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11:00
Aug 22
Aug 22
Fernando Ulrich
14h
BTC
GLD
SILVER
DIESEL 1ST
BNO
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin benefits from fiat debasement and flows.
Bitcoin broke above $79,500 after the US Treasury announced more intervention to support long-term debt by issuing short-term debt, which Ulrich interprets as evidence that heavily indebted developed governments must tolerate higher inflation and keep debasing fiat currencies. He argues scarce, non-inflatable assets like Bitcoin should appreciate secularly. Technical signals also support upside: heavy short liquidation, the strongest ETF inflows since Bitcoin traded near $80,000, conviction long-term holders increasing purchases, and low spot volume above $75,000 creating an air pocket. He believes the worst is likely past and still sees a good long-term entry.
BTC LONG
Gold and silver rise on fiat debasement.
The same Treasury intervention and unsustainable sovereign debt backdrop show that fiat currencies will continue to be depreciated. Ulrich highlights gold, silver and other precious metals as scarce, non-inflatable assets that should appreciate as investors return to this secular conclusion.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
Diesel and oil face supply-driven upside.
Diesel is near its historical high and diesel crack spreads hit an all-time high due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, Middle East refinery disruptions and threats to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Russia is also restricting diesel exports, forcing Brazil to shift imports back toward the US and creating global supply tightness and potential fuel shortage risk.
DIESEL LONG
BNO LONG
US long bond yields likely stay elevated.
The US Treasury's intervention to buy long-term debt and issue short-term debt is only a palliative and does not address the fiscal deficit. Ulrich notes the 10-year yield has already moved back above 4.74% and the 30-year is retesting 5.30%, undoing the announcement effect. Without a credible structural fiscal adjustment, long-term Treasury yields are unlikely to fall and the debt profile worsens.
TLT AVOID
Foreign outflows pressure Brazilian equities.
Brazilian equities are seeing the third-largest foreign exodus since 2008, with recent three-month outflows from stocks and investment funds and a weak August. Ulrich highlights that the Ibovespa remains far from 200,000 points and the foreign debandada may not be over.
BOVA11.SA AVOID
Moderna mRNA cancer vaccine data is positive.
Moderna and Merck reported mRNA cancer vaccine results showing more than double the success in preventing recurrence or spread in high-risk melanoma, validating years of mRNA-based cancer research. The stock nearly tripled intraday and remains more than double, signaling a potentially new treatment approach.
MRNA LONG
Brazilian Bitcoin ETF and stock both favored.
In viewer Q&A, Ulrich affirmed both DIGY11 and ABTC3. He describes DIGY11 as Orange BTC's new B3 ETF that replicates Strategy/MicroStrategy exposure, giving Brazilian investors a Bitcoin-related vehicle, consistent with his bullish Bitcoin view.
DIGY11.SA LONG
ABTC3.SA LONG
HIGH
20:55
Aug 19
Aug 19
SILVER 1ST
BTC
TLT FLIP
IEF 1ST
USD/BRL
▾
HIGH
Scarce real assets outperform fiat debasement
The announcement triggered a sharp rally in scarce real assets: gold rose about 4% to around $4,500/oz, silver rose almost 5% above $66, and Bitcoin rose 5.4% above $68,000, touching $69,700, partly amplified by short covering. Ulrich argues this is not just a one-day move but a secular trend: central banks can create fiat money at will, while gold, silver, and Bitcoin are scarce and cannot be inflated away, so real assets should appreciate as national currencies debase.
SILVER LONG
BTC LONG
GLD LONG
Long-dated Treasuries supported by Treasury intervention
The US Treasury announced it will at least double liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities in the 10-20y and 20-30y sectors, from a maximum of $2bn to at least $4bn per operation. Ulrich interprets this as de facto yield curve control: the Treasury is not reducing debt or printing money, but is issuing short-dated debt to repurchase older long-dated debt specifically to stop long yields from rising. The announcement alone pushed the 30-year Treasury yield from above 5.3% back below 5.2% and the 10-year from about 4.75% to 4.65%, and he expects authorities to keep acting to hold long yields down.
TLT LONG
IEF LONG
USD/BRL falls on US Treasury move
The US Treasury's dollar-weakening signal directly benefits Brazil's exchange rate. USD/BRL had been climbing toward 5.22 and reversed to about 5.17 after the announcement, which Ulrich calls a gift from the US Treasury to Brazil.
USD/BRL SHORT
US dollar weakens on Treasury regime change
The Treasury announcement is a clear signal that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the Trump administration are determined to weaken the US dollar while capping long-term rates. The dollar index (DXY) had recently tested 101 and fell below the important 98.8 level after the announcement, confirming the intended weakening regime.
DXY SHORT
Yen strengthens with policy-backed dollar weakness
The Japanese yen is strengthening as part of the broad dollar selloff after the Treasury announcement, and Ulrich also points to the recent joint US Treasury/Bank of Japan intervention to defend the yen as evidence of the same policy alignment. USD/JPY was down about 0.9% on the day.
