping. After Warsh's speech, Thread Guy notes Bitcoin is back above $80,000 and ripping.
BTC WATCH
Copper looks amazing, remain long.
Thread Guy says copper looks amazing and has looked strong for a while during his market open review.
COPPER LONG
Bet against blockade ending by October.
Pa sees the Iran war entering a stalemate with no return to kinetic strikes, and believes the blockade will remain up longer than markets expect because the US has given up on a deal and Iran will not concede. He is betting against the blockade ending by October 31, where he says you can almost double your money.
Polymarket: US-Iran blockade ending by Oct 31 SHORT
Fade Trump's US-Iran meeting claims.
In Polymarket markets on whether the US and Iran would hold a diplomatic or peace meeting, Trump repeatedly says meetings will happen and prices pump; Pa buys the NO side because Trump often says it for market reaction or wishful thinking and the meeting does not happen.
Polymarket: US-Iran diplomatic meeting SHORT
HIGH
16:14
Aug 28
Aug 28
Thread Guy
7d
ZEC
PUMP.FUN
TTWO
XMR
COPPER
▾
HIGH
Privacy narrative makes Zcash under-owned
Privacy is the most mispriced narrative of the next decade and is hyper accelerating. Thread Guy says smart money holds Zcash, privacy coins are going to get rerated extremely high, and he has had long exposure, even though usage remains low.
ZEC LONG
Pump.fun revenue real, no one owns
At a sharp-money cabal dinner, no sophisticated participant owned Pump despite real and persistent fee revenue. Thread Guy argues Pump.fun is either a RICO case or one of the most undervalued assets in market history, with fees.pump showing record revenue such as $2.9 million and strong onchain social trading activity.
PUMP.FUN LONG
GTA 6 massive but attention competition
GTA 6 is visually stunning and will be massive, but Thread Guy questions whether it can win the attention battle against TikTok, Pump.fun, and short-form dopamine competition. He is not short the Take-Two trade and notes Chris Camlo is long, but he frames the setup as mixed and possibly priced in after the trailer.
TTWO WATCH
Monero chart looks unbelievable but suppressed
Within the privacy-coin narrative, Thread Guy says Monero has real utility and a long-term chart that looks unbelievable, but it has historically failed to rally and appears super suppressed, with pops historically tied to crime events. He frames it as a fascinating setup rather than a clean long.
XMR WATCH
Copper chart remains strong
Thread Guy says copper looks amazing and has looked amazing for a while, a simple bullish chart/trend observation during the market-open segment.
COPPER LONG
Iran blockade lasts longer than priced
Pota sees the Iran conflict entering a stalemate: no restart of kinetic strikes, the US wanting light pressure without spooking markets, and Iran refusing to give in. He expects the blockade to remain up longer than markets price and bets against a diplomatic meeting and against the blockade ending by October 31.
Polymarket: Iran blockade ending by Oct 31 SHORT
Polymarket: US-Iran diplomatic meeting SHORT
Solana disinflation vote is bullish
The Solana proposal to reduce inflation by increasing the disinflation rate from 15% to 30% is expected to pass, and Thread Guy treats the outcome as bullish for Solana. He says Solana is ripping, calls it a free long into the pass, and sends Solana long.
SOL LONG
Debasement narrative supports Bitcoin upside
The Treasury debasement narrative after Scott Bessent's yield-curve move is the core reason Bitcoin popped. Ahead of Jackson Hole, Thread Guy believes the most likely path is that Fed Chair Warsh is not shockingly hawkish, so the market keeps ripping; the only dangerous path is Warsh explicitly repudiating Bessent and sounding extremely hawkish. He says nothing changed for him and he remains long.
BTC LONG
HIGH
16:00
Aug 28
Aug 28
Thread Guy
7d
ZACK
ETH
AVAX
LTC
ARB
▾
HIGH
Stacking ZACK as momentum and upgrades continue.
ZACK has strong momentum and the Ironwood upgrade provided a good buying opportunity, making it an attractive asset to continue accumulating on the way up.
ZACK LONG
Legacy altcoins will bleed as capital rotates.
Legacy altcoins like Ethereum, Avalanche, Litecoin, Arbitrum, Optimism, and Solana are overvalued 'dead money' that do not generate revenue, and they will continue to bleed as capital rotates into productive assets.
ETH AVOID
AVAX AVOID
LTC AVOID
ARB AVOID
OP AVOID
Pump generates real revenue while Solana struggles.
Pump generates far more revenue than Solana, and its users literally sell SOL to buy PUMP. Solana faces intense competition, lacks pricing power, and is overvalued compared to traditional exchanges like NASDAQ.
PUMP LONG
SOL SHORT
Hyperliquid leads decentralized exchanges and generates revenue.
Hyperliquid is far in the lead as a decentralized exchange, making real money and serving as the productive, revenue-generating component of a perfect crypto barbell portfolio alongside Bitcoin.
HYPE LONG
Reallocating trading profits into Zcash and Hyperliquid.
Taking profits from active trading and reallocating them into Zcash and Hyperliquid as part of a broader portfolio strategy.
ZEC LONG
Legacy DeFi tokens extract value and underperform.
Legacy DeFi tokens like Compound, Aave, and Uniswap have toxic equity splits, extract value from their DAOs without rewarding token holders, and should go to zero as capital rotates to fairer projects.
AAVE SHORT
UNI SHORT
COMP SHORT
AI infrastructure faces political backlash and overvaluation.
The AI buildout resembles the 2000 dot-com bubble where infrastructure runs up before profitable businesses materialize. Data center investors haven't modeled the political backlash and rising energy costs, which will slow the buildout and hurt Nvidia's circular financing.
NVDA AVOID
ORCL AVOID
GLXY AVOID
Macro stress makes Bitcoin a strong hold.
While this cycle is intellectually dominated by onchain revenue-generating projects, macro stress on the dollar system and geopolitics make Bitcoin a strong base collateral play, looking technically sound as long as it holds above 72k.
BTC LONG
HIGH
23:06
Aug 27
Aug 27
Thread Guy
8d
Onchain memecoins
CASHCAT 1ST
CC 1ST
Newly listed memecoins
SOL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Onchain memecoins may be starting bull.
Insentos sees onchain trading heating up sharply: volume is huge, new narratives spawn every day, major players like Anom, CZ, and Vlad are returning or active, and that signals a possible broad bull market in onchain memecoins is brewing.
Onchain memecoins LONG
CashCat is Robinhood's standard-setting runner.
He got bullish on CashCat later than most, built a 1.1% position around $100-120M market cap, held through a $1.5M drawdown near $30M, and added more after the Robinhood listing selloff because he believed Robinhood would push CashCat as its main runner, retail buyers on Robinhood would compound volume and holders in small sizes, and the team and community never gave up, making CashCat a potential standard-setter for the Robin Hood chain.
CASHCAT LONG
Insentos also holds Creative Capital CC.
He says CashCat is the main position he is focused on but he is also holding another related coin, CC/Creative Capital; his style is to concentrate in one main position so he can manage anxiety and avoid stressing over multiple positions.
CC LONG
Don't sell listings; let volume compound.
He argues the best way to trade listings now is not to sell the listing catalyst; although some Coinbase listings left a bad taste, listings compound volume and holders over time, so if you already hold a coin that gets listed you should become more bullish, and if you are looking to buy, a listing can be a good entry because the effects build over time.
Newly listed memecoins LONG
Solana keeps narrative meme coin franchise.
While Robinhood is doing well in memes, tech coins, and RWAs because Vlad understands volume and is money-hungry, Solana and Pump.fun still own the narrative/Elon-tweet coin franchise, and those coins will not run on BNB, Robinhood, or Base; as long as narratives and tweets launch on Pump.fun, Solana is not structurally threatened there.
SOL LONG
Robinhood chain is winning volume game.
Robinhood's chain is doing so well because Vlad is aware of what it takes to run a chain, is volume-focused and money-hungry, and is simultaneously pushing memes, RWA, and tech coins; this is bringing huge volume and makes Robinhood a strong venue for those assets.
Robinhood chain memecoins LONG
HIGH
17:00
Aug 27
Aug 27
Thread Guy
8d
NVDA
BTC
ZACK 1ST
ETH 1ST
AVAX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nvidia needs historic earnings to avoid dumping.
Nvidia faces an extremely high bar for its upcoming earnings report, needing to post the greatest earnings in history just to avoid a dump, making it a dangerous hold.
NVDA AVOID
Bitcoin is extremely close to absolute mania.
Bitcoin is hovering around 78k and is just one or two hourly candles away from absolute mania, with a rip to 82k likely to ignite the hottest onchain run ever.
BTC LONG
Stacking Zack for the Ironwood upgrade momentum.
Zack is a strong coin with positive momentum that was initially bought for the Ironwood upgrade, and it remains a high-conviction long to keep stacking on the way up.
ZACK LONG
Legacy altcoins are dead money lacking revenue.
