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14:26
Aug 21
Aug 21
Frontier AI model companies
AI Data Centers
TSLA
UBER
GOOG
▾
MED
Rising yields and politics threaten frontier AI.
Rising Treasury yields are constraining the money supply for risk-seeking assets, which reduces funding for capital-intensive data centers. Combined with growing political pushback against data centers, frontier AI model companies are highly vulnerable because they lack investment-grade balance sheets and cannot fund the massive compute capacity required to sustain their growth.
Frontier AI model companies AVOID
AI Data Centers AVOID
Autonomous vehicles face imminent local regulatory bans.
Autonomous vehicle technology is making massive progress, with Uber partnering with Zipline, Waymo rapidly expanding its fleet, and Tesla launching its cyber cab. However, because these technologies extract wealth from local communities and polarize it into Silicon Valley, they will face severe political backlash, leading to outright bans or strict licensing limits in major cities like New York, Boston, and DC.
TSLA WATCH
UBER WATCH
GOOG WATCH
Unsustainable debt will trigger socialist wealth taxes.
The US is facing a severe affordability crisis driven by excessive government spending and debt, pushing the 30-year Treasury yield to 20-year highs. This fiscal trajectory is unsustainable and will inevitably lead to a massive political shift toward socialist policies and aggressive wealth taxation by 2028, as the middle class is priced out of housing and assets.
TLT WATCH
MED
01:06
Aug 18
Aug 18
Mass Surveillance, Police Misuse, and Who Controls Your Flock Cameras with Flock CEO, Garret Langley
Flock Safety
▾
HIGH
Flock Safety growing with durable demand.
Flock Safety is scaled and still growing: roughly 6,000 cities, over 1 million crimes solved, more than 10,000 missing people found, LPR just under 50% of forward-looking revenue, drones the fastest-growing unit, new audit tools strengthening law-enforcement accountability, and despite PR backlash churn is only about 1% after the company raised money earlier this year. Langley frames demand for community safety as a durable core need and expects the business to recover and remain in good shape.
Flock Safety LONG
HIGH
20:36
Aug 14
Aug 14
META
CAT 1ST
UNG 1ST
SMH
ANTHROPIC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Meta will have best open-source model.
Zuckerberg and Meta are positioned to have the best open-source AI model within the next year; open source is 90% cheaper and corporate America is already embracing it to avoid being locked into one large vendor, making Meta a winner in the decentralized AI race.
META LONG
Data centers boost turbine and power demand.
AI data center buildout is creating huge demand for power equipment and turbines; jet engines are being pulled from old planes and repurposed as turbines for data centers, and Caterpillar, Cummins, GE Vernova and Siemens Energy are all expanding capacity fast to meet the demand.
CAT LONG
ENR.DE LONG
GEV LONG
CMI LONG
Natural gas powers near-term data centers.
Green energy cannot scale in the short term, so the next wave of new data centers will be powered by natural gas; America has abundant natural gas, which is the cleanest carbon fuel, supporting sustained gas demand from the AI buildout.
UNG LONG
Anthropic earnings pace semiconductor supply chain.
Anthropic's forthcoming quarterly earnings will be the most important industry signal for AI capex because Anthropic's demand feeds the entire hardware chain—SpaceX, Nvidia, TSMC, Micron and SK Hynix—and any demand hiccup would show up first and could cause a pileup across the semiconductor supply chain.
SMH WATCH
Anthropic IPO could price low and rise.
Anthropic's reported numbers are exceptional and the business has executed well; the $2T IPO figure may be a leaked bar from bankers who lost lead-left, and if it prices around $2T, it likely means testing-the-waters and roadshow demand were strong, so it could trade to $3T or more.
ANTHROPIC LONG
Software buyouts return with Workday bid.
Silver Lake's reported ~$43B acquisition bid for Workday shows software has been oversold and private equity is returning as a buyer; open-source AI is also a positive for the software industry because it prevents a few frontier model providers from extracting all software value.
WDAY LONG
Frontier tokens keep most economic value.
Anthropic and OpenAI can sustain premium pricing for frontier intelligence because a meaningful subset of enterprise buyers will pay for the best model, similar to Apple vs Android; these companies must stay six months ahead to justify their premium, and he believes they can.
OPENAI LONG
Nvidia compute is now financable asset.