FXY LONG
Chinese yuan strengthens as Mar-a-Lago leg
Ulrich reiterates that the Chinese yuan is in a continuous strengthening process and says this is the main leg of the Mar-a-Lago accord. USD/CNY is at a floor around 6.729, a level not seen since 2023, and he sees chances of further yuan strength because that is the explicit policy objective.
USD/CNY SHORT
HIGH
11:00
Aug 17
Aug 17
USDBRL
BOVA11.SA
BHIA3.SA 1ST
SPY FLIP
JPY
▾
HIGH
Brazil risk repricing; real falls, stocks fall.
A disparada do dólar contra o real e a queda do Ibovespa estão precificando a piora do cenário brasileiro: as eleições passaram a favorecer Lula após os vazamentos dos áudios de Flávio Bolsonaro, o capital estrangeiro está saindo da B3 e migrando para oportunidades lá fora, e o câmbio agora é a variável que mais precifica o risco Brasil.
USDBRL LONG
BOVA11.SA AVOID
High rates destroy Casas Bahia.
A Casas Bahia reportou prejuízo de mais de R$ 10 bilhões no segundo trimestre, fechou quase 300 lojas e avalia nova recuperação judicial. Ulrich concorda que a principal causa não é só gestão ou competição, mas os juros estruturalmente altos que inviabilizam negócios dependentes de crediário e financiamento, como o varejo.
BHIA3.SA AVOID
US fiscal impulse supports US assets.
A economia americana está aquecida e ganhou novo impulso fiscal com bilhões de dólares em reembolsos tarifários após a Suprema Corte revogar tarifas de Trump. Isso se soma ao déficit fiscal e reforça a visão de que as oportunidades lá fora, especialmente nos EUA, seguem melhores do que o Brasil.
SPY LONG
Yen deeply undervalued; fair value 62.
O índice Katsu Curry, uma variante do Big Mac Index feita por analista do Bank of New York Mellon, indica que o iene japonês tem valor justo ao redor de 62 ienes por dólar, contra cerca de 160 atuais. Ulrich afirma que por qualquer métrica a moeda japonesa está muito desvalorizada.
JPY LONG
Bitcoin sentiment negative; good long-term entry.
Investidores estão saindo de Bitcoin e comprando ações americanas, enquanto o Bitcoin lateraliza na faixa de US$ 60-65 mil. Ulrich interpreta o sentimento muito negativo no setor como historicamente um bom momento de entrada para quem investe com horizonte de médio e longo prazo.
BTC LONG
DIGY11 offers monthly income via STRC.
O ETF DIGY11, lançado pela OranjeBTC para a B3, vai replicar a ação preferencial STRC da Strategy, que paga dividendos mensais ao redor de 12% ao ano em dólares. Ulrich demonstra entusiasmo com a chegada desse instrumento de renda mensal ao mercado brasileiro.
DIGY11.SA LONG
HIGH
18:35
Aug 13
Aug 13
BRL FLIP
▾
HIGH
Avoid BRL cash; currency debasement persists.
The Brazilian real has lost nearly 90% of its purchasing power since 1994 and will continue losing value because the Central Bank's 3% inflation target is effectively a continuous debasement of the currency. A falling IPCA rate does not mean prices are lower; it means prices are still rising more slowly, so holding cash in reais keeps eroding purchasing power.
BRL AVOID
HIGH
18:33
Aug 12
Aug 12
Fernando Ulrich
10d
GOOGL
SPY
MSFT
NVDA
▾
HIGH
Google/Microsoft cash flow consumed by AI capex.
Ulrich warns that even highly cash-generative hyperscalers are being stretched by AI capex: he cites Google and Microsoft as already using nearly all operating cash flow for AI investment and turning to equity and debt issuance, creating vulnerability if AI returns disappoint.
GOOGL WATCH
MSFT WATCH
US equities could boom; bubble signs accumulate.
Ulrich says the AI boom may still drive US corporate earnings and stock prices higher, but he sees accumulating warning signs from circular financing and securitization that make the market's AI-driven gains not normal and worth monitoring.
SPY WATCH
Nvidia's GPU-as-infrastructure narrative could extend boom.
Nvidia is trying to turn GPUs and AI data centers into a new financeable infrastructure asset class with recurring revenue and securitization. Ulrich sees this as a phase shift that could extend the AI capex boom and Nvidia chip sales if the market accepts the narrative, but the asset-class thesis is unproven and transfers bubble risk to institutional and retail investors.
NVDA WATCH
HIGH
11:00
Aug 09
Aug 09
Fernando Ulrich
13d
GLD
SMH
USD/BRL
TLT
▾
MED
Gold rallies on financial repression fears
Central banks, especially the US Treasury intervening to buy yen to prevent the BOJ from selling Treasuries, are effectively practicing financial repression by trying to control the long end of the yield curve. This erodes the value of long-term bonds as a hedge against inflation and fiscal risk, pushing investors into gold, which has no upside limit in protecting purchasing power.
