¿Hay que comprar oro AHORA o esperar a que CAIGA MÁS?
Speakers
Pablo Gil
— Head of Research, 21Shares
Summary
Pablo Gil analyzes gold's structural bull trend driven by fiat depreciation, central bank demand, and its diversification role. He compares a 60/40 portfolio with gold versus bonds, showing gold has historically delivered higher returns and better protection. He concludes gold deserves a permanent structural allocation and favors gradual accumulation during corrections.
- Gold corrections of 50% or more are historically normal and do not break the secular uptrend.
- The main structural driver is relentless fiat currency depreciation caused by expanding money supply since 1971.
- The historic real-interest-rate correlation broke in 2021; other factors like monetary policy and trust in currencies now matter more.
- Central bank buying has risen structurally but is not the sole price driver; global supply growth is stable around 2%.
- Gold provides significant diversification, performing well in 8 out of 10 severe equity bear markets since 1973.
- A 60/40 portfolio with gold instead of bonds has generated higher long-term returns with better stability during equity stress.
- The speaker recommends accumulating gold gradually during corrections, with a long-term structural trend as the tailwind.
Ideas
Gold has a structural bullish trend.
Gold has a structural long-term uptrend driven primarily by the continuous depreciation of fiat currencies due to relentless money supply expansion. Since abandoning the gold standard in 1971, the purchasing power of the dollar (and all fiat currencies) has collapsed, pushing up the price of real assets like gold. Historical corrections of 50% or even 70% have not changed this structural bias. Additionally, central bank buying has been a strong demand pillar, while supply growth is stable around 2% annually. Gold also provides portfolio diversification, performing well in 8 out of 10 severe equity downturns.
