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21:00
Aug 20
Aug 20
BOVA11.SA
Brazilian Interest Rates
Brazilian Corporate Credit
▾
HIGH
High rates are crushing leveraged Brazilian companies.
Brazil's current regime of high real interest rates and expanding public spending is causing a massive wave of corporate bankruptcies, as companies with leverage over 2x cannot survive. The capital markets have been closed for new issuances for four years, and a fiscal policy adjustment is urgently needed to bring the yield curve down, revive credit, and drive investors back into equities and alternative assets.
BOVA11.SA WATCH
Brazilian Interest Rates WATCH
Brazilian Corporate Credit AVOID
HIGH
21:00
Aug 18
Aug 18
GE 1ST
NVDA 1ST
SMH 1ST
AMZN 1ST
EWZ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Sold due to low expected returns.
Despite being an exceptional business with a dominant market share in aircraft engines, the stock was sold because its price appreciation compressed the expected return below the minimum required threshold.
GE AVOID
Avoid AI hardware due to profit uncertainty.
While AI is a transformational technology, it is impossible to predict how profits will be distributed among LLMs, cloud providers, and chip makers like Nvidia. It is better to avoid consensus AI hardware and infrastructure trades due to this uncertainty.
NVDA AVOID
SMH AVOID
Holds a large position in Amazon.
Amazon is held as a relatively large position and is the only significant exposure to the AI theme in the portfolio, though it was purchased prior to the current AI boom.
AMZN LONG
Extreme pessimism created attractive valuations in Brazil.
Risks in Brazil are currently overestimated and returns are underestimated due to extreme market pessimism. High-quality Brazilian companies are trading at attractive valuations, prompting a reallocation of about 11% of the fund into two Brazilian equities.
EWZ LONG
AI increases competition and erodes software returns.
AI has caused an explosion in software production capacity, which will likely increase competition and erode returns for many software companies. Most software exposure was sold to avoid this disruption.
IGV AVOID
Market power captures AI productivity gains.
Danaher is the fund's largest position. It has strong market power and barriers to entry, allowing it to capture AI-driven productivity gains in its margins rather than passing them on to consumers.
DHR LONG
Industrial gases are protected from AI disruption.
Linde is a large position because its industrial gas business is highly protected from AI disruption. It operates like an unregulated utility with very low tail risk and highly predictable returns.
LIN LONG
HIGH
23:00
Aug 17
Aug 17
SMH 1ST
KBE 1ST
COE 1ST
DBA
FXY
▾
HIGH
AI semiconductor supercycle still early.
AI is a multi-year technology supercycle, likely lasting 8-10 years, and is only in year two or three. US hyperscaler AI cloud backlog reached around $1.73 trillion, roughly double the US defense backlog, and TAG has 60+ AI projects where models are exceeding expectations. Corrections like the memory selloff created entry points in memory names within the AI/semiconductor supply chain.
SMH LONG
Favor foreign banks for AI productivity.
AI is highly deflationary over time and the next major beneficiaries are users of AI, especially service businesses such as banks, insurers, law firms and accounting firms, which can reduce costs and expand margins. He specifically likes foreign banks for this reason, while avoiding Brazilian banks because of credit discomfort.
KBE LONG
Avoid Brazilian structured retail credit products.
Brazilian financial deepening has distributed COEs, dubious credit, and CRIs/CRAs with weak or no guarantees to retail clients. These products will default and damage confidence and trust in the investment platforms, while industry incentives pushed distribution even when asset quality was poor.
COE AVOID
El Niño may lift agricultural commodities.
El Niño has a very high probability of being severe or among the worst in history, and some agricultural commodities are already moving higher. This could drive food inflation and affect Brazil's election, so agricultural commodity upside pressure is worth monitoring.
DBA WATCH
Monitor yen carry trade unwind risk.
The yen-funded carry trade is massive, and an abrupt unwind could trigger forced selling of long-term US Treasuries. The Yen weakened to 162-173, Japan became very cheap, and US Treasury officials are already intervening to signal that speculation will not be one-way. This is a key global risk to monitor.
FXY WATCH
Brazil chronic deterioration; avoid broad exposure.
With debt near 80% of GDP and real rates around 8%, Brazil would need roughly 6.4% combined primary surplus and growth to stabilize debt, which is practically impossible. He sees a real fiscal-dominance risk and expects the government will only act after the dollar spikes and inflation rises, making him medium-term bearish on Brazil.
BOVA11.SA AVOID
HIGH
21:00
Aug 16
Aug 16
BOVA11.SA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Brazil lives normalized civil war, weak sovereignty.
Pondé argues Brazil is suffering institutional degradation across branches of government and even in the market itself, creating a 'vale tudo' credibility problem. He says corruption is structural and that the next scandal is unpredictable, citing the Banco Master case as an example of this institutional accommodation.
BOVA11.SA AVOID
HIGH
21:00
Aug 15
Aug 15
CASH3.SA 1ST
BTC 1ST
MSTR 1ST
▾
MED
Méliuz cash flow supports Bitcoin accumulation.