Nvidia's $500B financing plan is smart because top asset managers are validating GPU compute as a financable asset; Nvidia can provide residual value guarantees and revenue-sharing above a floor, creating a capital-light royalty-like cloud business while removing the financing constraint on AI buildout.
NVDA LONG
SpaceX has Grok upside and compute floor.
SpaceX has a high-ceiling, high-floor AI strategy: it owns large compute clusters that can be rented to frontier labs at near-spot prices, has the right to take compute back, and xAI/Grok is now competitive with frontier models but underappreciated in most SpaceX investor debates; if Anthropic can be worth trillions, Grok should factor into SpaceX's value.
SPCX LONG
HIGH
02:22
Aug 13
Aug 13
FXI 1ST
U.S. life sciences
RTX 1ST
GD 1ST
predictive markets
▾
HIGH
China's domestic dysfunction makes it fragile
China's largest export is domestic economic dysfunction: Xi refuses to address a popping real estate bubble, a consumer that is flat on its back, and an irrational industrial base. Its auto industry exports more cars while profits fall 20%, and China's overcapacity crushes other countries' manufacturing. Emanuel argues the U.S. should organize an economic bloc to isolate China rather than rely on bilateral win-win trade.
FXI AVOID
U.S. life sciences lead under threat
America's life sciences dominance is a crown jewel built on NIH, NSF, DARPA, national labs, and universities, but budget cuts are unilateral disarmament. China massively invested in life sciences after COVID and is now nipping at U.S. heels, putting U.S. life sciences competitiveness at risk.
U.S. life sciences WATCH
Legacy defense primes stifle innovation
The U.S. defense system can rebuild new technology capacity within five years as long as legacy primes Raytheon and General Dynamics do not suppress it. The implication is that these incumbent defense contractors are obstacles to defense innovation and capacity rebuild.
RTX AVOID
GD AVOID
Levy would hit gaming operators
Emanuel proposes a 10% levy on all predictive markets and online sports gaming, with proceeds directed to NIH, NSF, and DARPA. If adopted, this would be a direct new tax on the sector and a negative catalyst for operators.
predictive markets WATCH
online sports gaming WATCH
HIGH
01:33
Aug 08
Aug 08
All-In Podcast
15d
GOOGL 1ST
SPCX
MSFT
▾
HIGH
Google AI infrastructure play beats model risk.
Google's shift to being a model-agnostic compute infrastructure provider is a superior capital allocation. Returns on AI compute capex are more certain and profitable (high alpha, low beta) than the high-beta, risky model development. Google Cloud, with its massive enterprise base, can host all models and deliver massive profit returns, while model-specialist talent leaving further reinforces this strategic pivot.
GOOGL LONG
SpaceX multi-segment growth justifies huge upside.
SpaceX had a solid quarter with extraordinary guides, featuring multiple powerful growth drivers: AI compute rental at high spot prices, Grock/Cursor AI model revenue potentially hitting $10-20bn, Starlink's expansion boosted by Starship enabling massive bandwidth growth and direct-to-cell, and Elon's proven ability to build physical infrastructure faster than competitors. Despite recent stock pullback, the long-term value creation is massive, and at $1.4T it could triple in 3-4 years.
SPCX LONG
Microsoft AI compute yields high returns.
Microsoft's AI infrastructure business (Azure/token-as-a-service) is generating over 30% return on invested capital, per Morgan Stanley, making it a highly attractive business similar to Google's cloud compute play.
MSFT LONG
HIGH
22:51
Jul 31
Jul 31
All-In Podcast
22d
SOX 1ST
TLT 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI capex real, correction leveraged unwind
With the US 30-year Treasury yield breaking above 5.2%, offering an effective pre-tax return of nearly 10%, high-multiple AI semiconductor stocks (50x earnings) become unattractive on a risk-adjusted basis. This relative value shift creates an incentive for markets to rotate out of AI chip bets and pop the valuation bubble, favoring government bonds.
SOX LONG
High bond yields make overpriced semis unattractive
With the US 30-year Treasury yield breaking above 5.2%, offering an effective pre-tax return of nearly 10%, high-multiple AI semiconductor stocks (50x earnings) become unattractive on a risk-adjusted basis. This relative value shift creates an incentive for markets to rotate out of AI chip bets and pop the valuation bubble, favoring government bonds.