GLD LONG
AI semiconductor supply chain faces correction risk
The AI boom's profitability is highly concentrated among semiconductor and equipment companies (41% operating margins), while application and model companies are deeply unprofitable (-60% margins). The most profitable layer depends on the least profitable for continued revenue growth and capital raising. If application companies fail to sustain spending, the AI semiconductor supply chain faces a significant correction risk, even though hyperscalers are still raising guidance.
SMH WATCH
BRL at risk of sharp depreciation
The exchange rate (USD/BRL) is the last adjustment variable for Brazilian markets. Interest rates are already stressed, stocks are deeply discounted, and the government only acts when the currency weakens sharply. If fiscal policies do not change, the BRL could quickly depreciate past 6.00 per dollar, forcing the government into emergency spending cuts rather than structural reforms.
USD/BRL LONG
Short US 30Y Treasury on AI debt glut
Hyperscaler capex is ballooning to 2.4% of US GDP this year and 3.1% next year. To fund this, large tech companies that traditionally generated cash and bought back stock are now tapping debt markets (Google alone raising $25 billion in debt, total raised by hyperscalers over $300 billion). This new demand competes with the US Treasury for global savings, adding upward pressure on long-term US yields and making long-dated Treasuries vulnerable.
TLT AVOID
MED
11:00
Aug 08
Aug 08
Fernando Ulrich
14d
JPY 1ST
BRL FLIP
▾
HIGH
Coordinated intervention to strengthen yen.
The US Treasury and Bank of Japan have coordinated intervention to strengthen the yen, with the US selling euros to buy yen. The policy objective is a weaker dollar. The yen is deeply undervalued by PPP measures (fair value estimated around 79-110 vs current 164), and the US is encouraging the BOJ to use Fed liquidity rather than selling Treasuries, enabling sustained intervention and a bullish setup for JPY.
JPY LONG
Weaker dollar policy will strengthen real.
The US policy of actively weakening the dollar will benefit the Brazilian real. Even though Brazil's government lacks fiscal responsibility, the favorable external environment of a weaker dollar will help the real strengthen, along with other emerging market currencies.
BRL LONG
HIGH
22:27
Aug 04
Aug 04
Fernando Ulrich
18d
BTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin's worst is over; buy now.
O hack da Coldcard, somado a outras notícias negativas e ao baixo sentimento do mercado, sinaliza que o pior já passou para o Bitcoin. O evento pode ser um marcador de fundo do ciclo, à semelhança do colapso da FTX, embora o volume roubado seja menor. Com os bitcoins abatidos e longe da euforia, é um momento propício para comprar, pois não estamos mais na fase de euforia e os preços se seguraram apesar das más notícias.
BTC LONG
HIGH
11:00
Aug 02
Aug 02
Fernando Ulrich
20d
FXY 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Historic official intervention to strengthen yen.
The Bank of Japan and the US Treasury have intervened aggressively to strengthen the Japanese yen. The US Treasury sold euros to buy yen, the first such direct intervention since 1998, signaling strong official support for a stronger yen. The Treasury Secretary explicitly views the yen as too weak and wants it to appreciate. This coordinated official action creates a powerful tailwind for the yen.
FXY LONG
China demand shift could move oil prices.
China has been acting as the 'demand-side OPEC' in the oil market, strategically reducing imports during Middle East conflicts to contain price spikes. The key question now is whether China will resume heavy buying. If China decides to import aggressively again, it could push oil prices significantly higher. This makes monitoring China's import behaviour an important catalyst for crude oil.
WTI WATCH
HIGH
13:35
Jul 30
Jul 30
Fernando Ulrich
23d
NVDA
META
005930.KS FLIP
000660.KS FLIP
Tesouro Prefixado longo
▾
HIGH
AI stocks face correction risk
Rising long-term US yields, persistent inflation, and growing doubts about the return on massive AI infrastructure investments are triggering a correction in AI-related stocks and pose a significant risk to investors exposed to this theme.
NVDA AVOID
META AVOID
005930.KS AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
Brazil long bonds pressured by US yields
Higher long-dated US Treasury yields are setting a floor for Brazilian long-term interest rates, making a meaningful decline very difficult and thus raising the risk of holding Brazilian long-duration government bonds.
Tesouro Prefixado longo AVOID
HIGH
11:08
Jul 26
Jul 26
Fernando Ulrich
27d
ARGT
WTI FLIP
NTN-B
GOOGL
MSFT
▾
HIGH
Argentina reforms improve credit and asset outlook.
Argentina is on the right track: Moody's upgraded its credit rating with a positive outlook, and the Milei government is pushing structural reforms including a new Central Bank charter to prohibit monetary financing of the fiscal deficit. This improves the investment case for Argentine assets.