Méliuz is cited as a Brazilian company with cash flow that accumulates Bitcoin with cash flow, making it fundamentally different from cashless Bitcoin-treasury companies that collapsed 90-99%; this cash-flow backing supports its Bitcoin accumulation model.
CASH3.SA LONG
Buy Bitcoin when people ignore it.
A study of three on-chain indicators shows when MVRV, Supply in Profit, and Long-Term Holder Profit touched current levels, Bitcoin returned median 66%, 92%, and 108% over the next 12 months, with 91%, 99%, and 100% positive cases, respectively; aggregated analogous scenarios point to higher prices after a possible 2-4 month negative window.
BTC LONG
Strategy Bitcoin sales not death spiral.
Strategy's Bitcoin sales are natural treasury management, not a death spiral: it has already built a colossal Bitcoin reserve, has/had cash flow, covers preferred dividend obligations such as STRC, and built Bitcoin-collateralized financial products; the market may be overreacting to the broken 'never sell' narrative.
MSTR LONG
MED
00:00
Aug 14
Aug 14
EWZ
▾
MED
Brazil assets face gradual Lula reelection risk
Faria argues that Brazil's market is already pricing a Lula 2026 re-election, with Polymarket showing more than 60% probability, so a Lula victory would not be a surprise. However, he does not believe the market has fully priced how bad a Lula 4 could be; he expects Brazilian assets to deteriorate gradually rather than suffer an abrupt foreign selloff, using the frog-in-boiling-water analogy. He adds that local investors are more scared than foreigners and that protective positioning makes sense because the election is extremely tight.
EWZ AVOID
MED
23:00
Aug 13
Aug 13
SMAL11.SA 1ST
EWZ 1ST
FXI 1ST
BOVA11 1ST
BOVA11.SA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid small caps; prefer large-cap Ibovespa.
High Selic and long-term Brazilian interest rates make small caps the most vulnerable part of the equity market because those companies are domestic and capital-needy. Faria says he has been recommending avoiding small caps for at least two months. The small-cap index is also structurally unfavorable because it tends to receive stocks rejected from the Ibovespa and lose winners that migrate to the Ibovespa, acting like a "série B". In contrast, the Ibovespa is relatively better positioned because it includes commodity exporters such as Petrobras, Vale and Suzano, plus Embraer, WEG, utilities, banks and insurers that are less affected by this domestic rate dynamic.
SMAL11.SA AVOID
BOVA11.SA LONG
Avoid Brazil and China equities now.
Faria says that right now he does not like either China or Brazil. For Brazil, the macro backdrop of very high interest rates is unattractive, so he prefers internationalizing capital away from these two markets.
EWZ AVOID
FXI AVOID
Hold Selic for high carry premium.
Faria likes two B3 ETFs: the low-volatility ETF ("Livol") and the dividend ETF ("IDIV"). He argues they hold better-quality companies, avoid the structural problem of the small-cap index, and over the long term have outperformed the Ibovespa while providing better downside cushioning.
BOVA11 LONG
DIVO11.SA LONG
US equities favored for internationalization.
As an internationalization alternative, Faria says the United States is doing well and he likes it. He notes that buying the S&P 500 when the dollar was around 6.20 produced more than 30% gains, compared with roughly 24% for CDI, so the S&P 500 was a good international allocation.
SPY LONG
MSCI ex-China ex-US should outperform.
Faria also expects the MSCI index excluding China and excluding the United States to perform well, offering another way to internationalize while avoiding China and the US-only exposure.
ACWX LONG
Watch DI28 at 13.75 for equities.
Faria uses a long-term concentration model for DI rates. When the DI yield is below the long-term concentration line, rates are in a downtrend and Brazilian equities tend to rally; when it is above, rates are in an uptrend and he becomes cautious. The model flipped bullish for rates in early March 2025, so he reversed his optimistic equity call. The key level is DI January 2028 at 13.75%. If the market prices more rate cuts and DI28 loses 13.75%, he expects yields to fall and the outlook for Brazilian equities to improve.
DI1F28 WATCH
HIGH
21:30
Aug 13
Aug 13
ARS 1ST
ARGT 1ST
Argentine oil & gas sector
Argentine mining sector
Argentine agriculture sector
▾
HIGH
Avoid peso; real rates deeply negative
Com inflação esperada de 30% em 2026 e 22% no ano seguinte, juro básico de 20% e depósitos bancários ao redor de 15%, a taxa real em pesos é fortemente negativa. Por isso, poupar em peso destrói poder de compra e os argentinos preferem dólar. José Carlos cita o histórico de calotes e de tentativas fracassadas de usar juro real negativo para sustentar que a moeda local deve continuar sendo evitada.
ARS AVOID
Overvalued currency and election; avoid Argentina
O fundo da Vinicas apostou na Argentina desde o início do governo Milei e rendeu 40% em dólares, mas foi encerrado porque os preços já incorporam o ajuste fiscal. O câmbio real está tão apreciado quanto no fim da conversibilidade, a âncora cambial é artificial e a eventual flutuação do câmbio deve causar perdas relevantes em ativos argentinos medidos em dólar. Some-se a eleição de 2026 competitiva, risco de corrida e mecanismos do tipo corralito, além de reservas frágeis.