Older altcoins like Ethereum, Avalanche, Litecoin, Arbitrum, and Optimism are essentially dead money because they do not generate revenue, and investors are tricking themselves by holding them.
ETH AVOID
AVAX AVOID
LTC AVOID
ARB AVOID
OP AVOID
Sell overvalued Solana to buy profitable Pump.
Solana is overpriced, faces intense competition from Hyperliquid and Lighter, and lacks pricing power, making it a prime asset to sell in order to fund purchases of Pump, which actually accrues value.
SOL SHORT
PUMP LONG
Robinhood is underpriced due to onchain volume.
Robinhood is likely underpriced because traditional equity investors are not fully aware of the massive RWA and onchain volume currently happening on the Robinhood chain.
HOOD LONG
HIGH
15:50
Aug 27
Aug 27
Thread Guy
8d
PUMP
ANOM
ZACK 1ST
SPX6900 1ST
CASH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Pump chart looks incredible amid surging volume.
Thread Guy is heavily long Pump, noting that its daily chart looks incredible and the Pump/SOL pair is at all-time highs. He highlights that Pump Fun is doing massive volume and revenue ($2.4M yesterday), with FOMO users and daily active traders surging, creating a beautiful symbiotic relationship.
PUMP LONG
Anomcoin must run to validate social trading.
Thread Guy believes Anomcoin has one of the best charts in crypto and needs to go really high (potentially to $1B+) to validate the social trading narrative that underpins this cycle.
ANOM WATCH
Rotating Bitcoin profits into a ZACK long.
Thread Guy plans to rotate his Bitcoin profits into a ZACK long, noting that the ZACK daily chart looks incredible and he is ready to buy it once Bitcoin sweeps 82k.
ZACK LONG
SPX6900 looks poised for all-time highs.
Thread Guy notes that SPX6900 has doubled from its lows and looks like it wants to break out to all-time highs, calling the chart very strong.
SPX6900 LONG
Cash Cat will lead the Robinhood chain.
Incentos is holding a massive position in Cash Cat, believing it will be the coin that sets the standard for the Robinhood chain in this bull market. He notes that Robinhood is highly incentivized to push the coin and that the community and team never gave up even when it drew down to a $30M market cap.
CASH LONG
Rain and clouds will keep NY cooler.
Beef Slayer is betting on the lower temperature brackets for New York on Polymarket, noting that incoming rain and cloud cover give a chance that the high temperature will stay lower than the forecasted 80-83 degrees.
New York High Temperature SHORT
Catch leg to 82k, then rotate.
Thread Guy is long Bitcoin from 68k but plans to catch the next leg up to 82k, sell half into cash, and rotate the rest into a ZACK long. He believes the chart looks incredibly strong and wants to break up, supported by eight consecutive days of strong ETF inflows.
BTC LONG
Solana broke key levels, targeting much higher.
Despite being previously uninterested in Solana, Thread Guy acknowledges it just broke a key level and looks poised to run to $148-$150. He notes that Solana going up is important for the broader crypto market because retail and VCs still have massive exposure to it.
SOL LONG
HIGH
15:44
Aug 26
Aug 26
Thread Guy
9d
HOOD
PUMP
UNI 1ST
Oura Ring
SOL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Robinhood's growing on-chain activity is currently underpriced.
Robinhood's on-chain activity is growing rapidly, and traditional stock investors are not pricing in how seriously the company is taking its on-chain strategy and the potential upside from this new volume.
HOOD LONG
Record daily revenue makes Pump a buy.
Pump is generating massive revenue, reaching $2.4 million in a single day through buybacks, and the high timeframe chart looks incredibly strong, making it a highly attractive long position.
PUMP LONG
Legacy DeFi tokens extract value without returns.
Legacy DeFi tokens have toxic equity splits that extract value from token holders without returning revenue, making them overvalued compared to newer on-chain projects that actively buy back supply.
UNI AVOID
AAVE AVOID
COMP AVOID
Fading consumer interest makes Oura's IPO unattractive.
The health optimization trend is a fading COVID-era phenomenon, and mainstream consumers are losing interest in extreme health tracking, making the upcoming Oura Ring IPO a fade.
Oura Ring AVOID
Solana is overpriced and lacks pricing power.
Solana is overpriced compared to traditional exchanges like NASDAQ despite having more competition and less volume, and it lacks pricing power because front-end apps can easily reroute order flow to other chains.
SOL AVOID
AI infrastructure spending resembles the dot-com bubble.
The AI infrastructure buildout resembles the 2000 dot-com bubble with Cisco, where massive capital is spent on hardware without profitable downstream businesses materializing yet, making AI stocks unattractive at current valuations.
NVDA AVOID
Hyperliquid is a yield-generating blue-chip crypto asset.
Hyperliquid has grown enough to attract patient, institutional capital, acting as a blue-chip crypto asset that generates yield rather than just serving as a non-productive store of value.
HYPE LONG
Strong ETF inflows support a Bitcoin breakout.
Bitcoin looks strong on high timeframes and is seeing consistent nine-figure daily ETF inflows, setting the stage for a potential mania breakout if it crosses the $82k level.
BTC LONG
Recent network upgrades give Zcash strong momentum.
Zcash has picked up momentum following a recent network upgrade, making it an attractive asset to accumulate as it continues its upward trajectory.
ZEC LONG
HIGH
06:13
Aug 26
Aug 26
Thread Guy
10d
PUMP
BTC
XMR
MSTR
AVGO
▾
HIGH
Holding PUMP for another potential breakout.
Refusing to sell PUMP at current levels because the chart pattern resembles a higher timeframe consolidation that typically precedes another major breakout.
PUMP LONG
Bitcoin price action looks very strong.
Bitcoin's price action looks incredibly strong after breaking $80,000 and experiencing a minor pullback, indicating a bullish setup.
BTC LONG
Monero is a terrible asset to trade.
Monero is a terrible trade to hold because it trades very poorly despite having actual utility.
XMR AVOID
Watch MicroStrategy as it resumes buying Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy's premium is resetting, which means the company could resume buying Bitcoin this week, creating an important dynamic to monitor.
MSTR WATCH
Broadcom's new inference chip outperforms Nvidia's.
Broadcom's new Jalapeno inference chip reportedly outperforms Nvidia's GB300 in throughput per watt and latency, which could be a significant positive catalyst for the stock.
AVGO WATCH
Copper chart looks incredibly strong right now.
Copper has one of the best-looking charts across all markets right now, presenting a highly attractive technical setup.
COPPER LONG
HIGH
15:24
Aug 25
Aug 25
Thread Guy
10d
BTC
HYPE
AVGO
XMR FLIP
PUMP
▾
HIGH
Treasury interventions and debt strengthen debasement trades.
The US Treasury's buyback operations and massive national debt are driving a strong debasement narrative, making Gold and Bitcoin attractive trades to hold against fiat devaluation.
BTC LONG
GLD LONG
Native Hyperliquid token has a bullish chart.
While meme coins on the Hyperliquid chain are unattractive due to high costs and lack of edge, the native Hyperliquid token itself has the best-looking high-timeframe chart among all altcoins.
HYPE LONG
Broadcom's new inference chip outperforms Nvidia's GB300.
Broadcom's new Jalapeno chip reportedly outperforms Nvidia's GB300 in per-watt and response latency testing for inference, which could be a major positive sentiment driver for the stock.
AVGO WATCH
Monero trades poorly with terrible price action.
Monero is a terrible trade with poor price action, acting like a version of Zcash that people actually use but failing to perform well in the market.
XMR AVOID
Pump's high-timeframe chart pattern signals another rip.
Pump is exhibiting a strong high-timeframe chart pattern characterized by massive rips followed by pullbacks and consolidation, setting it up for another major leg up alongside Bitcoin.
PUMP LONG
Tibber lacks clear information or use case.
Tibber is uninvestable because it has been out for two years but remains in stealth mode with absolutely no clear information or use case available to justify buying it.
TIBBER AVOID
FWA's NFT spin mechanism generates massive revenue.
Despite cursed price action, FWA is generating massive revenue and offering insane yields through its highly successful and fair NFT spin mechanism, making the token an attractive hold.
FWA LONG
Bitcoin breakout above $82k will ignite altcoins.
If Bitcoin successfully breaks the critical $82,000 resistance level, it will trigger a massive on-chain bull market, sending altcoins like Pump, Hype, and VVV to all-time highs.
VVV LONG
HIGH
20:40
Aug 24
Aug 24
Thread Guy
11d
BTC FLIP
GLD
COPPER
30-year Treasury bonds
HOOD
▾
HIGH
Irresponsible not to own Bitcoin now.
The Treasury revealed it can tap up to $950 billion in cash for expanded bond buybacks, signaling long-end yield control; this debasement hedge dynamic is a direct bullish catalyst for Bitcoin, and the speaker says it now feels irresponsible not to own some Bitcoin or Bitcoin beta exposure.
BTC LONG
Gold likes Treasury buyback debasement.