ARGT LONG
Middle East conflict lifts oil prices.
Middle East tensions and continued attacks between the US and Iran show no sign of ending, pushing crude oil prices back above key levels and driving up inflation expectations as well as global yields.
WTI LONG
Brazil fiscal deterioration pushes bond yields higher.
Brazil's fiscal situation remains untackled, with the government insisting on policies that worsen the imbalance. As a result, long-dated inflation-linked bonds (NTN-B) have seen yields rise above 8%, and without concrete fiscal adjustment, these yields will continue to climb or stay elevated, making the bonds unattractive.
NTN-B AVOID
AI capex surge makes big tech vulnerable.
Big Tech companies heavily exposed to AI (Google, Microsoft, Tesla) are being penalized by the market because their massive capex spending on data centers, infrastructure, and hardware is consuming cash, leading to negative free cash flow (Google's first ever), rising debt-like commitments, and uncertain returns on investment. The market is repricing the risk of this spending spree.
GOOGL SHORT
MSFT SHORT
TSLA SHORT
Copper supply-demand imbalance lifts prices.
Copper may face scarcity due to a supply-demand mismatch driven by the boom in AI and critical minerals demand. When supply falls short, prices tend to rise, supporting a bullish copper thesis.
COPPER LONG
OBTC3 trades at discount to net assets.
OBTC3 (Orange BTC) is trading at a discount to its net asset value, making it a great opportunity. Although he is not adding to his position now because he is already heavily invested, he considers it undervalued.
OBTC3.SA LONG
HIGH
11:00
Jul 25
Jul 25
Fernando Ulrich
28d
EUR 1ST
USD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Diversify internationally to escape disastrous Brazilian policies.
The current and proposed PT economic program—raising taxes, expanding subsidized credit via state banks, hiking the minimum wage without productivity gains, and blaming high interest rates rather than cutting spending—will worsen fiscal deficits, increase public debt, fuel inflation, and likely trigger tighter capital controls. To protect wealth from this 'recipe for disaster,' investors should move capital abroad into hard currencies like USD and EUR, real assets, and international equities, securing their savings away from the deteriorating Brazilian environment.
EUR LONG
USD LONG
HIGH
11:00
Jul 21
Jul 21
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
AAPL FLIP
GOOGL
META
NVDA FLIP
AMZN
▾
HIGH
Conservative hardware play wins AI race.
Apple's conservative approach avoids massive AI capex, preserving high free cash flow and margins, while the market rewards its safety and it benefits from hardware demand for AI models. This positions Apple as a potential winner in the AI race despite lacking its own AI model.
AAPL LONG
Hyperscalers' capex binge erodes cash flow.
Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are burning cash on AI data centers, increasing debt, and seeing margins fall, while the return on these investments remains uncertain, making them less attractive.
GOOGL AVOID
META AVOID
AMZN AVOID
MSFT AVOID
Nvidia's valuation unlikely to last.
Nvidia's valuation above $5 trillion may not be sustained after a potential AI bubble burst, according to the speaker.
NVDA AVOID
HIGH
11:00
Jul 18
Jul 18
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
USD/BRL
MSFT
META
AMZN
ORCL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Buy dollars before Brazil elections
Due to rising re-election probability of Lula, radical discourse, and risk of increased IOF on remittances, Brazilian investors should allocate part of their wealth to dollars before the elections to hedge against potential BRL depreciation and capital controls.
USD/BRL LONG
Big Tech AI debt bubble risk growing
Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google, and Oracle are massively increasing debt issuance to fund AI investments, with total debt issuance surging to nearly $250 billion. The market is beginning to punish them, with bond spreads widening. The uncertain return on these investments and rising leverage could lead to a bubble and eventual bust, making these stocks risky.
MSFT AVOID
META AVOID
AMZN AVOID
ORCL AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
Hedge US debt risk with gold, Bitcoin
To protect against a possible US debt crisis and potential devaluation of the dollar, investors should diversify out of US government bonds and into assets without political interference such as gold and Bitcoin, which can serve as hedges.
GLD LONG
TLT AVOID
BTC LONG
Argentina inflation falling, reforms working
Under President Milei's libertarian reforms, fiscal surplus, monetary control, and exchange rate stability are leading to a sustained decline in inflation, which should continue and support Argentina's economic recovery, making Argentine assets attractive.
ARGT LONG
Chinese auto exports surging, BYD benefits
China's monthly auto exports surpassed 1 million units, growing 71% YoY, driven by electric and hybrid vehicles, and is on track to exceed 10 million in 2026, indicating strong competitive momentum for Chinese automakers like BYD.
1211.HK LONG
HIGH
17:35
Jul 16
Jul 16
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
LCI
NTN-B 1ST
CRA
CRI
▾
HIGH
LCI/LCA tax exemption at risk
The government is considering eliminating tax exemptions on private credit instruments LCI, LCA, CRI and CRA, alleging they divert funds away from NTN-B bonds. If implemented, the loss of tax benefits would make these instruments significantly less attractive, hurting investors who rely on them for tax-advantaged fixed-income exposure.