ARGT AVOID
Argentina's commodity export sectors are booming
A economia argentina está em forma de K: petróleo, gás, mineração e agro estão crescendo fortemente, puxados por vantagens comparativas como Vaca Muerta, enquanto metade dos setores da oferta e a indústria/manufatura encolhem. Esses setores exportadores tendem a se beneficiar da produção crescente de petróleo, gás e mineração.
Argentine oil & gas sector LONG
Argentine mining sector LONG
Argentine agriculture sector LONG
Avoid local dollar deposits; corralito risk
As reservas internacionais argentinas de cerca de US$ 42 bilhões incluem quase US$ 30 bilhões de depósitos compulsórios de clientes em dólares. Em caso de necessidade, o governo pode se apropriar desses recursos, como ocorreu no corralito. Por isso, dólar depositado em banco local não é a mesma coisa que dólar em Nova York.
Argentine bank dollar deposits AVOID
HIGH
23:00
Aug 12
Aug 12
Market Makers
10d
Tesouro IPCA+ 2035
NTNB 2035
▾
HIGH
Public bonds pay 8% real guaranteed.
If a credible presidential candidate committed to fiscal adjustment wins, Brazilian long real yields would start falling before measures are approved, as market credibility compresses risk premium; the speaker cites Temer's entry and says if Tesouro IPCA+ 2035/NTNB 2035 yields fall from around 8% to 6%, half the fiscal adjustment is already effectively done, creating an election-driven rally in long inflation-linked bonds.
Tesouro IPCA+ 2035 LONG
NTNB 2035 WATCH
HIGH
21:00
Aug 12
Aug 12
Market Makers
10d
EWZ
▾
HIGH
Monitor Brazil's gross debt for fiscal risks.
Brazil's fiscal trajectory is highly concerning because government spending and subsidized credit are growing faster than record tax revenues. The current fiscal framework is structurally flawed, allowing expenses to rise alongside revenues while excluding significant off-budget items like precatórios. Investors must monitor the gross debt—specifically the IMF's broader metric which includes Central Bank repo operations and is already at 95% of GDP—as the true thermometer of Brazil's fiscal deterioration, which forces structurally high real interest rates.
EWZ WATCH
HIGH
23:11
Aug 11
Aug 11
Market Makers
11d
SPY 1ST
MSCI ACWI ex-US ex-China
ELVL11.SA 1ST
NTNB 2035 (Tesouro IPCA+ 2035)
BNO 1ST
▾
HIGH
Prefira ações americanas pela economia forte
A economia americana segue forte, com lucros corporativos elevados e mercado de trabalho resilient; altas pontuais de juros não matam um bull market. Ele está otimista com os Estados Unidos e recomenda alocar na bolsa americana.
SPY LONG
MSCI ex-US ex-China para diversificar
Como parte da internacionalização, ele vê boa performance no MSCI ex-China e também ex-Estados Unidos, oferecendo diversificação benéfica em relação ao risco doméstico.
MSCI ACWI ex-US ex-China LONG
Low vol e dividend ETFs vencem Ibovespa
Os índices de baixa volatilidade (Livol) e dividendos (Idiv) tendem a apresentar performance superior ao Ibovespa no longo prazo, oferecendo um amortecimento nas quedas e melhor relação risco-retorno.
ELVL11.SA LONG
DIVO LONG
Evite NTNB 2035 sem reforma fiscal
Sem uma atitude concreta de ajuste fiscal por parte do próximo governo, o juro longo brasileiro permanecerá pressionado, tornando as NTNBs de longo prazo pouco atrativas. A NTNB 2035, que atualmente rende cerca de 8% reais, ainda embute risco de alta se a credibilidade não for restaurada.
NTNB 2035 (Tesouro IPCA+ 2035) AVOID
Petróleo cai por excesso de oferta
Há uma enorme sobra de petróleo prevista para o próximo ano (3 a 4 milhões de barris/dia) com produção americana subindo, estoques comerciais confortáveis e crack spread extremamente elevado. Se a guerra acabar e Ormuz não for fechado, o Brent pode cair para a faixa de $55-$60, sendo desinflacionário globalmente.
BNO SHORT
Mantenha-se na Selic por altos retornos
Com a Selic em 14% e juro real elevado, a renda fixa pós-fixada paga um prêmio muito atraente. Ele recomenda manter posição na Selic como alternativa segura enquanto o cenário permanece incerto.
LFTS11.SA LONG
Evite Brasil devido à fragilidade fiscal
O Brasil apresenta fragilidade fiscal imensa, juros reais próximos de 9% e déficit nominal elevado, tornando o ambiente hostil para ativos brasileiros. Ele afirma não gostar de Brasil, recomendando evitar exposição geral ao país.
IBOV AVOID
Evite small caps com juros elevados
Com juros reais extremamente elevados, as empresas de menor capitalização (small caps) são as mais penalizadas, pois dependem de crédito e mercado interno; a correlação inversa entre o DI 2035 e o SMAL11 mostra que enquanto o juro longo está em tendência de alta, o índice small cap cai. Por isso, nos últimos dois meses ele tem recomendado fugir de small caps.
