Loading...
Loading...
Loading...
Loading...
Loading...
Loading...
1 selected
Loading...
0 selected
Loading...
0 selected
0 selected
All post types✓
Portfolio updates✓
Stock lists✓
Research✓
News✓
All Content✓
Source feeds
Buzzberg Top 50
✓
All market capsNo capitalization filter✓
200 B and aboveMega✓
10 B to 200 BLarge✓
2 B to 10 BMid✓
0 to 2 BSmall✓
Custom
Enter market cap range in B USD
All directions✓
▲ Long✓
▼ Short✓
⛔ Avoid✓
✂ Close✓
◦ Others✓
Any score✓
LOW+✓
MED+✓
HIGH✓
16:30
Sep 03
Sep 03
Pablo Gil
1d
Global sovereign long-duration bonds
UK 10-Year Gilt
German 10-year Bund
French 10-year OAT
Japanese 10-year JGB
▾
HIGH
Global long-term sovereign yields breaking higher.
Long-term sovereign yields are rising simultaneously across major developed economies, so this is not one country's problem. The sovereign bond is the base price of money for mortgages, corporate financing, real estate credit and equity valuations. The market is questioning future debt volume, inflation persistence and government credibility, not just central bank policy.
Global sovereign long-duration bonds SHORT
UK gilts target higher yields.
The UK 10-year gilt yield has broken 4.85% and is approaching 5%, a level where the market starts to question how long the government can sustain high deficits before interest payments absorb a growing share of the budget. Technical structure points to targets near the 6.5% area, leaving gilts vulnerable to further price declines.
UK 10-Year Gilt SHORT
German bund yields target 4%.
Germany's 10-year bund yield has exceeded 3%, after years when investors accepted negative yields for safety. The chart structure points to additional rises toward 4%, so Bund prices remain vulnerable.
German 10-year Bund SHORT
French OAT yields approaching 4%.
France's 10-year OAT yield has broken above 3.55-3.60% and is approaching 4%. The market is pricing persistent deficits, public debt above 110% of GDP and political difficulty adjusting spending, so OAT prices face continued pressure.
French 10-year OAT SHORT
Japanese JGB yields rising sharply.
Japan is the most spectacular regime change: after decades of zero rates, deflation and massive BOJ debt purchases, the 10-year JGB yield approaches 3% while 20- and 30-year yields are near or above 4%. Longer maturities are commanding a higher premium, signaling further JGB price weakness.
Japanese 10-year JGB SHORT
Japanese 30-year JGB SHORT
US long Treasuries breaking higher yields.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has broken above 5.2%, clearing a multi-year resistance zone. Long maturities embed inflation, fiscal risk, term premium and uncertainty about lending for decades; the market is demanding more compensation to lock up money long-term. That is the cleanest message of rising long-end yields.
TLT SHORT
Avoid expensive AI-linked equities.
AI can transform the economy, but some AI-linked equities may deliver disappointing returns if investors paid too much for them. The higher the valuation and the greater the sensitivity to a rising discount rate, the more risk those companies face.
High-valuation AI stocks AVOID
Avoid excessive bond duration.
Rising yields hurt existing long-duration bondholders but improve expected returns for new buyers. Since the adjustment may not be over and yields may break new resistance, investors should distinguish earning an attractive coupon from taking excessive duration.
Long-duration government bonds AVOID
Avoid debt-heavy real estate/infrastructure.
AI is becoming an unexpected competitor for capital, electricity, land and financing capacity. Highly indebted traditional real estate and infrastructure projects will need to prove sufficient returns to survive a higher cost of money, leaving the sector exposed.
Listed real estate and infrastructure AVOID
Gold favorable long-term; buy corrections.
The combination of growing debt, persistent deficits and doubts about fiat currencies remains favorable for gold over the long term. However, spikes in real yields can produce important short-term corrections that may become big buying opportunities.