LCI WATCH
LCI WATCH
CRA WATCH
CRI WATCH
Brazil IPCA bonds becoming uninvestable
The Brazilian government cancelled a bond auction of NTN-B (Tesouro IPCA+) on June 22 because it could not find buyers at desired yields, reflecting severe market distrust. Fiscal deficits are widening, public debt has reached 94% of GDP and R$12 trillion, interest payments exceed R$1 trillion in 12 months. Despite IPCA+ yields above 8.5%, investors are increasingly reluctant to buy long-term government paper, seeing it not as an opportunity but as a risk of default. The government’s fiscal deterioration is forcing it to rely on short-term floating-rate debt (LFT/Selic), worsening the debt profile. With no spending cuts, only tax increases and interventionism, the sovereign credit risk is rising and long-term inflation-linked bonds should be avoided.
NTN-B AVOID
HIGH
13:12
Jul 14
Jul 14
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
SPY
FXY
Japanese 10-Year Government Bond
▾
MED
Japan repatriation threatens global markets
Japan's government may encourage its large pension funds, particularly the $1.8 trillion GPIF, to sell foreign assets and repatriate capital to buy domestic bonds, easing fiscal pressures. This could trigger a sell-off in global equities (especially the US) and a simultaneous rally in Japanese government bonds and the yen. The mere mention by the Finance Minister caused a temporary 10-year JGB yield drop and yen appreciation, signaling the potential market impact if concrete actions follow.
SPY WATCH
FXY WATCH
Japanese 10-Year Government Bond WATCH
MED
11:00
Jul 11
Jul 11
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
Tesouro Prefixado
NVDA FLIP
MU
005930.KS FLIP
000660.KS FLIP
▾
MED
Brazilian rates can fall further.
Despite headline inflation still above target at 4.64%, the current Selic rate is excessively restrictive, breaking companies and the economy, and the inflation pressure comes mainly from the fiscal deficit rather than loose monetary policy. The Central Bank is right to signal faster rate cuts, and there is clear room for Selic to decline from these unsustainably high levels.
Tesouro Prefixado LONG
AI capex boom continues, buy semiconductors.
The AI boom may last longer than many fear because companies across the supply chain are still raising massive amounts of capital—SK Hynix raised nearly $27 billion, SpaceX $85 billion, and even Amazon issued debt (though demand was softer). This continued funding will sustain hyperscaler spending on data center infrastructure and allow memory and chip makers to keep expanding capacity.
NVDA LONG
MU LONG
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
MED
11:00
Jul 04
Jul 04
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
TSLA 1ST
Tesouro IPCA+ 2029
Tesouro IPCA+ 2032
BTC FLIP
STRC
▾
HIGH
Tesla overvalued, avoid buying.
Despite impressive Full Self-Driving technology, Tesla's stock valuation is surreal and extreme, pricing in robotics/AI beyond what fundamentals justify; he cannot find a justification to buy and previously sold his token position.
TSLA AVOID
Avoid Brazil long bonds, fiscal stress.
Brazil's fiscal deterioration (widening deficit, debt/GDP approaching 94.3%), failed government bond auctions, and rising political uncertainty with Lula's re-election odds above 60% keep long-term IPCA+ yields extremely stressed (7-8.4%), making long Brazilian bonds unattractive.
Tesouro IPCA+ 2029 AVOID
Tesouro IPCA+ 2032 AVOID
Bitcoin bullish, bottom by October.
Bitcoin sentiment is at its worst, price dipped below 200-day MA, and the 4-year cycle suggests a time bottom around October before a new rally into 2027; fundamentals remain intact and the current environment opens a window of opportunity.
BTC LONG
Buy STRC, dividend policy solid.
MSTR's new liquidity policy commits to selling ~$1.25B Bitcoin per year to maintain a dollar cushion for preferred dividends, signaling seriousness about dividend payments and making STRC an attractive opportunity; he bought more when STRC fell below $85.
STRC LONG
HIGH
21:37
Jul 02
Jul 02
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
META
▾
MED
Meta's excess compute signals AI overinvestment risk.
Meta Platforms (META) announced it may rent out excess AI compute capacity, signaling that its massive infrastructure spending has not produced a competitive AI model or sufficient internal use. This raises doubts about the return on investment from AI capex, and the risk may extend to other hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Oracle. The speaker views this as a warning sign that could indicate broader overinvestment in AI.
META AVOID
MED
21:46
Jun 30
Jun 30
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
BRL 1ST
USDT
▾
MED
Brazilian Real remains weak, non-convertible currency.
The Brazilian Real is not a fully convertible currency and the current government has abandoned the agenda to make it convertible. The central bank's proposal to freeze crypto transactions and its restrictive stance toward innovation signal a desire for more control rather than improving the currency, keeping the BRL weak and unattractive globally.
