¿Ha terminado el CRIPTOINVIERNO… o esto es una TRAMPA?
Speakers
Pablo Gil
— Head of Research, 21Shares
Summary
Pablo Gil analyzes whether the current crypto rally is the end of the crypto winter or a trap. He maintains his bearish short-term outlook on Bitcoin, expecting a decline to 35-40k by late 2026. He also discusses the underperformance of altcoins and the role of stablecoins in supporting US Treasury debt.
- Bitcoin's recent rally is seen as a corrective bounce within an ongoing crypto winter.
- Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin could drop to 35,000-40,000 by October-November 2026.
- Pablo Gil plans to accumulate Bitcoin at 50k, 45k, and 40k to improve his entry.
- Altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple are lagging Bitcoin, confirming the corrective phase.
- Bitcoin relative to Nasdaq and Gold is expected to weaken further.
- Stablecoins (USDT/USDC) are heavily backed by US Treasury bills, creating significant demand for short-term US debt.
- The US fiscal deficit and debt are structural concerns, with stablecoins becoming an ally for financing.
- Pablo Gil promotes an upcoming event in Madrid for investors.
Trade Ideas
Buy Bitcoin at 50k-40k for next cycle.
Based on the historical pattern of crypto winters, Bitcoin is expected to continue its decline to around 35,000-40,000 by October-November 2026. Pablo Gil plans to accumulate Bitcoin at 50,000, 45,000, and 40,000, completing his position below 40,000. This strategy aims to achieve a 3:1 risk/reward ratio, targeting a return to the 125,000+ level in the next cycle.