TLT LONG
HIGH
12:49
Jul 29
Jul 29
21:04
Jul 24
Jul 24
All-In Podcast
29d
GOOGL
NYT 1ST
RDDT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Google is the best AI public stock.
Google has delivered a 32% average return on invested capital over 20 years and is methodically investing in AI infrastructure. Its model-agnostic cloud and custom silicon benefit from AI fragmentation and commoditization. Google Cloud has an enterprise data advantage and low-cost infrastructure that will capture value even in worst-case scenarios. The stock's multiple is attractive, and the capex surge is a smart long-term bet.
GOOGL LONG
Training data owners will be big winners.
As AI models rapidly commoditize and open source proliferates, the real value shifts to proprietary training data. Owners of that data, like the New York Times and Reddit, will be able to demand licensing fees and will be the biggest winners in the AI ecosystem.
NYT LONG
RDDT LONG
HIGH
17:14
Jul 21
Jul 21
All-In Podcast
1mo
XLRE 1ST
AAPL 1ST
▾
MED
AI data center overbuild will cause losses.
There is massive overinvestment in AI data center buildout, with companies borrowing billions on top of cash flow and planning for perfection. If AI price-performance improves and power requirements drop, many data centers will become stranded assets, similar to the dark fiber glut after the dot-com bubble. Investors should avoid or short data center infrastructure plays.
XLRE AVOID
Apple Watch AI health data drives upside.
Combining wearables like Apple Watch and Whoop with regular blood tests and AI analytics enables self-directed healthcare that will deliver early health insights. Apple is already running studies on Watch data, and the integration will only get more powerful, making Apple a key beneficiary of the AI-driven health trend.
AAPL LONG
MED
00:54
Jul 18
Jul 18
All-In Podcast
1mo
PYPL 1ST
AAPL
▾
HIGH
PayPal bid price will rise 10-15%
PayPal is being targeted for acquisition at a low market cap; the current offer price is unlikely to be final and the clearing price will be 10-15% higher, possibly attracting a competitive bid from a well-capitalized buyer like Elon Musk.
PYPL LONG
Apple hardware will capture AI value
Apple’s upcoming M7 Ultra chip will support up to 1.5 TB of RAM, enabling local execution of frontier AI models on Mac Studio. This will put downward pressure on costly closed AI models and capture a massive opportunity for Apple, making the stock a screaming buy.
AAPL LONG
HIGH
21:27
Jul 15
Jul 15
All-In Podcast
1mo
TSM
QTUM 1ST
SMH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Taiwan blockade would devastate global chip supply
Taiwan has less than three weeks of energy reserves; a blockade would cause brownouts and fabs would be offline for 90 days, triggering economic damage worse than the Great Depression. China has blockaded the straits seven times in four years, so resilient supply chains are urgently needed.
TSM WATCH
Quantum computing delivers meaningful results by 2030
Multiple quantum computing modalities have proven error correction, and meaningful quantum supremacy results will appear before 2030, enabling solutions to currently unsolvable problems in chemistry, biology, and logistics.
QTUM LONG
AI semiconductor buildout runs for decades
The AI buildout is a multi-decade structural trend, not a short‑lived bubble. Energy capacity constraints naturally cap over‑hyping, and the potential value of tokens is near‑infinite as costs decline by orders of magnitude, driving broader adoption.
SMH LONG
HIGH
00:40
Jul 14
Jul 14
All-In Podcast
1mo
RELX 1ST
TRI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Legacy legal research firms face AI disruption.
Legacy legal research providers like LexisNexis and Westlaw (Thomson Reuters) are being disrupted by AI-native platforms. They cannot pivot quickly, lack the right talent, are too political, and their stocks are already under pressure. The market's earlier assumption that data-heavy incumbents would win is proving wrong.
RELX AVOID
TRI AVOID
HIGH
02:39
Jul 11
Jul 11
All-In Podcast
1mo
ANTHROPIC 1ST
OPENAI 1ST
SPCX
▾
HIGH
Anthropic's $100B+ revenue trajectory makes it a blockbuster IPO.
Anthropic is trending toward over $100B in revenue, far exceeding SpaceX's $35B, with a three-to-five-times revenue growth potential next year. The intelligence TAM is the largest in history, and despite open-source competition, closed frontier labs are winning wallet share. Altimeter would be a buyer at scale in the Anthropic IPO.