GLD LONG
HIGH
16:00
Sep 02
Sep 02
Pablo Gil
2d
Component manufacturers, automation, sensors, motors and semiconductors
Humanoid robotics sector
688836.SS
▾
HIGH
Play robotics via supply chain exposure.
Since ordinary European brokers generally do not offer access to Unitree's Shanghai STAR shares, the more prudent way for retail investors to participate in the humanoid robotics theme is indirect exposure through component manufacturers, automation, sensors, motors and semiconductors, which benefit from robotics growth while avoiding Unitree-specific valuation, counterparty and liquidity risks.
Component manufacturers, automation, sensors, motors and semiconductors LONG
Humanoid robot adoption may hit inflection.
Optimistic forecasts see global humanoid robot shipments going from tens of thousands of units to more than 1 million before the end of the decade, with China representing a large part of production and demand, and automation helping China offset workforce aging; if this inflection arrives the humanoid robotics sector could be transformational, but it remains a developing theme rather than a proven commercial end-market.
Humanoid robotics sector WATCH
Unitree excellent long-term but current valuation risky.
Unitree Robotics (Yushu Technology) is a real leader in humanoid robots with revenue growth above 300%, profitability, DeepSeek AI integration and a privileged position in China's strategic robotics push, so it could be one of the great long-term winners; however, after its 629% debut spike and partial deflation it still trades around 139x 2025 sales and roughly 850x net income, requiring near-perfect execution, while Q1 2026 adjusted profit fell 53% and risks remain from commercialization, competition, geopolitics and a thin retail-driven float, so investors should wait for a much less demanding valuation rather than chase the current price.
688836.SS WATCH
HIGH
16:00
Aug 31
Aug 31
Pablo Gil
4d
EEM FLIP
GLD FLIP
SMH 1ST
UUP 1ST
U.S. 2-Year Treasury Note
▾
HIGH
Strong dollar pressures emerging markets.
A stronger dollar driven by higher expected U.S. rates tends to tighten global financial conditions, makes dollar-denominated financing more expensive, and can pressure emerging markets. This is a direct downstream risk from the dollar-supportive rate environment.
EEM AVOID
Gold and Bitcoin vulnerable to higher rates.
The hawkish repricing is not a certainty because the Fed remains data-dependent and is reducing forward guidance. If August employment weakens quickly or inflation surprises to the downside, hike probabilities could fall as fast as they rose; in that disinflation scenario, short-term bonds would recover, the dollar could weaken, and long-duration assets such as technology, gold and Bitcoin could benefit.
GLD AVOID
UUP LONG
U.S. 2-Year Treasury Note SHORT
NASDAQ Composite AVOID
BTC AVOID
Avoid AI chip suppliers on margin doubts.
Warsh questioned who will capture AI productivity benefits: value could stay with chipmakers, data centers, utilities or large platforms, or competition could shift much of it to users and compress margins. Current AI-related valuations already discount extraordinary long-term returns, so a higher discount rate raises the bar and is already pressuring some semiconductor makers and infrastructure suppliers.
SMH AVOID
HIGH
20:32
Aug 26
Aug 26
Pablo Gil
9d
XLRE 1ST
TLT 1ST
GLD
SILVER 1ST
QQQ
▾
HIGH
Favor real assets over stretched equities.
After significant corrections in silver, gold and crypto, and with structural support in real estate, precious metals, commodities, crypto, real estate and alternative assets offer better risk-adjusted return than already-extended indices, growth stocks and megatrends.
XLRE LONG
DBC LONG
Alternative assets LONG
Avoid long-term debt; prefer short-term.
Despite central bank cuts, long-term yields have risen to 2007 levels because markets, not central banks, now price money; rising fiscal deficits and debt refinancing make long-duration debt unattractive, and the speaker says he wants only short-term debt.
TLT AVOID
Favor real assets over stretched equities.