SMAL11.SA AVOID
HIGH
23:02
Aug 10
Aug 10
Market Makers
12d
BOVA11.SA 1ST
▾
MED
Flávio win triggers equity rally.
If Flávio Bolsonaro wins the presidential election, the market will give him the benefit of the doubt due to his pro-market campaign messaging, triggering a honeymoon rally in Brazilian assets that could last months.
BOVA11.SA LONG
MED
21:00
Aug 09
Aug 09
21:00
Aug 08
Aug 08
Market Makers
14d
HYPE 1ST
UNI 1ST
AAVE 1ST
SKY 1ST
BTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hyper Liquid could surpass Ethereum as #2.
Hyper Liquid has built a dominant decentralized derivatives platform (Hypercore) and is expanding via a general-purpose EVM chain (Hyper VM). Its differentiated architecture and strong team are attracting significant users and builder activity, while Ethereum suffers from internal disagreements and slow upgrades. This positions Hyper Liquid to potentially surpass Ethereum and become the second-largest crypto asset by market cap.
HYPE LONG
Old DeFi tokens UNI, AAVE, SKY undervalued.
Legacy DeFi protocols Uniswap, Aave, and Sky (formerly MakerDAO) have survived multiple bull and bear cycles, accumulated dominant market shares and massive user bases, and now generate hundreds of millions in real revenue. With tokens fully circulated (no more vesting/unlock pressure) and mechanisms like fee switches and buybacks activated, valuation multiples have compressed to extremely attractive levels compared to other tech sectors, presenting a deep-value opportunity in overlooked 'old' projects.
UNI LONG
AAVE LONG
SKY LONG
Negative news fails to push Bitcoin lower.
Despite a barrage of negative news (Saylor selling, fund liquidations, regulatory delays, macro fears), Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break below $60,000. Previously, positive news stopped having effect near the top. Now, this divergence between extreme negative sentiment and stable price suggests the bad news is already priced in, limiting further downside and creating a favorable asymmetric setup for a long position.
BTC LONG
HIGH
00:00
Aug 08
Aug 08
Market Makers
15d
EWZ 1ST
BOVA11.SA FLIP
▾
MED
Lula's isolationist policies hurt Brazilian assets
O governo Lula isolou o Brasil diplomaticamente com sua postura antiamericana, provocando tarifação dos EUA acima de 25% sobre produtos brasileiros, perda do mercado europeu de proteínas por falta de adequação sanitária e sobretaxa chinesa de 55% sobre carne exportada, o que prejudica a economia e as empresas brasileiras.
EWZ AVOID
BOVA11.SA AVOID
MED
21:58
Aug 06
Aug 06
Market Makers
16d
Brazilian government bonds
BOVA11.SA 1ST
▾
MED
Juros brasileiros cairão com governo Flávio.
Com a vitória de Flávio, a taxa de juros cairá rapidamente porque parte do ajuste fiscal virá da própria curva de juros, reduzindo o custo da dívida e beneficiando os títulos públicos.
Brazilian government bonds LONG
Eleição de Flávio impulsionará bolsa brasileira.
Uma vitória de Flávio Bolsonaro em 2026 trará responsabilidade fiscal, corte de gastos, redução da taxa de juros e atração de investimentos estrangeiros, gerando forte recuperação econômica e valorização das ações brasileiras.
BOVA11.SA LONG
MED
00:30
Aug 05
Aug 05
Market Makers
18d
BOVA11.SA
EWZ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Brazil heading for debt crisis
Brazil's public debt has risen rapidly under President Lula, and with real interest rates well above economic growth, a classic Latin American debt crisis can arrive quickly unless urgent fiscal reform is enacted. Political barriers, including Lula's electoral skill and division of the right, further darken the fiscal outlook.
BOVA11.SA SHORT
EWZ SHORT
HIGH
21:00
Aug 04
Aug 04
22:57
Aug 03
Aug 03
Market Makers
19d
SPY 1ST
EWZ 1ST
▾
HIGH
US benefits from deregulation and productivity.
The United States is becoming an entrepreneur's heaven due to aggressive deregulation, falling tax burden as a share of GDP (approaching emerging-market levels), and a documented productivity miracle, while capital is shifting away from Europe and China toward the US. Despite tariff policies that may hurt consumers and some companies, the overall business climate is strengthening markedly.
SPY LONG
Brazil benefits from global resource demand.
Brazil is structurally attractive for long-term investors due to global demand for food security, energy diversity, and critical minerals (rare earths), where it holds massive reserves; the EU-Mercosur agreement is already boosting exports by $1 billion per month, and relative instability in China, Russia, and Europe makes Brazil a safer allocation among emerging markets despite domestic fiscal noise. These structural tailwinds should pull foreign capital into Brazil over a multi-year horizon.
EWZ LONG
HIGH
21:00
Aug 02
Aug 02
Market Makers
20d
UUP 1ST
BOVA11.SA 1ST
ETF 1ST
▾
HIGH
US dollar remains dominant
The US dollar remains the dominant reserve currency with no clear successor. Europe is a museum, Japan an elderly care home, China a jail, and Bitcoin an experiment. The dollar's role hasn't shifted since the 1990s, and US economic outperformance supports it. Only a US military defeat, such as losing a war with China over Taiwan, could threaten that dominance.