BRL SHORT
Stablecoins gain adoption as BRL hedge.
Stablecoin adoption in Brazil is surging, with cumulative imports nearing USD 100 billion and 80-90% being stablecoins. Brazilians are increasingly using stablecoins as a hedge against the weak Real and to bypass capital controls. Global developments like the upcoming Open USD stablecoin will accelerate this trend, making USD-pegged stablecoins a growing store of value for Brazilian investors.
USDT LONG
MED
21:15
Jun 25
Jun 25
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
AAPL 1ST
GOOGL 1ST
META 1ST
T 1ST
MSFT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hyperscalers hurt by AI capex costs
As grandes empresas de tecnologia que estão escrevendo os cheques para infraestrutura de IA (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) enfrentam inflação de custos em chips e memórias, o que está pressionando suas margens e provocando quedas significativas em suas ações. O repasse de preços não está revertendo o pessimismo, indicando que seus papéis devem ser evitados.
AAPL AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
META AVOID
MSFT AVOID
AMZN AVOID
SoftBank narrative signals AI euphoria
A apresentação anual do SoftBank, com metas de valorização absurdas (um quadrilhão de ienes) e a analogia ridícula do ganso dos ovos de ouro, é um sinal clássico de euforia no ciclo de IA. O nível de 'bullshitagem' sugere que a ação está excessivamente especulada e deve ser evitada.
T AVOID
Memory chip makers win from AI capex
O boom de CAPEX em inteligência artificial está gerando uma divergência clara: os fabricantes de chips e memórias (check receivers) estão capturando todo o investimento e se valorizando fortemente, enquanto as empresas que gastam nessa infraestrutura (check writers) estão sofrendo com aumento de custos e queda nas ações. Micron e Sandisk exemplificam essa dinâmica de alta.
MU LONG
SNDK LONG
Leveraged ETFs amplify liquidation risk
ETFs alavancados três vezes (Nasdaq e semicondutores) atingiram recorde de ativos sob gestão, amplificando movimentos para ambos os lados. Com a recente queda, muitos investidores alavancados foram liquidados, acelerando as vendas. Esses produtos representam um risco extremo e devem ser evitados enquanto a fragilidade persistir.
TQQQ AVOID
SOXL AVOID
HIGH
20:30
Jun 23
Jun 23
Fernando Ulrich
2mo
STRC
▾
HIGH
Buy STRC dip, no short-term default.
Fernando Ulrich believes the recent decline in STRC (Strategy’s perpetual preferred share) below $100 is a buying opportunity. He argues the company will not default on its dividends in the short term, the dollar reserve is being rebuilt to cover payments, and the long-term Bitcoin treasury model remains sound. He personally plans to continue buying more STRC at these discounted prices.
STRC LONG
HIGH
11:00
Jun 20
Jun 20
Fernando Ulrich
2mo
STRC 1ST
▾
MED
Long STRC, sell-off is temporary
Despite a sharp sell-off in Strategy's preferred stock (STRC), the speaker remains long and does not plan to sell. He argues the sell-off is not a 'death spiral' for Strategy, and the fear is unwarranted. He promises a deeper analysis in a future video but maintains his bullish position.
STRC LONG
MED
11:00
Jun 14
Jun 14
Fernando Ulrich
2mo
NTNB 2032
USDBRL 1ST
Tesouro Prefixado 2029
BNO 1ST
SPCX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Short Brazilian government bonds yields rising
Lula is doubling down on fiscal irresponsibility, dismissing the importance of budget control and comparing Brazil's debt favourably to rich countries. Brazil's public debt is much shorter, heavily indexed to Selic and inflation, and the government continues to underestimate the problem. The yield curve has already opened sharply, with NTNB 2032 near 8.40% and Tesouro Prefixado 2029 near 14.7%, and yields will keep rising as the market demands higher risk premiums for the lack of fiscal seriousness.
NTNB 2032 SHORT
Tesouro Prefixado 2029 SHORT
Short Brazilian real on fiscal crisis
If Lula is re-elected and continues the current fiscal rhetoric, the Brazilian real will plunge, potentially reaching 6, 6.5 or 7 per dollar. Treasury auctions could fail and the government may resort to desperate heterodox measures, triggering a full-blown crisis. The structural fiscal damage makes the real a short.
USDBRL LONG
Bearish oil on peace deal
A potential pending peace deal between the US and Iran is driving oil prices lower. Brent crude has already dropped below $88 per barrel, and official confirmation of the deal would sustain or increase downward pressure as supply disruptions ease, including the resumption of oil exports from UAE and Kuwait through the Strait of Hormuz.
BNO SHORT
SpaceX's historic IPO, the largest ever, is a strong signal that the AI bubble may keep inflating for months or even years. With a very low float (~5%) and imminent inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, passive buying from ETFs and index funds will provide upward price pressure or at least offset insider selling, making the stock attractive in the near term.