ANTHROPIC LONG
OpenAI's $70B revenue and new models set up a $1T+ IPO.
OpenAI's revenue has rebounded to ~$70B, new GPT models and streaming improvements are restoring momentum, and in the context of the huge AI TAM it will likely achieve a $1T+ IPO and compound revenue above 30% for years, making it an attractive IPO investment.
OPENAI LONG
SpaceX will compound revenue over 30% for years.
SpaceX's IPO was textbook, raising $75B at $1.75T, now trading at $2T on $35B forward revenue. There is still 'a lot of meat on the bone' because the company will compound revenue at well over 30% for many years, driven by the unlimited TAM of space and satellite internet, making it a durable compounder even at a multi-trillion market cap.
SPCX LONG
HIGH
01:15
Jul 10
Jul 10
All-In Podcast
1mo
CBRS
▾
HIGH
Cerebras inference chips breaking Moore's Law
Cerebras inference chips are breaking Moore's Law, delivering massively faster reasoning that hyperscalers and AI companies urgently need. Demand is insatiable, the company has a $25 billion backlog, and its new architecture can improve speed far beyond 2x in the next 18 months, giving it a structural advantage over older GPU-based designs.
CBRS LONG
HIGH
23:31
Jul 03
Jul 03
All-In Podcast
1mo
FIG 1ST
California Municipal Bonds
PLTR 1ST
NVDA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Anthropic’s vertical moves crush Figma.
Avoid FIG: podcast thesis says Anthropic's design expansion threatens Figma after a large stock decline, but no explicit short/puts trade is stated.
FIG AVOID
California fiscal crisis threatens bond default.
California is facing a fiscal death spiral: budget ballooning while tax base erodes due to corporate and wealth exodus; 1-1.5% of personal income leaves annually; looming $1.5-2 trillion in unfunded pension/healthcare liabilities; permanent high tax rates accelerate the exodus. This makes default or a bailout crisis likely, rendering California municipal bonds extremely risky.
California Municipal Bonds AVOID
Sovereign AI OS secures enterprise data edge.
Palantir’s partnership with Nvidia to deploy a sovereign AI operating system for US government agencies positions it to capture enterprise demand for AI sovereignty, as customers seek control over their data and avoid handing proprietary knowledge to closed-model providers like Anthropic and OpenAI. This creates a unique competitive moat.
PLTR LONG
Open-source full stack wins AI sovereignty shift.
Nvidia’s open-source Nemotron model is competitive with closed models, and as enterprises shift to sovereign AI using their own hardware, Nvidia benefits from selling full-stack solutions (hardware + open-source models) and a more diverse chip buyer ecosystem, reducing dependency on a few hyperscalers.
NVDA LONG
HIGH
16:48
Jun 29
Jun 29
00:24
Jun 27
Jun 27
All-In Podcast
1mo
ANTHROPIC
CBRS
MU
005930.KS 1ST
000660.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Anthropic could reach $3 trillion valuation.
Anthropic is on track to generate well over $100 billion in revenue this year, will be very profitable at scale with 85% gross margins on inference, and could be worth approximately $3 trillion as a public company. This presents a massive investment opportunity when it completes its IPO.
ANTHROPIC WATCH
Cerebras ramp will surprise to the upside.
Cerebras sold off sharply after breaking its IPO deal price, but the market is ignoring the real ramp timeline. The large OpenAI deal signed in December 2025 will only start showing material revenue after Labor Day because of the 4-month wafer cycle at TSMC, 2-month server assembly, and 1-month energization. If Cerebras can ramp to 50 MW per month, it could exit 2027 at a ~$9B cloud run rate versus a current market cap below $40B, implying significant upside once the delayed revenue materializes.
CBRS LONG
AI memory bottleneck drives supplier profits.
DRAM and HBM memory are the most critical AI bottleneck. Micron’s entire 2026 HBM supply is sold out, and new multi-year supply agreements with large customers feature pricing floors above prior cycle peak gross margins. The three DRAM/HBM makers—Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung—are seeing their business models improve while still trading at cheap valuations relative to the rest of the AI supply chain. DRAM is expected to become 30–40% of hyperscaler capex, keeping the bottleneck tight for years.
MU LONG
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
SpaceX orbital compute will beat terrestrial.
