¿Por qué BITCOIN seguirá BAJANDO? Niveles CLAVE para el próximo ciclo
Speakers
Pablo Gil
— Head of Research, 21Shares
Summary
Pablo Gil explains why he believes Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have not yet bottomed, predicting Bitcoin will fall to $35,000 and Ethereum to around $1,000 by October–November 2026, based on halving-cycle patterns and technical structure. He details his scaling entry plan, alternative breakout signals to watch, and risk/reward rationale, while using cross-asset relative charts (vs Nasdaq, gold, altcoins) to reinforce the ongoing crypto winter. A brief Q&A addresses energy demand for AI, suggesting the technology will solve its own energy problem.
- Bitcoin is still in a crypto winter with lower highs and lower lows, having already fallen over 50% from its all‑time high.
- Historical halving corrections point to a ~72% drawdown, giving a Bitcoin target of $35,000.
- The bottom is expected around October–November 2026 based on 12–13 month correction durations after the peak.
- He plans to scale into Bitcoin from $50,000 down to $38,500, using no stop‑loss due to a favorable 1:3 risk/reward profile.
- Ethereum may fall near 80% to around $1,000, with initial buying at that support level.
- Upside breakout levels at $83,000 (BTC) and $1,850 (ETH) would signal trend changes and alternative entry points.
- Relative charts versus Nasdaq, gold, and altcoins still show no signs of a crypto winter end.
- On AI and energy, he expects the technology to generate its own efficiencies, leaving the energy sector outlook uncertain.
Ideas
Bitcoin targets $35,000 by late 2026.
Bitcoin is in a crypto winter that is not over. Historical halving cycles show corrective phases of decreasing magnitude; from the all‑time high, a 72% correction would target around $35,000. The price structure remains bearish with lower highs and lower lows, and the monthly momentum oscillator (Chande) has not yet reached the oversold zone that marked prior bottoms. He expects the bottom to form around October–November 2026 based on 12–13 month correction durations after the peak. He plans to scale into Bitcoin from $50,000 down to $38,500–$39,000, increasing the position size as price falls, and is willing to hold with no stop‑loss if it keeps falling because the asymmetric risk/reward (potential triple vs zero) is highly favorable.
Ethereum likely to fall to $1,000.
Ethereum is still in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. Applying the same historical pattern of diminishing corrections, he expects a drawdown close to 80%, which would take Ethereum to roughly $1,000. There is a significant support zone around $1,000 where he plans to start nibbling with a small initial position, then add more if price moves deeper into that zone, and ideally complete the position if it reaches $1,000. The lower target would represent a near‑80% correction from highs.