SPCX LONG
HIGH
20:34
Jun 11
Jun 11
Fernando Ulrich
2mo
SPCX
Short SpaceX
▾
HIGH
Buy SpaceX only after a 50% drop.
SpaceX stock could surge at IPO due to strong demand and passive ETF inflows, but he will not buy now. He expects a sharp correction driven by dilution, lock-up expansion, engineering risks, and AI bubble uncertainty. He would only consider a long entry after at least a 50% decline below a $1 trillion valuation, which would provide a sufficient margin of safety to bet on Elon Musk's execution and the long-term multi-planetary mission.
SPCX WATCH
Never structurally short SpaceX.
Betting against Elon Musk with a structural short is extremely dangerous. Despite low probabilities of success for each venture, Musk has repeatedly delivered against all odds (Tesla, SpaceX, others). A structural short on his companies, including SpaceX, carries an unacceptable risk of devastating losses; therefore, one should never hold a structural short on SpaceX.
Short SpaceX AVOID
HIGH
20:00
Jun 09
Jun 09
Fernando Ulrich
2mo
USD/BRL
Tesouro Prefixado 2029
Tesouro IPCA+ 2050
▾
HIGH
USD/BRL will surge to 6.00–7.00.
O déficit fiscal e o endividamento crescentes levarão o mercado a precificar estresse, fazendo o dólar disparar para R$6,00, R$6,50, R$7,00, forçando o governo a um ajuste fiscal.
USD/BRL LONG
Brazilian bonds will sell off, yields spike.
As taxas de juros dos títulos públicos brasileiros são insustentáveis devido ao risco fiscal. O mercado forçará um ajuste fiscal, elevando as taxas dos prefixados para 15-16% ao ano e tornando os níveis atuais uma armadilha. Os juros reais também subirão, com o risco de rejeição do mercado caso as taxas de IPCA+ cheguem a 8-10%.
Tesouro Prefixado 2029 AVOID
Tesouro IPCA+ 2050 AVOID
HIGH
11:00
Jun 06
Jun 06
Fernando Ulrich
2mo
BTC FLIP
BOVA11.SA 1ST
MSTR
▾
HIGH
AI boom sucking capital, avoid Bitcoin.
The AI boom is sucking capital from crypto assets, and if AI stocks crash, Bitcoin will fall further. The bottom may not have been reached yet.
BTC AVOID
AI boom hurting Brazilian equities.
The AI boom is diverting capital from emerging markets, including Brazil, causing foreign investors to flee the Brazilian stock market.
BOVA11.SA AVOID
MicroStrategy cash reserve uncertainty, avoid.
Recent actions by Michael Saylor have created uncertainty about MicroStrategy's ability to pay dividends, and the company needs to reconstitute its cash reserves.
MSTR AVOID
HIGH
11:00
May 31
May 31
20:00
May 28
May 28
Fernando Ulrich
2mo
NVDA 1ST
INTC
AMD
AVGO 1ST
CSCO 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid AI semiconductor stocks due to bubble.
The AI semiconductor stocks are in a bubble similar to the dot-com bubble. While demand for AI compute is real, the capex cycle is likely unsustainable and will eventually reverse. The risk-reward for these stocks over the next 5-10 years is unfavorable, and the speaker is not buying any of them. He advises avoiding these names despite the potential for further short-term upside.
NVDA AVOID
INTC AVOID
AMD AVOID
AVGO AVOID
CSCO AVOID
MU AVOID
TSM AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
ASML AVOID
005930.KS AVOID
ARM AVOID
SMH AVOID
HIGH
11:01
May 23
May 23
20:34
May 20
May 20
Fernando Ulrich
3mo
BTC
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin is inevitable and superior technology.
The speaker argues Iran's adoption of Bitcoin for payments in the Strait of Hormuz is inevitable because Bitcoin is technologically superior: fast (10-minute blocks), cheap, trustless, verifiable via full node, irreversible after confirmations, and censorship-resistant (unlike USDT which can be frozen). Bitcoin is the only true final settlement asset in the digital age, superior to gold (logistics cost) and fiat (third-party dependency). This adoption validates Bitcoin's value and inevitability as 'monetary gunpowder'.
BTC LONG
HIGH
20:30
May 19
May 19
Fernando Ulrich
3mo
CASH 1ST
▾
MED
Raise cash for capital preservation.
In the current environment of rising global bond yields, fiscal risks, geopolitical tensions, and potential financial repression, investors should stay more liquid and raise their cash levels to protect against strong market corrections.
CASH LONG
MED
11:00
May 17
May 17
Fernando Ulrich
3mo
Tech IG corporate bonds
US Treasury 3yr
QQQ 1ST
▾
MED
Buy US Treasuries and tech IG bonds.