The cost to put a gigawatt of compute into space using reusable Starship will be about $40 billion ($35B silicon + $5B launch), while terrestrial costs are already $60 billion and rising with power/labor inflation. This gives SpaceX’s orbital compute stack a durable cost advantage over terrestrial hyperscalers, making its AI token economics structurally superior once scaled.
SPCX LONG
HIGH
21:13
Jun 23
Jun 23
All-In Podcast
2mo
EBAY
GME 1ST
▾
HIGH
eBay is mismanaged and massively undervalued.
eBay is deeply undervalued due to years of poor execution: revenue and user growth are flat while operating expenses have surged, and management has alienated sellers. Cohen believes he can immediately boost earnings by cutting $2B in costs, then drive growth by fixing eBay Live to become a leader in the $400B live commerce market and by building a marketplace for digital in-game collectibles (skins, weapons) that currently has no liquidity provider. The offer at a premium undervalues this potential, and Cohen is personally committing $500M to the transaction.
EBAY LONG
GameStop's turnaround is real and undervalued.
GameStop has been turned around from a near-bankrupt brick-and-mortar retailer into a profitable collectibles leader with strong financials: collectibles now 42% of revenue, 14% YoY growth, SG&A cut, $9.7B in cash, $333M free cash flow, and a newly authorized share repurchase. Despite the market still dismissing it as a meme stock, the business is fundamentally much stronger and Cohen has never sold a share, signalling deep conviction.
GME LONG
HIGH
22:22
Jun 19
Jun 19
All-In Podcast
2mo
AMZN
SPCX 1ST
GOOGL
MSFT
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hyperscalers become AI gatekeepers, profit handsomely.
Frontier AI labs' mishandling of model releases and government relationships creates a massive opportunity for hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google). The hyperscalers will position themselves as the trusted gatekeepers, wrapping AI provisioning in KYC and audit trails, effectively creating an oligopoly that allows them to charge tolls and justify their massive AI investments.
AMZN LONG
GOOGL LONG
MSFT LONG
SpaceX will grow into its valuation.
SpaceX is a one-of-a-kind company that recently had its highest price-to-sales ratio, and now it will grow into its valuation and continue to expand its valuation over time, making it a compelling long-term holding.
SPCX LONG
Market surges on Iran peace deal.
The Iran peace deal is a positive catalyst that will drive the stock market significantly higher.
SPY LONG
HIGH
05:10
Jun 13
Jun 13
All-In Podcast
2mo
WTI
▾
HIGH
Oil could spike if China draws reserves.
If China runs out of strategic oil reserves and returns to the spot market for an extra 3 million barrels per day, crude oil could surge past $100 and potentially reach $150–200 per barrel. PPI metrics are an alarm to off-ramp the Iran situation before such energy inflation feeds through to consumer prices.
WTI WATCH
HIGH
01:36
Jun 12
Jun 12
All-In Podcast
2mo
GEOD 1ST
TLN 1ST
AKTS 1ST
MGM 1ST
▾
HIGH
Decentralized RTK monopoly with buyback, AI tailwind.
GEODNET is the world's largest and fastest-growing real-time kinematics (RTK) network, providing centimeter-level geolocation. It is built via a decentralized crypto model where individuals deploy base stations for token rewards. With 22,000+ nodes covering 150 countries, it is twice the size of the next three incumbents combined. The network benefits from strong network effects likely to produce a natural monopoly. Revenue is growing >3x year-over-year, recently exceeding $1M annualized run rate. The project uses 80% of revenue to buy GEOD tokens on the open market (currently $8.8M/year), returning capital to token holders. The fully diluted market cap is ~$150M. Customers like John Deere, DJI, and TomTom are ramping spending ~3x from year one to year two. This creates a path to significant token appreciation as the physical AI/robotics tailwind accelerates demand for precision location.
GEOD LONG
Hard asset below replacement cost in power supercycle.
Talen Energy operates 2 GW nuclear and 6 GW natural gas base load power plants in PJM. The company can be bought at an enterprise value of ~$25B vs replacement cost of $45B, offering an immediate double to reach replacement value, and historically such assets sell at a premium to replacement cost at cycle peaks. Power demand is entering a 20-year tight cycle driven by a technological supercycle (AI, electrification, re-industrialization), which turbocharges already tight supply. PJM alone forecasts 106 GW of new power needed in 10 years, but supply chains for critical minerals are constrained, keeping existing capacity highly valuable. Even if Talen does nothing beyond letting its Amazon data center contract roll, it will generate ~$50/share in free cash flow (stock in high $300s, ~7x FCF), implying a double on a 15x infrastructure multiple. If power prices rise or more data center PPAs are signed, it could reach $70/share; adding new build could push to $100+/share.