Gold is acting as a key debasement hedge after the Treasury buyback announcement; it 'really likes' the news, is up about 1.5%, and has an 'insane' chart setup.
GLD LONG
Copper chart looks breakout-ready.
Copper is showing isolated commodity strength, up 1% while equities are red, and its chart 'looks like it's going to go for it,' signaling a bullish breakout setup.
COPPER LONG
Treasury buybacks can lower long-end yields.
The Treasury can tap up to $950 billion to fund expanded long-end bond buybacks, has doubled minimum longer-dated buybacks to $4 billion, and is signaling larger purchases; this gives it firepower to push long-term yields lower, making 30-year Treasury yields the key thing to watch.
30-year Treasury bonds WATCH
Robinhood crypto push is aggressive.
Robinhood and Vlad Tenev are moving aggressively into crypto with a focused plan; the Cash Cat listing was a 'master class,' and Robinhood chain plus tokenized stock tokens show the company is waking up the market, making HOOD an exciting crypto narrative.
HOOD LONG
CEX listing wars boost early memecoins.
Coinbase listed Basecat, DRB, Dolphin, VBVS, and Grass at around $10M market caps, a major shift from its late-listing history; combined with Robinhood's Cash Cat move, a full-blown CEX listing war is starting as exchanges compete for a growing pool of traders, which benefits early-listed small-cap onchain assets.
Basecat LONG
DRB LONG
Dolphin LONG
Cash Cat LONG
VBVS LONG
GRASS LONG
VVV is cheap versus OpenRouter.
OpenRouter's sale at $7 billion makes VVV, described as its best comparable, look dramatically cheaper at under $1 billion market cap; this creates a clear relative-valuation disconnect.
VVV LONG
China now leads AI and robotics.
A stealth Chinese open-source frontier model is being called incredible, and the speaker argues China has moved from lagging the US by six months to having the leading LLM; Chinese robotics also delivered a 'master class,' making China a leader in AI and robotics.
Chinese AI/robotics LONG
HIGH
02:48
Aug 22
Aug 22
Thread Guy
14d
PUMP
BTC
SILVER
MSTR FLIP
▾
HIGH
Pump.Fun is structural crypto social trading winner.
Pump.Fun is his biggest position and he has sold none because crypto's plumbing and psychology have structurally changed; Pump is a revenue monster and the biggest beneficiary of social trading and on-chain experimentation. He expects real mania when social trading apps reach about 100 million users, and that is when he would sell.
PUMP LONG
Buy Bitcoin dips below 70k.
He plans to buy Bitcoin on pullbacks rather than chase the ripping tape, specifically trying to add spots below $70k and if BTC is accepted below $66-67k during a breakout retrace. He expects leverage-driven flushes and shakeouts to create entries before the market runs back.
BTC LONG
Silver high timeframe looks bullish.
Silver's high-timeframe chart looks pretty good and is an interesting setup, with silver up about 2.5% on the day.
SILVER LONG
US Bitcoin reserve bullish BTC, bearish MSTR.
He predicts the US government will announce a $100 billion Bitcoin purchase program and a nationalization of Strategy within 24 months. In that scenario, MSTR's premium collapses and it may be forced to sell Bitcoin, while long-term Bitcoin bulls get discounted coins.
MSTR AVOID
HIGH
14:47
Aug 21
Aug 21
Thread Guy
14d
COIN
LIT 1ST
ZEC
PUMP
ADA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Crypto is entering a new bull market.
Crypto is on the cusp of a new spot trading bull market driven by the end of a 370-day bear cycle, post-halving seasonality, and upcoming regulatory clarity. Coinbase is well-positioned as it has diversified its revenue into derivatives, prediction markets, stablecoins, and agentic finance.
COIN LONG
The crypto cycle has bottomed; long revenue.
The digital asset cycle has bottomed, with Bitcoin and Ethereum reclaiming their 200-day moving averages. The market will heavily favor real revenue-generating protocols (like HYPE, Lighter, Pump, VVV, and DRV) over garbage crypto-native assets, which will present great short opportunities as they fade quickly.
LIT LONG
BTC LONG
DRV LONG
ETH LONG
Independent ecosystem coins will outperform the market.
The market is rewarding coins that have solidified themselves with independent ecosystems of buyers that do not rely on the rest of crypto. Assets like Zcash, Hyperliquid, VVV, and Pump Fun stand on their own and are going parabolic as a result.
ZEC LONG
Pump Fun will benefit from on-chain mania.
The digital asset cycle has bottomed, with Bitcoin and Ethereum reclaiming their 200-day moving averages. The market will heavily favor real revenue-generating protocols (like HYPE, Lighter, Pump, VVV, and DRV) over garbage crypto-native assets, which will present great short opportunities as they fade quickly.
PUMP LONG
HYPE LONG
VVV LONG
Older altcoins are ghost towns lacking buyers.
Older altcoins like AVAX, Cardano, SEI, SUI, and BeraChain are complete ghost towns with no buyers. Despite the broader market rally, these coins are trading below their FTX or recent crash lows, making them unattractive assets to hold.
ADA AVOID
AVAX AVOID
BERA AVOID
SEI AVOID
SUI AVOID
Tokenization of assets is entering a supercycle.
Tokenization is at the beginning of a supercycle that will take over the entire financial system. Tokenized US stocks and private companies offer 24/7 trading, portability, and instant settlement, providing significant advantages over traditional financial infrastructure.
Tokenized assets WATCH
Robinhood stock is breaking out strongly.
Robinhood's stock is breaking out strongly on high timeframes. The company has a higher-earning margin business despite underinvesting in it, making it an attractive setup.
HOOD LONG
HIGH
10:00
Aug 21
Aug 21
Thread Guy
14d
PUMP.FUN
BTC
30-year U.S. Treasuries
GLD
SPY
▾
HIGH
Pump.fun earns despite crypto weakness.
Pump.fun was generating about a million dollars per day even during brutal crypto conditions with ETF outflows and low DeFi participation, proving standalone demand; Thread Guy got extremely long and sees it leading the risk-on cycle.
PUMP.FUN LONG
Bitcoin absorbed selling; Bessent sparked rally.
Bitcoin absorbed selling pressure from Saylor and bad news without breaking down, and then got a strong catalyst from Bessent's yield-curve-control/debasement signal; Thread Guy says he is long Bitcoin.
BTC LONG
Treasury will suppress long-end yields.
Treasury changed refunding guidance and doubled long-end buybacks out of cycle; Bessent is signaling a whatever-it-takes stance to suppress long-end yields, though the market has not fully accepted it yet and this is early in the escalation.
30-year U.S. Treasuries WATCH
Bitcoin and gold are debasement hedges.
The Treasury's QE-like long-end buybacks weaken the dollar and question US assets; classic debasement assets Bitcoin and gold are non-US pure expressions of that trade.
GLD LONG
Lower dollar reduces foreign US equity demand.
US equities have not done well on the intervention because a lower dollar reduces foreign buyers' currency-adjusted returns, leading to marginally less interest in US assets.
SPY AVOID
Eli Lilly chart looks great at highs.
In biotech, Eli Lilly just made an all-time high and its high-time-frame chart looks great.
LLY LONG
Hyperliquid has standalone demand and regulatory catalyst.
Hyperliquid has built a standalone buyer base completely agnostic to Bitcoin and the rest of crypto, supported by TradFi adoption; the Trump/CFTC announcement that they are working to bring Hyperliquid to the U.S. in a legal fashion is a massive euphoric catalyst.
HYPE LONG
Zcash has standalone privacy buyer base.
Zcash has carved out its own buyer base of wealthy tech insiders who want privacy and are indifferent to Bitcoin and meme coins, letting it rally on its own while Bitcoin did nothing.
ZEC LONG
HIGH
09:41
Aug 21
Aug 21
Thread Guy
14d
ARCG 1ST
TWST 1ST
MU
GLD
TLT 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI companies are pivoting to biotech narratives.
AI research labs are facing negative gross margins and decelerating inference revenue, so they are pivoting their narrative toward bioinformatics and curing disease to justify valuations and potentially ban open-source competition under national security guises. This will drive massive capital into the biotech sector.
ARCG LONG
TWST LONG
XBI LONG
MRNA LONG
Memory chipmakers locked in long-term AI contracts.
Memory companies are crushing it because they have secured three-year fixed contractual commitments, capturing roughly 70% of AI capex, and pricing for 2027 looks even tighter than 2026.
MU LONG
WDC LONG
000660.KS LONG
G10 currency debasement strongly favors gold.
G10 countries are exhibiting emerging market-like behavior with massive deficits and yield curve interventions, making the structural macro trade long gold versus short fixed income.
GLD LONG
TLT SHORT
Saylor survived the stress test and buys.
The market attempted to break Michael Saylor by pressing MicroStrategy, but he survived the test; with the stock still trading at a reasonable NAV premium, he will continue successfully selling equity to buy more Bitcoin.
MSTR LONG
Privacy coins are surviving and technologically improving.