With 3-year U.S. Treasury yields jumping from 3.2% to 4.1% in the past month and 5-year yields at similar levels, fixed income now offers attractive risk-adjusted returns for capital preservation. He advises rebalancing into high-quality bonds, including U.S. Treasuries and investment-grade bonds of technology companies, as a core preservation strategy in the current uncertain macro environment.
Tech IG corporate bonds LONG
US Treasury 3yr LONG
Buy QQQ puts as correction hedge.
The market is extremely overconcentrated in seven AI-related mega-caps (Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Broadcom, Micron) which drive 52% of S&P 500 earnings growth while their free cash flow is falling. Any disruption to the AI capex cycle, e.g., from geopolitical shocks or failure to monetize investments, could trigger a severe correction. The VIX 3-month is near pre-war lows, making long-dated put options on the Nasdaq relatively cheap. He recommends buying 6-month put options on QQQ (Nasdaq ETF) at approximately 2 standard deviations strike (-35% from current level) as a hedge for investors who are still constructively positioned in equities.
QQQ SHORT
MED
11:00
May 16
May 16
Fernando Ulrich
3mo
Cash (USD)
Cash (BRL)
▾
MED
Increase cash in USD and BRL.
Increase cash allocation in both US dollars and Brazilian reais, using money market funds or similar liquid instruments, to be ready to deploy capital when market opportunities arise, particularly given the risk of a tech/AI correction and geopolitical uncertainties.
Cash (USD) LONG
Cash (BRL) LONG
MED
20:57
May 11
May 11
Fernando Ulrich
3mo
SPY 1ST
QQQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
S&P 500 low breadth, reduce.
The S&P 500 is showing historically low breadth (fewer stocks above 50-day moving average despite the index being 7% above it, and more new lows than new highs at an all-time high), signaling fragility. Burry recommends reducing equity exposure overall.
SPY AVOID
Nasdaq 100 bubble, reduce exposure.
The Nasdaq 100 has experienced parabolic gains resembling the dot-com bubble, with extreme moves in semiconductors and low market breadth, making it vulnerable to a sharp correction. Burry recommends reducing exposure to technology stocks.
QQQ AVOID
HIGH
11:00
May 10
May 10
Fernando Ulrich
3mo
BTC 1ST
OBTC3.SA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin as war safe haven and AI money
Bitcoin is the only truly decentralized digital asset backed by global liquidity and proof-of-work. It has demonstrated superior performance during geopolitical crises (e.g., the US-Iran conflict) while gold corrected. Furthermore, a survey indicated 70-80% of AI agents prefer Bitcoin as a medium of exchange, reinforcing its role as neutral digital money. These factors support a long-term bullish view on Bitcoin as a safe haven and future AI-driven settlement asset.
BTC LONG
OBTC3 trades at MNAV discount, buyback
OBTC3 is a Brazilian publicly-listed Bitcoin treasury company that currently trades at a meaningful discount to its Net Asset Value per share (MNAV of ~0.85-0.80). The company has a 5-year R$210 million debt with Itaú at CDI+1.85%, using Bitcoin as collateral, with proceeds earmarked for additional Bitcoin purchases and share buybacks. The buyback program increases Bitcoin per share when the stock is below MNAV. The company maintains low leverage, has ample cash, and is growing its shareholder base. This creates an asymmetric opportunity for investors to gain leveraged, discounted exposure to Bitcoin with a strong corporate structure.
OBTC3.SA LONG
HIGH
11:00
May 09
May 09
Fernando Ulrich
3mo
BORR 1ST
TROX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Oil demand rising, jackups essential.
Borr Drilling (BORR) remains a holding despite the stock's appreciation, because the world's demand for oil continues to rise, jackup rigs are the fastest and cheapest way to increase production, and the Iran conflict has shifted global focus to energy security, which should drive more jackup contracts. The stock was bought at much lower prices, and though the fund reduced its position from 30% to 10%, the thesis still holds.
BORR LONG
US chemicals boom, Tronox benefits.
Tronox (TROX) was bought when its stock was below $3, and has since risen nearly 300%, but the fund still holds a position. The thesis is that US chemical companies, especially TiO2 producers like Tronox, have a massive competitive advantage from cheap natural gas, while European and Chinese competitors have become unprofitable due to the Iran war. The narrative of overcapacity was wrong; demand for TiO2 continues to grow, and the US industry is benefiting disproportionately.
TROX LONG
HIGH
20:46
May 05
May 05
Fernando Ulrich
3mo
USDC 1ST
USDT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Stablecoins are attractive for dollar exposure.
Stablecoins (USDC/USDT) are being rapidly adopted by Brazilians as a digital dollar store of value and medium of exchange, with monthly inflows exceeding $2 billion and cumulative holdings near $60 billion. The trend is driven by convenience, lower costs, transparency, security, and the ability to self-custody, making them an attractive alternative to traditional banking for dollar exposure, despite potential regulatory headwinds like IOF.
USDC LONG
USDT LONG
HIGH
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