Unlimited fiat money creation is depreciating purchasing power; assets with restricted supply—gold with 1.5-2.5% annual supply growth, Bitcoin with a 21 million hard cap with over 90% issued, and silver with rigid production plus rising industrial demand—are good protection and alternatives.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
BTC LONG
Avoid overly concentrated expensive mega-cap tech.
He avoids Nvidia, the Magnificent Seven and Nasdaq 100 because they are circular, heavily indebted, excessively weighted, expensively valued and CDS spreads are rising; concentration creates risk of a severe drawdown, so he prefers safer 10-12% investments.
QQQ AVOID
MAGS AVOID
NVDA AVOID
China equities face regulatory and confidence risks.
Chinese equities have not rewarded investors because regulators crushed tech champions, undermined free-market confidence and created doubts about property rights; he exited China in November after nearly 100% gain and does not currently hold it.
FXI AVOID
Unitree Robotics looks ridiculously cheap.
He believes Unitree Robotics is trading at ridiculous prices, though it is complicated to buy; access solutions will be discussed at the event.
688836.SS LONG
US leadership fading; ex-US equities attractive.
US equities began underperforming global equities in 2025: the relative of S&P 500 vs MSCI World ex-US has turned down with lower highs and lower lows, signaling other equity indices are more attractive even as investors remain concentrated in US AI mega-caps.
SPY AVOID
ACWX LONG
Tokenization of real assets is growing.
Beyond Bitcoin, the tokenized world is expanding: equities, bonds, money market funds, private credit, real estate, commodities and art can be fractionalized, traded 24/7, used as collateral and settled automatically, creating a growth opportunity in real-world asset tokenization.
Tokenization / real-world assets LONG
Buy BTC and ETH on breakouts.
He is already buying and following a trigger-based plan: start buying Bitcoin if it reclaims 67,000 and complete at 84,000; start buying Ethereum above 1,850 and deploy 100% on a weekly close above 2,500, rather than waiting for 40,000 or 1,000.
ETH LONG
Spanish residential real estate remains structural opportunity.
Housing scarcity is structural: limited finalist land, slow permitting, legal insecurity, expensive construction finance and materials/labor restrict supply while migration, smaller households and urbanization support demand; Spain still looks cheap versus the world, so residential real estate should keep rising and is investable from small amounts.
Spanish residential real estate LONG
Rearmament and security megatrend attracts capital.
Geopolitical fragmentation, tariffs, sanctions and duplicated supply chains are raising costs and driving a huge rearmament/security cycle; defense spending is rising globally and security now extends to energy, electric grids, semiconductors, data centers and critical infrastructure, creating investment flows into these new megatrends.
Defense & security sector LONG
Private markets offer pre-IPO upside.
Private markets are no longer only for wealthy or institutional investors: digital platforms now allow small minimums and access to pre-IPO companies. High-value creation occurs before IPO as seen with SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, so waiting for a listing means arriving late; private equity/venture can improve diversification.
Private markets / private equity LONG
Dutch AEX is a preferred market.
He has defended the Dutch AEX for over a year as one of the best equity markets; the idea already worked well and remains a preferred non-US index.
Euronext:AEX LONG
AI remains a powerful megatrend.
AI will drive a major increase in productivity, innovation and GDP, especially in developed economies with digital/energy infrastructure, capital, chips and talent; the acceleration makes it essential to be positioned via ETFs rather than trying to pick the winner.
AI LONG
Emerging markets are currently attractive.
Among equity indices outside the US, he currently likes emerging markets and the MSCI Emerging Markets index/ETF.
EEM LONG
Japan medium-term thesis still valid.
His medium/long-term Japan thesis remains valid; the strategy target is around 36% and even after trimming gains to 7% the stop has not been hit, so he still defends it.
EWJ LONG
HIGH
16:00
Aug 17
Aug 17
Pablo Gil
18d
CBRS 1ST
XLU 1ST
NVDA 1ST
TSLA 1ST
XPEV 1ST
▾
HIGH
Cerebras has fast AI inference edge
Jon says Cerebras has a $20bn contract with OpenAI to supply chips alternative to NVIDIA and runs inference 15x faster; faster AI is the kind of enabling change that made Netflix possible after broadband.