Crypto technology is improving through a Darwinian culling of weak projects; Zcash has recovered from its hack, and Monero is highly attractive because owning tracked Bitcoin doesn't make sense for privacy-conscious users.
ZEC LONG
XMR LONG
Binance and Hyperliquid will dominate tokenized stocks.
Tokenized stocks provide real tradable assets for crypto, and centralized exchanges with strong jurisdictional clarity in places like Abu Dhabi (Binance) or regulatory favor (Hyperliquid) will dominate this space.
HYPE LONG
BNB LONG
OpenAI's ad business will severely hurt Google.
OpenAI is poised to build a massive advertising business leveraging its hundreds of millions of daily active users, which will turn search into a multi-player market and severely damage Google's monopoly. Anthropic is less attractive due to enterprise churn.
GOOGL SHORT
ANTHROPIC AVOID
Aggressive market breakout favors high-momentum crypto.
The crypto market is experiencing a massive, aggressive breakout rather than a bear market rally, making high-momentum plays like Pump.fun extremely attractive as they surge upward.
PUMP.FUN LONG
Regulatory clarity and retail speculation favor XRP.
XRP is positioned for a significant pump because retail investors are ready to speculate, Trump is showing favor to Ripple's leadership, and passing the Clarity Act could send the token to $2.40.
XRP LONG
Ultra-fast inference will be a UX gamechanger.
Cerebras's upcoming ultra-fast inference technology will be a massive user experience gamechanger for coding, making them and related Japanese wafer suppliers interesting trades despite recent earnings misses.
CBRS WATCH
Japanese wafer players WATCH
VVV is succeeding as uncensored consumer AI.
VVV is a sleeper consumer AI play on-chain that has achieved breakout success and $100M annualized revenue with non-crypto native users, benefiting strongly from the uncensored AI narrative.
VVV LONG
AI giants will acquire data-rich biotech small-caps.
Small-cap biotherapeutics with proprietary data pipelines, like Tempus AI, are strong buys because mega-cap AI companies will acquire them at premiums to support their own trillion-dollar healthcare narratives.
Small-cap biotherapeutics LONG
TEM LONG
Tether Gold is a superior physical proxy.
Tether Gold is the preferred way to invest in gold because it is cheap to own and eliminates the need to personally secure a physical Swiss gold vault.
XAUT LONG
Overvalued Puerto Rico utility faces sharp correction.
The utility company managing Puerto Rico's grid (Quanta Services) is up 600% due to AI power deals, despite failing to keep the lights on locally; this extreme run-up is likely to face a sharp 30% normalization downward.
PWR SHORT
Strong leadership and upgrades make Solana attractive.
Solana is an attractive L1 for institutional capital because Anatoly Yakovenko remains highly focused and grinding, and the upcoming Firedancer upgrade is expected to perform well.
SOL LONG
Macro debasement and political shifts favor crypto.
A perfect storm for a crypto bull market is forming due to G10 currency debasement, the fading appeal of the AI inference narrative, and a pro-crypto shift in US political policy.
BTC LONG
HIGH
03:21
Aug 21
Aug 21
Thread Guy
15d
WDC 1ST
GOOGL
XBI FLIP
BTC FLIP
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Memory makers locked in long-term tight pricing.
Memory companies have locked in three-year deals and pricing is expected to be even tighter in 2027. The only bear case is mass customer bankruptcy, making them a strong hold.
WDC LONG
KS LONG
MU LONG
OpenAI's ad business will destroy Google's monopoly.
OpenAI is forced to build a massive advertising business to pay for its data centers, which will turn the search market into a multi-player arena and severely hurt Google's monopoly.
GOOGL SHORT
AI companies pivot to biotech for narratives.
The AI inference business is facing ROI issues and customer pushback, so AI companies are pivoting to biotherapeutics and genomics to create an unfalsifiable bull thesis and justify banning open-source models under national security. Small-cap biotherapeutics with data pipelines, like Tempus AI, will run as acquisition targets.
XBI LONG
TEM LONG
Genomics LONG
Fiat debasement drives gold and crypto outperformance.
G10 countries are exhibiting emerging market-like behavior with massive debt and currency interventions, leading to a structural debasement of fiat. In this environment, gold and crypto will perpetually outperform fixed income.
BTC LONG
GLD LONG
Biotech testing boom causes lab monkey shortages.
The pivot to bioinformatics and testing acceleration has created a material shortage of lab monkeys, making publicly traded Chinese monkey companies a strong long position.
Chinese lab monkey suppliers LONG
Surviving privacy coins offer better untracked value.
The Darwinian explosion of hacking in crypto has eliminated weak teams, leaving survivors like Zcash stronger. Monero is preferred over tracked Bitcoin for privacy.
ZEC LONG
XMR LONG
Enterprises prefer cheaper, private on-prem AI solutions.
Enterprises are wary of data retention issues and high costs from Anthropic and OpenAI, leading to successful pitches from companies like Palantir and Atlassian that help clients host their own cheaper, private AI services.
PLTR LONG
TEAM LONG
Bolting AI onto existing products is failing.
Companies that simply try to bolt AI chatbots onto their existing products are failing because customers just want to talk to humans and the AI features are expensive without adding real value.
HUBS SHORT
Extreme AI power valuations will normalize downward.
Quanta Services is up 600% on AI power deals, but the underlying reality in places like Puerto Rico is rolling blackouts. The extreme valuation is likely to normalize and face a 30% downward correction.
PWR SHORT
Saylor survived the market test and buys.
Michael Saylor survived the market's attempt to blow him up, and MSTR is still trading at a reasonable MNAV. Since he survived the test, he will continue to buy more Bitcoin, supporting the stock.
MSTR LONG
Non-US crypto platforms win regulatory arbitrage.
With regulatory uncertainty in the US, centralized exchanges like Binance and L1s outside the US like Solana and Ethereum are best positioned to capture volume, especially in tokenized stocks.
SOL LONG
ETH LONG
BNB LONG
HYPE LONG
Anthropic faces churn and enterprise spending cuts.
Anthropic is struggling in the enterprise inference business as customers cut bills, and they face churn risk. OpenAI has a better product and will build a massive ad business, making Anthropic's IPO one to avoid.
ANTHROPIC AVOID
Tether Gold is a cheap physical proxy.
Tether Gold is a cheap and based way to own physical gold without needing a Swiss vault, making it a preferred gold investment vehicle.
XAUT LONG
Ultra-fast inference will disrupt existing AI models.
Cerebras' upcoming ultra-fast inference will be a massive user experience gamechanger for coding, causing churn away from existing models like Anthropic.
CBRS WATCH
Regulatory clarity could send XRP to $2.40.
XRP is highly responsive to positive regulatory news and Trump administration support. If the Clarity Act passes, it could see a massive re-rating to $2.40.
XRP LONG
HIGH
22:16
Aug 20
Aug 20
Thread Guy
15d
BTC
▾
MED
Bond buybacks support debasement assets like Bitcoin.
Bond buybacks are a major signal of ongoing policy escalation that is likely to continue into the November midterms; because the bond market will be slow to price this resolve, the speaker wants to ride the coattails through classic debasement assets such as Bitcoin.
BTC LONG
MED
18:29
Aug 20
Aug 20
Thread Guy
15d
Non-Bitcoin crypto assets
▾
MED
Crypto assets decoupling from Bitcoin beta.
This cycle is different from the prior two cycles: rather than Bitcoin being the main engine and everything else rising as Bitcoin beta, the reason to be excited again is that a few crypto asset pockets have carved out their own standalone existence that is completely separate from Bitcoin.
Non-Bitcoin crypto assets LONG
MED
17:45
Aug 20
Aug 20
Thread Guy
15d
GLD 1ST
BTC 1ST
DXY 1ST
SPY 1ST
US long-end Treasuries
▾
HIGH
Gold is clean debasement hedge amid suppression.
Treasury is effectively running yield-curve control by funding long-end buybacks with T-bills; this QE-like operation debases the dollar. Gold is the cleaner debasement exposure because it is not a US asset, faces less currency-hedging/cross-border flow risk, and has extra demand from foreign official buyers such as China.
GLD LONG
Bitcoin washed-out debasement bet, six-month horizon.
Bitcoin is a non-US debasement asset tied to the same Treasury yield suppression and lower-dollar theme; its market structure is washed out after hawkish rate fears, liquidations have cleared sellers, and he has been buying with a roughly six-month horizon even though confidence is lower than gold.
BTC LONG
Dollar is debasement exhaust valve, lower expected.
The dollar is the exhaust valve of Treasury yield-curve control and debasement; buyback-driven long-end suppression and QE-like Treasury operations push the dollar lower, and he expects continued dollar weakness as intervention escalates.
DXY AVOID
Lower dollar damps foreign US equity demand.
Lower dollar from Treasury intervention erodes currency-hedged returns for foreign buyers who have been large marginal buyers of US equities; even if US stocks rise in local terms, foreign holders can lose on the currency leg, reducing demand for US assets.
SPY AVOID
Treasury will escalate long-end yield suppression.