UUP LONG
Brazil heading for debt crisis
Brazil's public debt has risen rapidly, and with real interest rates above the growth rate, a traditional Latin American debt crisis can arrive quickly unless there is urgent fiscal reform. Political obstacles—lack of a radical reform figure like Milei and a divided right—make such reform unlikely, implying more pain and worsening fiscal dynamics.
BOVA11.SA SHORT
Fed rate hike likely this year
The Federal Reserve under new chair Kevin Walsh will likely have to raise rates this year due to renewed inflationary pressures from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices. Walsh will be a hawkish chair who signals intolerance of above-target inflation, making a rate hike probable.
ETF SHORT
HIGH
23:00
Aug 01
Aug 01
Market Makers
21d
VALE3.SA 1ST
PETR4.SA 1ST
BOVA11.SA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Liquid Vale & Petro get foreign flows.
With the Brazilian market fully dependent on foreign investors, only the most liquid large caps like Vale and Petrobras are actually moving; they are the only names with sufficient liquidity for the foreigner to perform. Therefore, to capture the return of foreign flows, investors should focus on these blue chips.
VALE3.SA LONG
PETR4.SA LONG
Brazilian stocks have huge asymmetric upside.
The Brazilian stock market offers an extremely favorable asymmetric payoff: downside from current levels is likely limited to 10–15%, while the upside could be a doubling or more if fiscal adjustment, election clarity, or foreign inflows materialize. The inflection point will not warn investors, so having at least a small equity position is essential to capture the potential rally.
BOVA11.SA LONG
HIGH
23:00
Jul 31
Jul 31
Market Makers
22d
BPAC11.SA
▾
MED
BTG's Copa competition drives cross-selling.
BTG Pactual's simulated trading competition (Copa BTG) serves as an effective client acquisition funnel: 40% of first-time account openers start investing in other asset classes (CDBs, funds, fixed income, private pension) within two to three months of experiencing the trading simulator. This demonstrates a strategy that converts gamified trading into broader investment product adoption, driving asset growth and cross-selling revenues for BTG.
BPAC11.SA LONG
MED
21:00
Jul 31
Jul 31
Market Makers
22d
MSFT
AMZN
USD
GOOGL
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI rotation back to customer-owning giants
The AI investment theme is causing violent rotation between sectors such as memory/semiconductors and software/service providers. Recently, money has shifted back to large companies that own the customer relationship, namely Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, as they capture AI value through their platforms.
MSFT WATCH
AMZN WATCH
GOOGL WATCH
Must hold dollars amid high US rates
High US interest rates and global uncertainty make the US dollar a safe haven and a powerful capital attractor. Investors must have a dollar position and international investments because the Federal Reserve acts as a vacuum cleaner, sucking global capital into USD-denominated assets.
USD LONG
S&P 500 ETF for AI diversification
Given the difficulty of picking a single AI winner, a diversified approach via an S&P 500 ETF is the best way for the average investor to participate in the AI transformation without bearing the risk of choosing wrong individual stocks.
SPY LONG
Second AI wave lifts Dow Jones stocks
A second wave of AI benefits will come from traditional companies using AI to cut costs and boost profits. This rotation from S&P 500 to Dow Jones is already visible and the market has not yet fully priced in how much more profitable these incumbents can become through AI adoption.
DIA LONG
HIGH
00:30
Jul 31
Jul 31
Market Makers
23d
SMFT3.SA 1ST
ALOS3.SA 1ST
Short Brazilian single-name stocks
Large-cap consensus Brazilian stocks
TRCK3.SA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Underfollowed small caps offer alpha.
Brazilian large funds are concentrated in a few large-cap consensus names, leaving many small and mid-cap second-line stocks underfollowed and with little competition. This creates significant alpha opportunities for fundamental managers who can identify and hold these companies, as seen with Smartfit and Allos.
SMFT3.SA LONG
ALOS3.SA LONG
Short Brazil single-names for alpha.
Single-name short selling in Brazil is an underutilized alpha generator because only around ten players actively short individual stocks, while many Brazilian companies exhibit poor governance, weak capital structures, and inadequate market communication, creating profitable short opportunities that also mitigate portfolio drawdowns.
Short Brazilian single-name stocks SHORT
Avoid large-cap consensus, alpha elusive.
Large-cap consensus Brazilian stocks, such as banks and electric utilities, are crowded with high overlap among institutional portfolios. The alpha in these names tends to net out, and investors risk stepping on major permanent-capital-loss 'banana peels'. Actively avoiding these consensus positions is key to superior performance.
Large-cap consensus Brazilian stocks AVOID
Global growth, mispriced, long-term holds.
Track Field and Priner are compelling long-term investments because they operate in large global addressable markets, have growth that does not depend on Brazil, are run by serious management, and are currently mispriced with wrong valuations, justifying dedicated long-term capital.