TLN LONG
Precision radiotherapy platform with pharma interest, China-proof.
Aktis Oncology (AKTS) is a $1B market cap / $500M enterprise value biotech with a miniprotein platform that can carry various radioactive payloads to solid tumors. The approach allows imaging verification of target engagement, de-risking development. Initial programs target validated tumor antigens (Nectin-4 in bladder, B7H3 across major solid tumors). First clinical data expected Q1 2027, near-term catalysts. The radiotherapy modality is hard to genericize, and China cannot easily replicate it due to isotope supply constraints, giving a real moat. Major pharma (Bristol, Novartis, Bayer, Eli Lilly, who backstopped the IPO) are aggressively building radiotherapy pipelines, with $15B in recent M&A. If any program reaches market, the company could be worth $10B ($200/share). Multiple de-risked programs give many 'outs.' Cash runway exceeds 3 years, past key milestones.
AKTS LONG
Japan casino and Dubai optionality double MGM.
MGM Resorts owns 13 Vegas properties plus two hidden assets that the market is undervaluing: a license to open a casino in Osaka, Japan (where the gambling market is larger than Macau and Vegas combined, with Chinese tourists easily accessible, and the asset could be worth ~$50/share), and a property in Dubai with 300,000 sq ft of casino-ready space if gambling is legalized (worth another $40-50/share). Additionally, Barry Diller has been aggressively buying the stock, now owns 26%, and recently bid $48/share, providing a floor. The company has also repurchased half its float in 6 years. With Vegas worth ~$60 and the hidden assets alone, the stock could be a triple from the $48 bid. Even ignoring Dubai, Japan doubles the stock. The catalyst path points to re-rating about 3 years before the Osaka opening, which is approaching.
MGM LONG
HIGH
18:46
Jun 10
Jun 10
All-In Podcast
2mo
Senators John Fetterman and Dave McCormick: Bipartisanship, Money in DC, Datacenters, Graham Platner
X 1ST
LLY 1ST
000880.KS 1ST
▾
MED
US Steel benefits from PA data center boom.
US Steel is building a new next-generation mill in Pennsylvania, a project that is part of the surge in data center and energy infrastructure investment, creating a manufacturing renaissance and increasing steel demand.
X LONG
Eli Lilly expanding in Pennsylvania.
Eli Lilly is building a new plant in Pennsylvania, riding the wave of investment tied to AI and energy growth, signaling expansion and strong regional economic momentum.
LLY LONG
Hanwha shipyard benefits from industrial boom.
Hanwha's Philadelphia shipyard is benefiting from the broader industrial investment wave linked to energy and data center projects, indicating growth in shipbuilding and defense manufacturing.
000880.KS LONG
MED
03:25
Jun 10
Jun 10
All-In Podcast
2mo
SILVER 1ST
COPPER 1ST
DBC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Silver deficits point to imminent stockout.
Silver has a structural deficit of 200 million ounces per year against annual supply of 1 billion ounces, with only 600 million ounces of above-ground inventory remaining. This implies a potential physical stock-out in about three years. Demand is driven by solar photovoltaic cells and other uses.
SILVER LONG
Copper price doubling on supply/demand gap.
Copper faces a massive demand shock from AI data centers (50,000 tons per GW), solar/wind (5-7x copper vs gas), electric vehicles, and military use, while supply growth is minimal and new mines take 7-12 years to build. The world will need as much copper in the next 18 years as was mined in the last 10,000 years. Existing mines are depleting. The speaker expects the copper price to double from current levels.
COPPER LONG
Commodities supercycle early, dollar debasement boosts.
Commodity cycles typically last 15 years with triple-digit percentage upside, and we are only a few years into the current one. Further, massive U.S. fiscal imbalances and dollar debasement will drive investors into hard assets and infrastructure to protect purchasing power, similar to the 1970s.
DBC LONG
HIGH
15:30
Jun 09
Jun 09
All-In Podcast
2mo
GOOGL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Google can crush AI rivals with price cuts.