Treasury changed refunding guidance and suddenly doubled long-end buybacks, signaling an escalating yield-curve-control regime aimed at keeping long-end yields lower into midterms; Bessent has indicated he will do more, so the setup is to monitor and not fight the Treasury on the long end.
US long-end Treasuries WATCH
HIGH
15:57
Aug 20
Aug 20
Thread Guy
15d
PUMP.FUN
ETH
SPY 1ST
HYPE
LIT
▾
HIGH
Long Pump.Fun on revenue acceleration.
Thread Guy is very long Pump.Fun. He says Pump.Fun was doing $1M+ per day in revenue during the worst crypto conditions, just printed a $1.1M buyback and $2M revenue day, is making money by selling SOL, and has mobile app/onboarding tailwinds. He believes if Bitcoin runs, Pump.Fun metrics will become disgusting and funds are already treating it as a must-own coin.
PUMP.FUN LONG
Long ETH on relative chart breakout.
Thread Guy is bullish on ETH from a relative-chart perspective. He says ETH/BTC looks like it put in a forever bottom in June, broke out in July, and is forming an elephant pattern whose breakout target is bubble 7. ETH was also up more than HYPE on the Hyperliquid announcement, and he says the Bitcoin pairs of high-quality coins look insane.
ETH LONG
Avoid US equities on dollar devaluation.
Felix Jiao is cautious on US equities because Treasury intervention is weakening the dollar. Foreign buyers of US stocks lose on a currency basis when the dollar falls, reducing marginal foreign demand for US assets. He notes US equities did not respond well to the announcement while debasement assets did.
SPY AVOID
Long Hyperliquid on regulatory catalyst.
Thread Guy is bullish on Hyperliquid after the Trump/CFTC announcement about bringing Hyperliquid to the US in a compliant legal fashion. He argues HYPE decoupled from Bitcoin in January, built its own buyer base, and has TradFi adoption plus Robinhood/Lighter integration. He also cites Ryan Watkins' view that annualizing 30-day revenue is flawed and that HYPE earnings could scale exponentially, with fees hitting their highest since June.
HYPE LONG
Long Lighter on compliance and momentum.
Thread Guy is bullish on Lighter, which he describes as a Hyperliquid beta or US-compliant Hyperliquid alternative. He highlights the Robinhood integration, the chart being up about 60% since July, and says Lighter is a monster that could have a mega move.
LIT LONG
Avoid Solana on competition and abstraction.
Thread Guy is cautious/avoidant on Solana. He says SOL now has its most competition ever for speculative premium because the onchain crowd can buy Anomcoin for higher reflectivity and the sophisticated crowd can buy Pump.Fun instead. He also worries that chain abstraction and settlement in USDC could reduce demand for SOL.
SOL US AI Software ETF AVOID
Long onchain memecoin complex.
Thread Guy is bullish on the onchain memecoin/social trading complex. He argues the real animal spirits were already brewing under the surface in Pump, onchain social trading, FWA, and Stonk Broker before Bitcoin's catalyst. He believes this cycle is moving toward tokenized active investing and onchain applications, with new money entering through easier mobile onboarding.
Onchain memecoins LONG
Long gold and Bitcoin debasement trade.
Felix Jiao argues Treasury Secretary Bessent's long-end buyback expansion is a form of yield-curve control/QE-like debasement. The dollar is the exhaust valve, and the clean expressions of debasement are gold and Bitcoin, which are not US assets and are less exposed to foreign capital flow issues. He has been buying both and wants to hold for at least six months, saying don't fight the Treasury.
GLD LONG
Long oil on geopolitical supply.
Felix Jiao is long oil, arguing the Iran/Strait of Hormuz situation has no deal, oil quietly ticks up every day without people talking about it, and that keeps inflation and long-end bond yields unruly. He mentioned being long oil in the Forward Guidance clip.
WTI LONG
Long Zcash on privacy buyer base.
Thread Guy likes Zcash because it has carved out a buyer base separate from Bitcoin. He argues wealthy Silicon Valley/tech elites want privacy and are buying Zcash regardless of broader crypto price action, creating standalone demand. He also says Zcash has one of the best high-time-frame charts.
ZEC LONG
Bitcoin long on cycle and debasement.
Thread Guy is long Bitcoin from around $68k. Bitcoin had been absorbing bad news and Sailor selling without breaking down, then the Treasury/Bessent long-end buyback signal ignited a debasement pop. He thinks Bessent is now forced to keep buying the long end as yields rise, which means more money creation/debasement and a higher Bitcoin backdrop, with ETF inflows also printing their strongest since May.
BTC LONG
HIGH
01:15
Aug 20
Aug 20
Thread Guy
16d
CORZ 1ST
IBB
NFTS
DTCR 1ST
ORCL
▾
MED
Data center stocks could drop around midterms.
Data center plays and related proxies like Oracle could get crushed around the November midterms due to growing public anger and political pushback over AI data centers' massive resource consumption.
CORZ SHORT
DTCR SHORT
ORCL SHORT
Positive cancer vaccine trials justify longing biotech.
The positive Phase 3 trial results for Moderna's personalized mRNA cancer vaccine are a massive breakthrough that justifies going long on the broader biotech sector.
IBB LONG
MRNA LONG
Digital licensing issues create bull case for NFTs.
The gaming industry's shift away from physical discs to digital licensing agreements is a disaster for consumers, creating a strong bull case for NFTs as a way to truly own digital assets.
NFTS LONG
Weak AI revenue growth hurts public proxies.
OpenAI and Anthropic are showing weaker-than-expected revenue growth ahead of potential IPOs, which negatively impacts their public proxies like Oracle and Cerebras in the current market environment.
CBRS AVOID
MED
23:00
Aug 19
Aug 19
Thread Guy
16d
SPY
▾
MED
S&P 500 beat Lakers franchise returns
Thread Guy argues that even the most valuable NBA franchise, the Lakers, underperformed the S&P 500 as a long-term investment. Jerry Buss bought the Lakers for $67.5 million in 1979, and the franchise sold for roughly $12 billion in 2026, but an equivalent investment in the S&P 500 would have made more money.
SPY LONG
MED
16:23
Aug 19
Aug 19
Thread Guy
16d
PUMP
MRNA 1ST
META
IBB
LLY
▾
HIGH
Pump.fun favorite coin, large position
Pump.fun made new highs and is his favorite coin; he holds a large position and calls it one of the few good coins in any crypto mania, benefiting from strong revenue and outperformance.
PUMP LONG
mRNA cancer vaccine data is huge
Moderna and Merck reported positive phase 3 data for a personalized mRNA skin-cancer vaccine, reducing recurrence and spread. Thread Guy frames this as a huge, market-saving catalyst that sent MRNA up roughly 100% premarket and drives a broader biotech rotation.
MRNA LONG
Meta legal risk, broken chart
Meta faces a massive legal problem: states are suing over addictive short-form video, the company is 'absolutely guilty,' potential penalties exceed $50B if every state wins, and the stock chart looks broken and down badly.
META AVOID
Cancer news rotates money into biotech
The positive cancer-vaccine result triggered a violent rotation into biotech, with the speaker noting IBB up 4-5% while semis and tech traded red, and saying 'everything bio related is probably just going to get ripped'; he says you should start longing bio on cancer news.
IBB LONG
Eli Lilly breaks to new all-time high
Eli Lilly is called a monster and an easy long after printing an emphatic all-time high near $1,300 on the same bio/oncology rotation; Thread Guy specifically says he likes the LLY long.
LLY LONG
Bitcoin is the trade
Bitcoin looks strong with buyers stepping in and is poised to break higher. Later, Treasury long-end buyback/QE headlines and a record short-liquidation event make him call Bitcoin the trade, with nobody owning coins and the guaranteed 50K pullback never arriving.
BTC LONG
Gold rips on money printing
Gold is ripping as a hard-asset inflation protection after Treasury long-end buyback/QE signals more money printing. Thread Guy flags gold up 3.7% while Bitcoin rips as an important parallel move.
GLD LONG
HYPE benefits from returning crypto volumes
HYPE is a reflexive way to express rising crypto volumes and volatility with deflationary, flow-controlled token economics. If crypto volume returns, Hyperliquid fees should rip, and he likes HYPE as one of the few good coins.
HYPE LONG
Unitree robot frontier is investable
Unitree's IPO was wildly oversubscribed and the company is a play on the new investable frontier of humanoid robots. He says if you want to own that robot company it is called Unitree, and emphasizes that you now can long robots rather than only social media.
688836.SS LONG
Long Zcash on strong monthly chart
Zcash has a strong monthly chart that Thread Guy calls 'gross,' and he explicitly wants to go long ZEC above the mid-500s, naming it as one of his personal choices alongside Bitcoin.
ZEC LONG
HIGH
11:03
Aug 19
Aug 19
Thread Guy
16d
MSTR
STRD
STRC
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield
US30Y
▾
HIGH
MSTR is leveraged long Bitcoin, long-term.