TRCK3.SA LONG
PRNR3.SA LONG
HIGH
23:30
Jul 30
Jul 30
Market Makers
23d
BOVA11.SA
▾
HIGH
New IPO cycle will create growth stocks.
Despite the recent multi-year drought in IPOs, a new IPO cycle will inevitably emerge, producing many new companies on the Brazilian stock exchange over the next 20 years – much like past cycles that created Localiza and Renner. This will replenish the opportunity set and generate fresh investment ideas.
BOVA11.SA LONG
HIGH
22:54
Jul 30
Jul 30
Market Makers
23d
XLV 1ST
BPAC11.SA 1ST
USD 1ST
MSFT 1ST
XLF 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long financials and healthcare on AI
A próxima pernada da IA virá de empresas dos setores financeiro e de saúde que adotarem IA para cortar custos e aumentar receita, gerando rerating. Ele recomenda stock picking nesses setores, que ainda não precificaram esse ganho.
XLV LONG
XLF LONG
Long BTG Pactual long-term
BTG Pactual é um bom exemplo de ação de banco para o longo prazo: comprar e manter por 20 anos, ignorando volatilidades, gera retornos expressivos assim como fez com grandes pagadores de dividendos históricos.
BPAC11.SA LONG
Long US dollar as safe haven
Em momentos de incerteza global, o dólar americano atua como porto seguro e o Federal Reserve mantém juros elevados que sugam a liquidez global, fazendo com que o dólar e ativos em dólar sejam uma posição obrigatória para proteção e rendimento.
USD LONG
Avoid individual AI stock picks
Escolher individualmente ações de IA como Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Google e Amazon é muito arriscado porque a disputa por capturar valor na cadeia pode deixar alguns sem 'cadeira' quando a música parar; o melhor é evitar stock picking nesse setor.
MSFT AVOID
NVDA AVOID
META AVOID
AMZN AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
Long Brazil equities for asymmetric upside
A bolsa brasileira está extremamente barata, negociando a 4-5x lucros, oferecendo uma assimetria favorável: potencial de dobrar em poucos anos contra um risco limitado de queda adicional, especialmente se houver clareza eleitoral ou ajuste fiscal.
BOVA11.SA LONG
Long S&P 500 ETF for AI
Para capturar a tendência de inteligência artificial sem o risco de escolher vencedores, o investidor deve optar por um ETF amplo e diversificado como o S&P 500, que permite participar do tema de forma segura.
IVVB11.SA LONG
HIGH
00:00
Jul 30
Jul 30
Market Makers
24d
BIDI4.SA 1ST
BOVA11.SA
▾
HIGH
Inter caiu 40% por venda forçada, barato.
O Banco Inter sofreu uma queda de cerca de 40% em três dias após um resultado apenas 3% pior do que o esperado, movimento que não foi justificado por fundamentos e sim pela liquidação forçada de um grande investidor alavancado que foi "stopado". O papel caiu de R$40 para R$30 e depois para R$27, ficando aproximadamente 10% abaixo do já deprimido nível pós-venda forçada. Até agora ninguém comprou, e o preço extremamente descontado provavelmente será o primeiro a ser adquirido quando o fluxo estrangeiro (ou qualquer comprador) retornar, criando uma assimetria favorável.
BIDI4.SA LONG
Terceira onda estrangeira comprará bolsa barata.
O Ibovespa está excessivamente barato porque o investidor local está excessivamente pessimista, focado em ruídos políticos e fiscais, enquanto os estrangeiros estão mais uma vez entrando em ciclos. Após uma primeira onda de gringos que já conheciam o Brasil e uma segunda onda de fluxo temático/quantitativo em janeiro, começou a se formar uma terceira onda de investidores estrangeiros dedicados que estão fazendo diligência profunda (visitas, NDAs, Zoom calls) para entender o Brasil. Esse terceiro movimento, embora mais lento e gradual, representa um ciclo longo de alocação em ativos brasileiros via gestores locais, e não apenas ETF. Quando esse fluxo chegar de forma consistente, os ativos baratos serão tomados pelo estrangeiro antes que o investidor local reaja — configurando uma nova onda de alta da bolsa brasileira.
BOVA11.SA LONG
HIGH
22:15
Jul 29
Jul 29
Market Makers
24d
SMFT3.SA
BOVA11.SA
IBOV 1ST
TFCO4.SA
▾
HIGH
Smartfit high-conviction, zero index weight.
Smartfit is a high-conviction holding with zero weight in the Ibovespa index, implying it is disconnected from the index and possibly undervalued. Braga holds a 12% portfolio position, signaling strong belief in its prospects.
SMFT3.SA LONG
Brazilian equities extremely cheap and under-owned.
Brazilian stocks are trading at valuations cheaper than the worst moments of COVID, 2009, and 2016, with many companies at 5x earnings. Pension funds, individuals, and private banks have record low equity allocations, creating an asymmetric opportunity with limited downside.
BOVA11.SA LONG
IBOV LONG
Track&Field high ROIC, growth, dividends.
Track&Field has a ROIC of 25%, well above its cost of capital, supporting continued store expansion. It also pays a high dividend yield of 10-20%, offering both growth and income. The combination of low leverage, high dividends, and capable management makes it attractive.