CBRS LONG
Avoid electric utilities; AI solves energy
Pablo argues that buying electric utilities because data-center cooling is today's bottleneck is misguided: AI itself will find much cheaper energy within two years, just as SMS bandwidth bottlenecks disappeared, so the current energy bottleneck should not be chased.
XLU AVOID
Nvidia core AI demand stays strong
Jon sees an AI bubble but says it has room to inflate and the likely eventual blow-up will be in pets.com-style startups; he doubts NVIDIA stops billing strongly because its results are incredible.
NVDA LONG
Autonomous driving adoption is accelerating
Jon says autonomous driving is hitting an exponential inflection: Waymo already operates robotaxis and expanded to airports, Tesla and XPeng robotaxis are working in China, and human driving may eventually be banned; robotaxi fleets will spread rapidly in cities.
TSLA LONG
XPEV LONG
WAYMO LONG
Unitree absurdly cheap versus robotics impact
Pablo says robotics will deliver a massive shock as AI gets bodies. He highlights Unitree, the world's top-selling robot maker, valued at only about $6 billion compared with Walmart around $1 trillion despite likely greater future impact.
ROBO LONG
Energy and data centers are bottleneck
Jon says energy is the AI bottleneck: nuclear construction takes seven years, Spain has a problem after closing plants, US data-center construction spending just passed office spending, and Jevons paradox plus exploding token consumption means compute and energy will remain scarce; Sam Altman warned companies to pre-buy AI access for three years.
XLE LONG
HIGH
16:00
Jul 26
Jul 26
Pablo Gil
1mo
GLD
▾
HIGH
Gold has a structural bullish trend.
Gold has a structural long-term uptrend driven primarily by the continuous depreciation of fiat currencies due to relentless money supply expansion. Since abandoning the gold standard in 1971, the purchasing power of the dollar (and all fiat currencies) has collapsed, pushing up the price of real assets like gold. Historical corrections of 50% or even 70% have not changed this structural bias. Additionally, central bank buying has been a strong demand pillar, while supply growth is stable around 2% annually. Gold also provides portfolio diversification, performing well in 8 out of 10 severe equity downturns.
GLD LONG
HIGH
15:14
Jul 22
Jul 22
16:00
Jul 21
Jul 21
19:41
Jul 12
Jul 12
16:00
Jul 05
Jul 05
Pablo Gil
2mo
ETH 1ST
BTC
▾
HIGH
Ethereum likely to fall to $1,000.
Ethereum is still in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. Applying the same historical pattern of diminishing corrections, he expects a drawdown close to 80%, which would take Ethereum to roughly $1,000. There is a significant support zone around $1,000 where he plans to start nibbling with a small initial position, then add more if price moves deeper into that zone, and ideally complete the position if it reaches $1,000. The lower target would represent a near‑80% correction from highs.
ETH LONG
Bitcoin targets $35,000 by late 2026.
Bitcoin is in a crypto winter that is not over. Historical halving cycles show corrective phases of decreasing magnitude; from the all‑time high, a 72% correction would target around $35,000. The price structure remains bearish with lower highs and lower lows, and the monthly momentum oscillator (Chande) has not yet reached the oversold zone that marked prior bottoms. He expects the bottom to form around October–November 2026 based on 12–13 month correction durations after the peak. He plans to scale into Bitcoin from $50,000 down to $38,500–$39,000, increasing the position size as price falls, and is willing to hold with no stop‑loss if it keeps falling because the asymmetric risk/reward (potential triple vs zero) is highly favorable.