MSTR common stock is an amplified play on Bitcoin: since MicroStrategy began buying Bitcoin in August 2020, Bitcoin has risen about 32% while MSTR has risen about 41%; in bear markets MSTR can draw down about 75% versus Bitcoin's 50%. Saylor says common shareholders are the top priority, no dividend will be paid, and equity requires at least a four-year horizon, ideally 7-10 years, because the company aims to increase Bitcoin per share through leverage, credit/STRETCH, and ATM offerings.
MSTR LONG
Buy MicroStrategy preferreds for 15% yield.
Investors who want a dividend or stable income from MicroStrategy should buy the preferred stocks such as STRD, STRC, or STRK, which pay around 15% effective yield and were designed to pay dividends and give upside, rather than expecting common-stock dividends.
STRD LONG
STRC LONG
STRK LONG
Thirty-year Treasury yield breaking out higher.
Long-end Treasury yields are breaking out higher: the 10-year yield is entering a danger zone and the 30-year yield has broken out and is 'going to the moon.' This pressures bond prices and risk assets.
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield LONG
US30Y LONG
Defense stocks leading, Raytheon near highs.
Defense stocks are leading higher while yields and Brent are moving: Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman opened up about 2%, and Raytheon is ready to make a new all-time high; this is part of a 'deadly combo' with Palantir.
NOC LONG
RTX LONG
LMT LONG
Anomcoin launchpad reflexivity could send it higher.
Ansem's Z500 index/launchpad built on Pump.fun is similar to Virtuals last cycle: teams can airdrop to Anom holders, buy and burn Anom, and Ansem will promote top projects. If quality launches come to the launchpad, the reflexive passive flows can send Anomcoin significantly higher, and it positions Anomcoin as a legitimate proxy for on-chain activity and Ansem as the launch-chain king.
ANOM LONG
Brent crude found base, ready up.
Brent crude's longer-term chart has returned to 2021 levels, appears to have found a base, and looks ready to break upward, with an uptick in volume; crude looks similar but not as good, making oil charts intimidating to the upside.
BNO LONG
HIGH
19:35
Aug 18
Aug 18
Thread Guy
17d
NFTS 1ST
onchain NFTs
▾
HIGH
Backlash drives second onchain NFT adoption wave
Media companies are shifting digital purchases to temporary licenses, and gamers are starting to realize they do not actually own digital games or movies. This backlash over digital ownership is breaking into the zeitgeist and may plant the seeds for a second big adoption wave in onchain NFTs, because the only digital asset you can truly own is an onchain NFT; physical/retro media collection and collectible card game mania are extensions of the same realization. The speaker says the bull case for NFTs here is really good, though it probably does not mean immediate speculative mania.
NFTS LONG
onchain NFTs LONG
HIGH
15:39
Aug 18
Aug 18
Thread Guy
17d
CVNA
NOC
MSTR
LMT
STRD
▾
HIGH
Walter entanglement makes Carvana shortable.
Carvana is a sick short setup because Mark Walter owns about 3% of Carvana pledged against margin loans, Carvana has live SEC subpoenas, and Walter-related insurance entities had exposure to Carvana loan trusts. The host repeatedly tracks the stock rolling over and likes the short-dated put idea.
CVNA SHORT
Defense stocks strong on geopolitical support.
Defense stocks are moving higher while yields and oil charts also look active. Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman are up sharply at the open, and Raytheon is near all-time highs.
NOC LONG
LMT LONG
RTX LONG
MSTR is amplified Bitcoin long-term.
MSTR common is amplified Bitcoin: it outperforms Bitcoin in bull markets but draws down more in bear markets. Saylor says common shareholders need a minimum four-year horizon, ideally seven to ten years, and should not own MSTR common if they need near-term income.
MSTR LONG
Preferreds pay high yield with upside.
Saylor says investors who want a dividend should look at the preferred stocks. STRD pays roughly 15% effective yield, and instruments like STRC or STRK were designed to pay dividends and give some upside.
STRD LONG
STRK LONG
Bitcoin holds $64k; ETF inflows bullish.
Bitcoin held $64k and looks strong despite broad equity weakness. ETF inflows were the largest since May 5 at around $300 million, and the host says a move through $67k with volume could trigger a sudden euphoric breakout. He is optimistic on crypto and does not see a reason for the consensus $50k dump.
BTC LONG
Pump has strong chart and buybacks.
Pump.fun has a strong-looking chart, is generating meaningful fee-based buybacks, and the host says he is overweight. He is watching key levels around 25 but says the trade was even better at 33, and the asset has shown unusual strength.
PUMP.FUN LONG
13Fs show funds buying airlines.
Going through 13F filings, the host notices one of the underlying trends is airlines. Delta and American are being accumulated or twapped by large funds, which he calls interesting.
DAL WATCH
AAL WATCH
VVV offers beta to OpenRouter valuation.
Venice VVV is trading very well and looks interesting as a beta to OpenRouter being valued at $7 billion on modest revenue.
VVV LONG
AI chip financing looks shaky.
The AI semiconductor trade looks shaky because Nvidia's $500 billion AI financing deal was announced as if done but is actually not signed, Nvidia CDS have become more expensive, and the financing ecosystem appears circular and strained. The host says the same announcement that lifted semis is now working both ways as the market sells off.
NVDA AVOID
SOXL AVOID
Anomcoin is on-chain attention proxy.
Anomcoin's Z500 launchpad creates passive flows, buybacks and burns, and airdrops from projects launched on top of pump.fun. The host compares it to Virtuals and says Anomcoin is becoming the leading creator coin and a likely proxy for on-chain activity if crypto comes back on-chain.
ANOM LONG
Brent chart base ready to pop.
High-timeframe Brent crude charts show a base back to 2021, rising volume, and a structure that looks ready to pop. The host says the chart is intimidating in a bullish way even though crude is slightly less strong than Brent.
BNO LONG
Nike brand decay makes stock avoidable.
Nike has lost around 80% of its market cap and destroyed its brand moat by abandoning its competitive masculine sports identity, missing athlete signings, letting Kanye go, and becoming a cringe corporate political symbol. The speaker sees past dominance as largely wasted.
NKE AVOID
Meta falling knife on lawsuit risk.
Meta is a falling knife and its high-timeframe chart looks ugly. The speaker says the lawsuits over addictive features harming young users are hurting the stock, even as he questions the slippery-slope logic of suing every social platform.
META AVOID
HIGH
01:57
Aug 18
Aug 18
Thread Guy
18d
STUB
INSM
UAL
VIST
DAL
▾
HIGH
StubHub is a terrible company going lower.
StubHub is a terrible company with a poor high-timeframe chart, making it a strong candidate to short to zero.
STUB SHORT
Druckenmiller bought this strong biotech stock.
Stanley Druckenmiller is buying Insmed, a biotech play, and its weekly chart looks exceptionally strong and explosive, making it a setup worth monitoring.
INSM WATCH
Top investors are heavily buying airline stocks.
Major investors like Warren Buffett and Stanley Druckenmiller are heavily buying airlines like Delta and United, indicating a hot sector trend that is worth monitoring.
UAL WATCH
DAL WATCH
JETS WATCH
Peter Thiel is betting on Argentine gas.
Peter Thiel is making a massive, concentrated bet on Vista Energy and Argentine gas as the next AI-powered geography, and the stock's chart looks incredibly strong.
VIST WATCH
Major funds are selling off hyperscaler stocks.
Major funds, particularly Ray Dalio's Bridgewater, are selling off massive positions in hyperscalers and semiconductor stocks, signaling a potential rotation out of big tech that is worth monitoring.
NVDA WATCH
AVGO WATCH
AMZN WATCH
MSFT WATCH
ORCL WATCH
ASML WATCH
GOOGL WATCH
AMD WATCH
MU WATCH
Bitcoin's chart looks scary and potentially toppy.
The Bitcoin chart looks scary and potentially toppy, resembling a head and shoulders pattern to the downside, making it an unappealing asset to hold currently.
BTC AVOID
HIGH
15:27
Aug 17
Aug 17
Thread Guy
18d
MU
SK Hynix ADR
CBRS
BTC FLIP
ANOM
▾
HIGH
Memory trade back; Micron, SanDisk strong.
Memory semis are leading the tape: SanDisk daily looks strong, Micron is back above $1,000 and only 17% off highs after previously being down 40%, and SK hynix ADR is up 4%. He says memory is hot and expects it to keep moving.
MU LONG
SK Hynix ADR LONG
SNDK LONG
Cerebras massive AI compute breakout.
Cerebras is the biggest gainer early, swallowed the earnings dump, and looks insane; he frames it as one of the day's AI compute stories.
CBRS LONG
Bitcoin daily strong; possible upside breakout.
Bitcoin is green around $63,600, the daily chart looks decent, and he thinks there is a real chance of an upside breakout; he calls himself a Bitcoin bull but notes the weekly remains scary.
BTC LONG
Anomcoin wants to go much higher.