TFCO4.SA LONG
HIGH
23:39
Jul 28
Jul 28
Market Makers
25d
BOVA11.SA 1ST
VTRU3.SA 1ST
SBFG3.SA 1ST
RADL3.SA 1ST
ECOR3.SA
▾
HIGH
Brazil stocks severely undervalued, extreme underweight
The Brazilian stock market is pricing in extreme pessimism, trading cheaper than during the COVID panic, the 2015-16 recession and the 2009 financial crisis. Institutional and retail positioning is at all-time lows, with local pension funds, allocators and individuals holding almost no equities. Meanwhile, the stock of money in fixed income (M4/CDI) exploded and a modest rotation of just a few percent would have a massive impact on market cap. On top of that, a third wave of dedicated foreign fund flows is forming, with global investors doing deep due diligence to re-enter Brazil after years of underweight. The combination of rock-bottom valuations, widespread under-allocation and an incoming cycle of foreign demand creates a highly asymmetric opportunity that will eventually become obvious.
BOVA11.SA LONG
Cheapest education stock, free cash flow
Vitru (Vitra Educação) is the cheapest education company listed on the Brazilian stock exchange, trading at extremely depressed multiples of price-to-free-cash-flow. The management is actively engaging with investors to build a shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy, including potential dividend payments—a rare attitude in the Brazilian small-cap space. The stock is ignored because of its size, creating a significant mispricing for those willing to take a position.
VTRU3.SA LONG
Retailer at 4x earnings, strong quarter
SBF (Grupo SBF) is one of the most absurdly cheap retailers on the exchange, trading at only 4x earnings after a strong recent quarter that suggests the next result will be extremely robust. The market remains fixated on one-off fears (Copa do Mundo comparison, tax on low-value imports) while ignoring the operational improvement. At this valuation, the stock offers a wide margin of safety and significant upside if the company continues to deliver.
SBFG3.SA LONG
GLP-1 patent expiry boosts drugstores
The Brazilian drugstore sector is facing a generational opportunity: patents on blockbuster GLP-1 drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro) are expiring, and a flood of generic versions will drive the price from R$1,600 to R$400 or less. This will explode the addressable market from a few million consumers to tens of millions, more than compensating any near-term margin compression. The market, however, is myopically focused on the initial price decline and has crushed the stocks: Raia Drogasil fell from 25x to 15x earnings, Pague Menos has been hammered, and Panvel trades at 8x earnings. These are high-ROIC companies trading at crisis multiples, presenting a deep value entry point.
RADL3.SA LONG
PGMN3.SA LONG
PNVL3.SA LONG
20% real IRR but high leverage
Ecorodovias is a leveraged toll-road company that currently offers a compelling 20% real internal rate of return based on conservative assumptions, mainly because the stock was crushed by political and macro fears. The business has regulated cash flows and a hard-asset nature that, unlike cyclical firms, does not become more leveraged in a downturn. However, the high debt level and sensitivity to Brazil's economic cycle keep it as a small watch position. The speaker would consider increasing exposure once there is clearer visibility on the political and interest-rate environment.
ECOR3.SA WATCH
Dominant gym with 30% growth at 9x
SmartFit is a dominant low-cost high-value gym operator with a unique execution-driven model that replicates across Latin America. Its proprietary TotalPass aggregator platform acts as an 'iFood for gyms', growing at a blistering pace and improving bargaining power versus other networks. The company has no debt, returns on invested capital well above the cost of capital, and is increasing margins while opening 300+ units per year in a massive addressable market. Despite earnings growing 40% since the IPO, the stock has been compressed by forced selling (fund closures, redemptions), now trading at the lowest multiple in its history (9x forward earnings) when in a normal market it would command 18-20x. A turnaround in sentiment or a foreign buyer could quickly re-rate the stock.
SMFT3.SA LONG
14% dividend yield, hidden ad assets
Allos (formerly Aliansce Sonae) is led by Rafael Sales, one of the best capital allocators in Brazil, who arbitraged the BR Malls portfolio brilliantly and is now recycling capital to create a powerful recurring revenue engine. Hidden inside Allos is Hellow, an out-of-home media business that is winning major contracts for digital screens in airports and shopping malls, giving the company a high-margin advertising subsidiary that is not reflected in the stock. Additionally, Sales is structuring a real estate investment trust (FII) for a slice of the shopping center portfolio, which would generate perpetual management fees. The company is paying a dividend equivalent to ~14% yield, and even without multiple expansion the return from dividends alone is extraordinary. At 10x FFO, the shares are deeply mispriced versus global mall operators.
ALOS3.SA LONG
Franchise model, wellness, 8x earnings
Track&Field is an asset-light sports apparel franchise with a rare alignment model: the franchisor only charges a small markup (15%) over cost and earns royalties on sell-out, so it never pushes unwanted inventory onto franchisees—avoiding the 'sell-in' trap that ruined other brands. The wellness tailwind from GLP-1 weight-loss drugs will bring millions of new people into gyms, creating a structural demand boost for fitness clothing. The company also runs an ecosystem of events, sells high-margin supplements and coffee inside stores, and uses a small-box format with extraordinary sales per square meter. It has no debt, generates strong free cash flow, and trades at an absurd ~8x forward earnings with 25-30% annual earnings growth. The market wrongly treats it as a generic retailer, ignoring its quality and growth.