Google can weaponize its massive capital reserves and cash flow to slash AI token prices by 80%, undercutting competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic, capturing market share, and leveraging its distribution to become the default AI provider, thereby improving its competitive position and long-term profitability.
GOOGL LONG
HIGH
20:06
Jun 08
Jun 08
All-In Podcast
2mo
SNOW
MDB
PANW
ORCL
GOOGL
▾
HIGH
AI needs 10x data storage
AI-driven data explosion will require enterprises to store 10x more data over the next three years, benefiting infrastructure software (databases, data management) that collects, stores, and manages this data. Companies like Snowflake, MongoDB, and Oracle are well-positioned and currently undervalued relative to this tailwind.
SNOW WATCH
MDB WATCH
ORCL WATCH
AI cyber threats boost Palo Alto
The rise of AI enables attackers to find vulnerabilities much faster, forcing enterprises to increase cybersecurity spending. As a leading cybersecurity platform, Palo Alto Networks benefits directly from this trend as defenders race to patch code and protect systems.
PANW WATCH
Google underrated, first $10T
Google is underrated by the market and possesses all the necessary assets (AI models, large sales force, cloud infrastructure, massive data) to become the first $10 trillion company in our lifetime. The conglomerate structure hides its true value.
GOOGL LONG
HIGH
18:26
Jun 07
Jun 07
All-In Podcast
2mo
Sierra 1ST
Arya 1ST
Drivets 1ST
Neuro Robotics
Vast 1ST
▾
HIGH
Sierra is a compelling agent-native CRM.
Sierra (Brett Taylor's company) is building an agent-native CRM platform. Downside risk from OpenAI/Anthropic entering the space, but upside if acquired by a large tech company looking to accelerate agent capabilities. I would buy it in the secondary market.
Sierra LONG
Arya and Drivets lead AI networking reinvention.
Arya and Drivets are reinventing networking for AI data centers as chips become more specialized. They are solving the disaggregation of inference and pre-fill/decode. I've been involved publicly.
Arya LONG
Drivets LONG
Neurorobotics is a quiet European robotics winner.
Neurorobotics in Europe is an AI-powered logistics robotics company with $100M revenue, quietly successful. I like it.
Neuro Robotics LONG
Vast wins in space stations.
Vast is building space stations and will win as SpaceX lowers launch costs. I invested directly.
Vast LONG
Zipline dominates drone delivery economics.
Zipline is reinventing delivery with drones that drop tethers, reducing cost from $15 to $2. They have real-world data and success in Africa. I invested.
Zipline LONG
Revolut disrupts banking with modern stack.
Revolut is a neo bank with a next-gen stack, unbundling incumbents. They have tens of millions of customers and are expanding to the US. I'm considering buying secondaries.
Revolut LONG
HIGH
16:30
Jun 06
Jun 06
All-In Podcast
2mo
CBRS 1ST
PL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Cerebras dedicated silicon superior to GPUs
Cerebras built a fundamentally different AI chip architecture (wafer-scale, large die with memory next to compute) that is 15-18x faster than GPUs for inference. This dedicated silicon approach, unlike GPUs, can capture massive market share as AI workloads expand, making Cerebras a long-term winner in AI compute.
CBRS LONG
Planet Labs data AI growth story
Planet Labs operates the largest fleet of earth imaging satellites, imaging the entire planet daily. AI is reducing barriers to entry and unlocking new applications across agriculture, energy, defense, and civil government. This data-plus-AI combination positions Planet for enormous growth as space and AI converge.
PL LONG
HIGH
19:37
Jun 05
Jun 05
All-In Podcast
2mo
XHB 1ST
NVDA
▾
HIGH
Short homebuilders due to structural impairments
Homebuilders are structurally impaired because they pretend to be asset-light but have massive land commitments, post-COVID inventory hangover, unsustainable pricing, and cost inflation squeezing them. We have been short on things related to that.
XHB SHORT
Nvidia undervalued on earnings over years
Nvidia is undervalued on earnings over the next two to three years. The stock is being used as a safe short by long-short pods but will eventually break out, similar to past patterns with Google and Amazon.
NVDA LONG
HIGH
18:32
Jun 04
Jun 04
All-In Podcast
2mo
SMH 1ST
▾
MED
Semiconductors are in a generational run.