Anomcoin is moving from the 270-280 million market cap area and he thinks it is going to go much higher, with potential spillover into Pump Fun.
ANOM LONG
Pump Fun back, best crypto chart.
Pump Fun has come back from the dead, is the best-looking chart in crypto in his view, and he is carrying an irresponsibly large position in it.
PUMP.FUN LONG
FWA looks nuts; profit rotation target.
FWA looks strong/nuts, and he expects a trader to rotate profits into FWA.
FWA LONG
Chinese Bull memecoin is monster.
The Chinese Bull on-chain coin is a monster with 42m market cap and about $22m 24h volume, driven by the viral Chinese film narrative.
Chinese Bull LONG
SpaceX strong private market momentum.
SpaceX private market chart looks strong and up 6% on the day, and is one of the day's stories; managers are heavily concentrated in it.
SPCX LONG
Thiel's concentrated Argentine gas bet.
Peter Thiel's fund took an 18% concentrated stake in Vista Energy as a bet on Vaca Muerta/Argentine gas as the next AI-powered geography; the chart looks strong.
VIST LONG
StubHub broken; avoid to zero.
StubHub is down hard and he calls it a scam criminal organization that he wants to go to zero.
STUB AVOID
Hyperliquid chart looks amazing.
Hyperliquid is up strongly, looks amazing on the day, and has recovered to a point that impresses him as a strong altcoin leader.
HYPE LONG
Zcash looks great for repeat rally.
Zcash is looking great again with a 5-9% move, and he suggests the prior Zcash pump trade may be setting up again.
ZEC LONG
HIGH
10:00
Aug 15
Aug 15
Thread Guy
20d
On-chain crypto
BTC
HYPE
ZECBTC
▾
HIGH
On-chain crypto mania decouples from Bitcoin.
The next crypto bull market will be the first where Bitcoin barely participates; on-chain crypto can have mania independent of Bitcoin. New buyers enter through improved on-chain apps and trading platforms, developers are innovating in DeFi with AI, and each cycle has separated further from Bitcoin: 2017 stack BTC, 2021 stack ETH/NFTs, 2024 stack SOL/memes, 2026 on-chain trading and stacking cash. Bitcoin's narrative is 'mega cooked' and he sold all BTC, while on-chain assets have already decoupled from Bitcoin.
On-chain crypto LONG
BTC AVOID
HYPE/BTC has decoupled and bottomed.
Hyperliquid's HYPE/BTC chart has already decoupled from Bitcoin, really decoupling in January and again in April 2025, suggesting on-chain assets like HYPE can bottom and run without Bitcoin participation.
HYPE LONG
ZEC/BTC bottomed and decoupled.
Zcash versus Bitcoin has bottomed since roughly March and is another example of an on-chain crypto asset decoupling from Bitcoin price, supporting the view that on-chain names can work even if Bitcoin is weak.
ZECBTC LONG
HIGH
01:38
Aug 15
Aug 15
Thread Guy
21d
MU 1ST
LITE 1ST
NEBIUS
HYPE
SILVER
▾
HIGH
Micron cheap non-cyclical memory bottleneck.
He holds about $1.3 million in Micron because he sees it as bottlenecked beyond belief, no longer purely cyclical, cheap at roughly five times forward earnings, and a critical American memory producer making huge profits.
MU LONG
Lumentum becoming Nvidia of laser chips.
He holds about $500,000 in Lumentum because it is an Nvidia investment, is becoming the Nvidia of laser chips for optical data transfer, has high market share, growing revenue over 100% a year, and trades around 26/27 forward earnings.
LITE LONG
Nebius one of best recent trades.
He avoids Nebius and debt-ridden neoclouds because they take on too much debt; he cannot justify paying $250/$260 for Nebius given that debt load, preferring higher-margin semiconductor suppliers.
NEBIUS LONG
Hyperliquid looks good with record OI.
He says Hyperliquid looks really good and notes open interest is at all-time highs since October 10, which he sees as unusually strong.
HYPE LONG
Gold chart strong; do not fade.
He says the gold chart looks very strong and he does not want to fade it; possibly waiting for 4500, but gold remains powerful.
GLD LONG
Memory not compute; DRAM ripping.
He flags the theme of memory over compute, saying DRAM is ripping and that DRAM appears to agree with the memory-not-compute view.
DRAM LONG
Corning revenue will explode eventually.
He says Corning is an Nvidia investment with optical fiber/glass exposure and Corning revenue will likely explode in the future, though it is less attractive right now than Lumentum.
GLW LONG
Pump is the best coin.
He says Pump Fund makes about $400 million annualized, trades around an $800 million market cap, and at roughly two times price-to-sales is attractive because most cryptos have no sales at all.
PUMP LONG
Bitcoin unattractive due Saylor uncertainty.
He says Bitcoin has become unattractive because Michael Saylor has made the market uncertain, too centralized, and hard to push higher; he would hesitate to buy millions of dollars of Bitcoin under that overhang.
BTC AVOID
Ethereum layer one no longer attractive.
He says Ethereum has become unattractive because the layer-1 does not make money, usage has migrated to layer-2s, and few people really use Ethereum the way he once envisioned.
ETH AVOID
Longer time horizon wins public markets.
He argues that as many people seem to be scamming and selling out fast, the countertrade is to extend the time horizon in public markets; the herd cannot always be right and there is more time than people think.
SPY LONG
HIGH
15:45
Aug 14
Aug 14
Thread Guy
21d
LITE 1ST
GLW 1ST
NEBIUS 1ST
BTC
ETH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Lumentum provides essential laser chips for datacenters.
Lumentum is becoming the Nvidia of laser chips, growing revenue over 100% a year with a 26-27 forward PE. Nvidia invested in them because data centers need laser chips instead of copper wiring to transfer data efficiently.
LITE LONG
Corning will benefit from data center buildouts.
Nvidia invested in Corning for their optical fiber and glass. Their revenue will explode in the future as data centers scale out and require more efficient data transfer.
GLW LONG
Nebius carries too much debt to justify.
Debt-ridden neo-clouds like Nebius are unattractive. It is hard to justify paying high valuations for Nebius given the massive amount of debt they take on, making high-margin chip suppliers a better alternative.
NEBIUS AVOID
Bitcoin chart looks poised for further downside.
Crypto majors are in a tough spot. Bitcoin is unattractive because Michael Saylor's massive holdings make it too centralized and uncertain. Ethereum's layer 1 no longer makes money because activity moved to layer 2s with no gas fees.
BTC SHORT
Bitcoin and Ethereum face centralization and revenue issues.
Crypto majors are in a tough spot. Bitcoin is unattractive because Michael Saylor's massive holdings make it too centralized and uncertain. Ethereum's layer 1 no longer makes money because activity moved to layer 2s with no gas fees.
ETH AVOID
Micron is highly profitable with cheap valuation.
Micron is no longer a cyclical stock and is bottlenecked beyond belief. It trades at a very cheap 5 forward PE and generates massive profits, making it a strong long-term hold.
MU LONG
Pump Fun is highly profitable and undervalued.
Pump Fun is a monster platform making $1M a day and trading at just 2x revenue, making the token highly profitable and undervalued.
PUMP LONG
HIGH
13:00
Aug 14
Aug 14
Thread Guy
21d
XLP
BF.B
HEINY
STZ
PM
▾
MED
Alcohol stocks are at a cultural bottom.
The health-optimization trend has topped and is reversing toward entrenched 'Lindy' behaviors like drinking. Public alcohol names are down badly and are at a cultural bottom, so he wants to watch Budweiser Brewing, Heineken, and Brown-Forman for a return-to-mean/cultural reversal setup.
XLP WATCH
BF.B WATCH
HEINY WATCH
1876.HK WATCH
STZ is best US alcohol expression.
He identifies Constellation Brands as the best public expression of long alcohol in US stocks because 91% of the company is beer sales and it owns Modelo, Corona, and Pacifico. Despite the stock being down badly, he sees it as bottomed and worth watching as a cultural-bottom play.
STZ WATCH
Philip Morris is a Lindy vice play.
He points to Philip Morris as a Lindy vice/tobacco name: tobacco use has existed for centuries, and as the health-optimization trend fades, entrenched vice consumption is likely to return to favor. He references a prior segment and reacts positively to the PM chart.
PM LONG
MED
01:50
Aug 14
Aug 14
Thread Guy
22d
PM
BUD 1ST
NEBIUS
BE
SNDK
▾
HIGH
Health optimization trend over; vice stocks bottom
Health optimization/healthmaxxing has topped out as a cultural trend, especially after Brian Johnson took it to an extreme that most people do not want to look like; the return to vice and IRL living makes sin stocks Philip Morris and Budweiser likely bottoms.
PM LONG
BUD LONG
Forced selling marked bottom in AI names
Leopold was forced to liquidate his public equity book at the bottom; his largest AI/data-center names have since ripped massively, including Nebius, Bloom Energy, SanDisk, CoreWeave, and Applied Digital, showing forced-selling capitulation marked major bottoms.