TFCO4.SA LONG
10% yield plus claim upside
ISA Cteep (ISAE4) is a defensive electric transmission utility trading at a dividend yield of ~10% and benefiting from an under-owned, under-followed situation. The company has an ongoing claim against the São Paulo state tax authority (Cfaz) that, if successful, could deliver a one-off gain equivalent to 25-30% of the market cap. Because the stock is held by very few investors, there is no redemption-driven selling pressure, making it a calm position with a solid carry and a potential large upside catalyst.
ISAE4.SA LONG
HIGH
23:42
Jul 27
Jul 27
Market Makers
26d
PETR4.SA
BBAS3.SA
CMIG4.SA
CSMG3.SA
BOVA11.SA
▾
MED
Privatization would unlock state-owned company value.
Electing Zema president would lead to the privatization of all state-owned enterprises, including Petrobras and Banco do Brasil. He argues that state-owned companies are used for political purposes, and privatization would unlock significant value, as demonstrated by Copasa and Cemig appreciating over 300% after his management reforms in Minas Gerais.
PETR4.SA WATCH
BBAS3.SA WATCH
CMIG4.SA WATCH
CSMG3.SA WATCH
Fiscal discipline would lower Brazilian rates.
A Zema presidency would implement a fiscal shock ('choque contra a gastança'), enforcing a spending cap and responsible fiscal management, which would cause Brazilian interest rates to fall to civilized levels, providing relief to the productive sector and benefiting Brazilian equities.
BOVA11.SA WATCH
MED
21:00
Jul 26
Jul 26
21:00
Jul 25
Jul 25
Market Makers
28d
HYPE 1ST
BTC 1ST
MSTR
COIN 1ST
ETH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hyperliquid: deflationary perpDEX with real revenue.
Hyperliquid é o caso de sucesso do ciclo: token sem VC, com baixa inflação e modelo de recompra e queima que atrela receita ao valor do token. Agora está expandindo para real world assets (petróleo, ouro) e busca conformidade regulatória nos EUA. Representa a nova geração de protocolos com produto, receita e captura de valor reais, tornando-se uma aposta de perpDEX com diferenciação clara.
HYPE LONG
Bitcoin near bottom, 2-3x upside ahead.
Bitcoin está muito próximo do fundo e deve iniciar recuperação para US$ 75-80 mil até o final de 2026 e US$ 150-180 mil no próximo ciclo. Os sinais incluem acumulação por investidores de longo prazo (long-term holders), métricas onchain (realized price, média móvel de 200 semanas) apontando formação de fundo, saídas recordes dos ETFs e vendas da Strategy que não conseguiram romper o suporte de US$ 58 mil. A resiliência diante de catalisadores negativos sugere que o pior já passou e o risco de esperar um fundo perfeito (ex: US$ 50 mil) é perder uma multiplicação de 2-3x em 2-3 anos. Também defende Bitcoin como diversificação patrimonial para grandes fortunas.
BTC LONG
Strategy is a cheap leveraged Bitcoin proxy.
Strategy (MicroStrategy) está extremamente barata: o prêmio sobre os bitcoins em caixa caiu de 3x para 1x, chegando a negociar com desconto em alguns momentos. A empresa tem dívida de US$ 6,7-7 bilhões contra mais de US$ 3 bilhões em caixa, com runway de mais de 20 meses para pagar dividendos em dinheiro. Quando o mercado de Bitcoin reaquecer, o prêmio deve retornar, tornando Strategy uma aposta de maior risco mas com beta alavancado ao Bitcoin, preferível a muitas altcoins aleatórias.
MSTR LONG
Coinbase has strong fundamentals at discount.
Coinbase caiu 70-80% como muitas altcoins, mas seus fundamentos permanecem sólidos: é custodante da maioria dos ETFs de Bitcoin à vista, reforçou parcerias com BlackRock, está na vanguarda de tokenização e infraestrutura regulatória. Quando o mercado cripto reaquecer, a Coinbase tem alta probabilidade de capturar receita significativa. Oferece exposição ao crescimento do setor com vantagens competitivas que tokens de L2 ou projetos sem receita não possuem.
COIN LONG
Ethereum is a buy after big pullback.
Ethereum é uma compra (buy). Apesar de não ser tão óbvia quanto em ciclos passados, está barato e deve se recuperar. O produto de ETF com staking da BlackRock será muito rentável para os gestores e deve reacender o interesse institucional.
ETH LONG
Pendle capitalizes on crypto volume via yield.
Pendle é uma tese forte dentro do setor de rendimentos (yield), que deve se beneficiar do aumento de volume no mercado cripto. Estratégias de market making e soluções de yield capturam taxas quando o volume explode. Para os próximos 12 meses, rendimentos e perpDEX são as verticais preferidas, e Pendle se destaca como um dos protocolos mais bem posicionados.
PENDLE LONG
HIGH
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