BTC LONG
HIGH
16:00
Jun 14
Jun 14
Pablo Gil
2mo
NVDA 1ST
MSFT 1ST
AAPL 1ST
META 1ST
AMZN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid mega-cap tech on concentration risk
The extreme concentration of the S&P 500 in a handful of mega-cap tech stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta) leaves the overall market dependent on these few names continuing to deliver exceptional results. Current valuations are among the most demanding in history, and the margin for disappointment is very small, making these stocks risky at current levels.
NVDA AVOID
MSFT AVOID
AAPL AVOID
META AVOID
AMZN AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
Nasdaq faces risk from unprofitable mega-IPOs
Nasdaq is adapting its rules to quickly include massive new IPOs like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic that do not yet earn profits, while the S&P 500 maintains stricter profitability requirements. This divergence means Nasdaq could become more exposed to high-risk, high-valuation companies, increasing its vulnerability if the AI and growth narratives falter.
QQQ AVOID
Emerging markets provide diversification from US tech
Emerging markets can serve as a valuable diversification tool to reduce the risk of excessive dependence on a single region or a narrow group of US mega-cap tech companies. All-time highs do not necessarily mean overvaluation; relative valuations should be analyzed, and emerging markets currently offer a way to build a more balanced portfolio without relying on one story functioning forever.
EEM LONG
HIGH
16:00
Jun 07
Jun 07
16:00
May 24
May 24
16:00
May 10
May 10
Pablo Gil
3mo
BTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Buy Bitcoin at 50k-40k for next cycle.
Based on the historical pattern of crypto winters, Bitcoin is expected to continue its decline to around 35,000-40,000 by October-November 2026. Pablo Gil plans to accumulate Bitcoin at 50,000, 45,000, and 40,000, completing his position below 40,000. This strategy aims to achieve a 3:1 risk/reward ratio, targeting a return to the 125,000+ level in the next cycle.
BTC LONG
HIGH
16:00
May 03
May 03
Pablo Gil
4mo
SPY
BNO
▾
MED
Oil spike historically precedes S&P500 correction.
Historical data shows that sharp oil price rallies have been followed by significant corrections in the S&P 500 (18-27%), and the current oil spike has not yet triggered a correction, presenting a latent downside risk for equities.
SPY WATCH
Oil technical breakout possible, watch.
Oil is forming a bullish flag pattern on the chart and is at a critical technical level; a breakout could trigger a strong impulsive move higher, but the outcome depends on geopolitical narratives such as peace talks.
BNO WATCH
MED
16:00
Apr 19
Apr 19
Pablo Gil
4mo
SPY 1ST
EWJ 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid US equities; seek alternatives.
Despite strong inflows and retail buying, the US stock market shows technical deterioration relative to global equities, with lower highs and lower lows, indicating it is losing its leadership; investors should reduce overweight positions and look elsewhere.
SPY AVOID
Japanese equities as relative alternative.
Japanese equities are a preferred alternative to US stocks in relative terms, as the US loses its market leadership and Japan offers a better relative risk-reward for international diversification.
EWJ LONG
Central banks shift to gold.
Central banks are rapidly shifting reserves from US Treasuries to gold as a safe haven due to loss of confidence in the US dollar and geopolitical uncertainty, supporting further gold price appreciation.
GLD LONG
HIGH
16:00
Apr 12
Apr 12
Pablo Gil
4mo
JETS 1ST
ITA 1ST
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Airlines rebound strongly on ceasefire.
Airlines are one of the most affected sectors by the conflict and would experience a strong rebound if a credible ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz materializes, as travel demand and fuel costs normalize.
JETS LONG
Defense sector wins from military spending.
The defense sector is a winner because the conflict is driving massive increases in military spending globally, including a $1.5 trillion extra defense request in the US and similar pressures in Europe and Asia.
ITA LONG
US energy sector benefits from conflict.
The US energy sector (oil and gas producers) is a clear beneficiary because it is not dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, it is the world's largest LNG exporter, and it gains pricing power from higher energy prices caused by the conflict.
XLE LONG
HIGH
Choose Sources
Loading sources...