NEBIUS LONG
BE LONG
SNDK LONG
CoreWeave LONG
APLD LONG
Hyperliquid setup strong above 60
Hyperliquid is showing its best price action since August and is the strongest crypto setup right now; if it can reclaim the $60 level, it would look really interesting and could be good for the broader crypto market.
HYPE WATCH
Robinhood putting in decent little bottom
Robinhood is up 5% and appears to be putting in a decent little bottom; if confirmed, that bottom is an interesting setup.
HOOD WATCH
El Nino threatens cocoa supply
A severe El Nino is developing and is focused on West Africa, which produces about 60% of the world's cocoa beans; cocoa is already moving up only in response to the supply threat.
COCOA LONG
HIGH
15:39
Aug 13
Aug 13
Thread Guy
22d
BUD
HYPE FLIP
STUB
CVS 1ST
COCOA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Health optimization has peaked; buy alcohol stocks.
The 'health optimization' trend has peaked, and people are returning to real-life indulgences like alcohol and tobacco. These stocks represent a cultural bottom and are poised to rebound as consumers reject extreme health-maxing lifestyles.
BUD LONG
STZ LONG
PM LONG
Rising open interest and strong chart support Hyperliquid.
The chart looks incredibly strong, breaking out to its highest levels since July, and open interest is rising significantly, making it an attractive setup despite some regulatory risks.
HYPE LONG
Avoid StubHub due to poor profitability practices.
The company is fundamentally flawed and 'criminal,' with management allegedly scalping their own tickets, and it is failing to turn a profit as costs outpace revenue growth.
STUB AVOID
Ten-year consolidation and peptide distribution support CVS.
The stock has been in a massive 10-year consolidation and looks technically primed for a breakout, potentially benefiting as a distributor in the peptide and weight-loss drug trade.
CVS LONG
Severe El Nino in West Africa drives cocoa.
The worst El Nino in 50 years is hitting West Africa, which produces 60% of the world's cocoa beans. This massive supply shock is driving cocoa prices significantly higher.
COCOA LONG
Bullish elephant pattern suggests Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin.
The ETH/BTC chart is forming a massive, highly bullish 'elephant pattern' that suggests a strong breakout for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin.
ETH/BTC LONG
Sit-down restaurants are massively outperforming fast-casual peers.
Sit-down restaurant stocks like Cheesecake Factory, Chili's (Brinker), and Texas Roadhouse have massively outperformed fast-casual peers recently, presenting an interesting trend worth monitoring even if the exact cultural driver remains unclear.
CAKE WATCH
EAT WATCH
TXRH WATCH
Upcoming GLP-3 approval will drive massive sales.
The company is on the verge of getting US approval for retatrutide (GLP-3), a highly effective fat-loss drug. They are aggressively shutting down the gray market, positioning the official drug to be one of the best-selling in history.
LLY LONG
Strong technicals and rising revenues support Pump.fun.
The token looks technically strong and its underlying fundamentals are improving, with daily revenue and buybacks hitting levels not seen since January, indicating a resurgence in on-chain meme coin trading.
PUMP LONG
HIGH
10:00
Aug 13
Aug 13
Thread Guy
22d
BTC
HYPE 1ST
PUMP.FUN 1ST
ETH
COIN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin downside limited but inflows uncertain.
He argues Bitcoin's downside risk is now fairly negated—even a wipe to $50k would not be much worse—and Bitcoin offers upside as an uncorrelated risk to the AI trade; but the next big leg depends on massive capital inflows back into crypto, which is still a question mark.
BTC WATCH
HYPE is early BNB-like accumulation.
Hyperliquid's strong revenue matters now, and he already owns HYPE and plans to buy more; he views it as an early BNB-style trade and would buy aggressively if Bitcoin gives one more leg down.
HYPE LONG
Pump.fun bullish on revenue and chart.
Pump.fun is bullish independent of unlock concerns: it put in a weekly swing-failure-pattern reversal, its revenue is still printing about a million dollars a day, and he is officially bullish unless it closes back below the reclaimed low; near current levels it may be prudent to trim some if entered low, with breakout above 3500.
PUMP.FUN LONG
Ethereum most bullish versus Bitcoin since years.
ETH/BTC has been in a long downtrend but is now making its most bullish structure in five years with a trendline breakout and attempted higher low; short-term ETH looks strong and could outperform if Bitcoin rallies, though ETH could still trade below $1,000 if Bitcoin makes another leg down, so it is a key chart to monitor.
ETH WATCH
Coinbase and Robinhood become everything apps.
The trend toward perpification of everything is making major platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood converge into banking, trading, and everything apps, and onchain 24/7 trading is a powerful crypto use case that can pull money back onchain.
COIN LONG
HOOD LONG
Memecoins are lottery; most get destroyed.
Memecoins are lottery tickets with survivorship bias; most participants get destroyed, and as derivatives of crypto majors they are even more worthless in a downside scenario, so traders should treat them as risky speculation.
MEMECOINS AVOID
Long NASDAQ expecting continued extension.
He is long NASDAQ and wants to see the current move extend rather than pull back and chop; continued extension is bullish for overall risk, while a stall would signal a return to a range and potentially a larger correction.
QQQ LONG
HIGH
01:30
Aug 13
Aug 13
Thread Guy
23d
ALTCOINS
000660.KS FLIP
NVDA FLIP
SOXL
CBRS
▾
HIGH
Broad alt season no longer exists.
The old idea of a broad alt season, where every altcoin goes up 20x, is a concept of the past and no longer exists. The 2017 ICO-style broad alt rally has been replaced by a more evolved game where new narratives are controlled differently.
ALTCOINS AVOID
Nvidia financing deal boosts AI memory.
The Nvidia financing deal to neoclouds is being taken well by the market and is driving a surge in AI memory and semiconductors. DRAM/memory names like Micron and SK Hynix are rallying as part of that AI semiconductor supply-chain strength.
000660.KS LONG
NVDA LONG
MU LONG
SOXL above 56.57 signals semis rebound.
SOXL, the triple-leverage semiconductor ETF, is at a key technical level: if it can get above 56.57, the recent downside-volatility regime may be over and semis could run it back, especially with the market liking the Nvidia financing deal.
SOXL WATCH
Cerebras chart looks great.
Cerebras is putting in a rounded-bottom and V-shaped technical base and the chart looks great, even though the speaker had previously taken it off.
CBRS WATCH
Disney Lakers purchase is blowoff top.
Disney buying the Lakers at $12B looks like a top-tick acquisition in a league the speaker sees as dying or blowoff-topping. It is analogous to buying an expensive NFT at the peak, making Disney unattractive on this deal.
DIS AVOID
Nike losing to niche brands.
Nike is being unbundled by niche brands such as Alo, Lululemon, and Skims. The broad brand is losing to super-niche competitors, and fixing Nike would require owning and incubating niche athlete and creator brands rather than running one monolithic label.
NKE AVOID
HIGH
00:13
Aug 13
Aug 13
Thread Guy
23d
HOOD
TOKENIZED STOCKS
RWA 1ST
Stablecoins (Robinhood Earn/Morpho)
Memecoins paired with tokenized stocks
▾
HIGH
Robinhood crypto infrastructure edge supports growth
Robinhood's crypto strategy has company-specific advantages: it launched its chain without a token, avoiding token-price distraction; it has 27 million US and 28 million global funded accounts for distribution; existing institutional market-maker relationships add legitimacy; and the chain is core to the main app, not a side project, supporting tokenized stocks, Robinhood Earn, and international expansion.
HOOD LONG
Tokenized stocks and RWA adoption early
Tokenization and RWA adoption are at the very beginning, but instant settlement, 24/7 weekend trading, fractionalization, transparency, and access to US stocks for non-US investors will drive long-term growth; stock tokens become a new primitive for collateral, microloans, and DeFi composability.
TOKENIZED STOCKS LONG
RWA LONG
Robinhood Earn stablecoin yield adoption strong
Robinhood Earn integrates Morpho in the main app to pay roughly 7% on stablecoins, automatically creates smart wallets, and has already passed about $275 million RTVL as a top Morpho vault, making DeFi yield accessible to Robinhood's large funded-account base.
Stablecoins (Robinhood Earn/Morpho) LONG
MORPHO LONG
Memecoin-tokenized stock pairs emerging liquidity
Memecoins paired with tokenized stocks have emerged as an unexpected, growing use case on Robinhood chain, creating premiums, arbitrage, and liquidity; the chain's low latency and cheap gas support both RWA and memecoin pair trading, and major pairs are generating increasing volume.
Memecoins paired with tokenized stocks WATCH
Mobile perps via Lighter underpenetrated market
Robinhood's mobile perps product, with the trade engine powered by Lighter, aims at the underpenetrated mobile perpetuals market by offering easier UI/UX than web-first competitors, and upcoming Lighter points with Robin wallet could accelerate adoption.
LIT WATCH
Crypto perpetuals WATCH
HIGH
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