The semiconductor industry is on a generational run, outperforming the broader market since 2024, driven by AI demand, compute requirements, and the need for advanced chips. The sector has shown significant relative strength and is expected to continue benefiting from AI infrastructure buildout.
SMH LONG
MED
12:08
Jun 03
Jun 03
All-In Podcast
2mo
HHH
CRM 1ST
MSFT
META
AMZN
▾
HIGH
Howard Hughes discount to liquidation
Howard Hughes Corporation owns valuable land and real estate assets trading at a discount to liquidation value. Pershing Square is repurposing the company into an insurance-based compounding machine similar to Berkshire Hathaway, using the float to invest in equities and real estate over decades.
HHH LONG
Salesforce vulnerable to AI disruption
Salesforce is at risk from AI disruption because it has been able to charge high prices for niche software products that are now being commoditized or replaced by AI-enabled alternatives. Its monopolistic profit-taking makes it vulnerable.
CRM AVOID
Big tech undervalued amid AI frenzy
Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are high-quality businesses with durable, non-disruptible growth that are being overlooked as investors focus on AI hype in chips and energy. They trade at cheap valuations relative to their long-term cash flow potential and are direct beneficiaries of AI adoption.
MSFT LONG
META LONG
AMZN LONG
PSUS discount to cash value
PSUS is a publicly traded closed-end fund that holds Pershing Square's best ideas, charges only a 2% fee, and trades at an 18% discount to its cash value. As the underlying portfolio compounds, the discount should close and investors benefit from the fee stream.
PSUS LONG
HIGH
15:40
Jun 02
Jun 02
All-In Podcast
2mo
NVDA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nvidia is OpenAI's key chip supplier.
OpenAI CFO states Nvidia is their absolute priority partner, using their latest chips (including Vera Rubin) for training, and compute remains scarce, driving sustained demand for Nvidia's GPUs.
NVDA LONG
HIGH
22:47
May 29
May 29
All-In Podcast
2mo
AAPL FLIP
▾
MED
Apple is dark horse in AI
Apple is positioned as a dark horse in the AI race because its M5 Mac Studio (with large memory) can run open-source models locally, preserving data sovereignty and intelligence sovereignty. This gives Apple a differentiated advantage as users seek privacy and avoidance of centralized AI control.
AAPL LONG
MED
23:24
May 22
May 22
All-In Podcast
3mo
NVDA
SPCX
▾
HIGH
Nvidia is undervalued at low teens PE.
Nvidia's AI revenue is growing faster than hyperscaler capex and Broadcom's AI semi revenue, disproving the share-loss narrative. The company now has a $20B CPU business, domain-specific architectures through co-design with every lab, and a low-teens multiple on real earnings. Asset-backed financing for GPUs at 6% provides a structural advantage. Nvidia is undervalued.
NVDA LONG
SpaceX is cheap at 20x revenue.
SpaceX's Starlink business is scaling to hundreds of millions of subscribers, its AI compute business (Elon Web Services) has already secured a $15B annual deal from Anthropic, and the company builds data centers faster than anyone. At 20x revenue for just terrestrial data centers, the rest of the business (launch, orbital compute, potential Tesla merger) is upside. The 'one more thing' creativity premium and Elon's unique execution capability justify a $2T+ valuation.
SPCX WATCH
HIGH
21:36
May 15
May 15
All-In Podcast
3mo
GOOGL
DBA 1ST
CRM 1ST
AAPL 1ST
NVDA
▾
HIGH
Google Gemini assistant opportunity undervalued.
Google has a real opportunity to own the AI assistant interface by integrating Gemini with its trove of personal and enterprise data (Gmail, Calendar, Drive, Photos). This could become a dominant product in both consumer and enterprise contexts.
GOOGL WATCH
El Niño will spike agricultural prices.
A historically strong El Niño event, with ocean heat energy 500x global annual energy use, will be released into the atmosphere in 2026, causing record heat, crop failures in Brazil, Australia, India, and other regions. This will spike agricultural commodity prices and potentially lead to food crises and economic stress in import-dependent countries.
DBA LONG
Salesforce fundamentally strong with massive buyback.
Salesforce has strong fundamentals with over $46 billion revenue and $16 billion cash flow, is executing a $50 billion buyback, and is leveraging AI for efficiency gains. The market has rerated, but the company is positioned to rebound as the AI hype cycle matures and enterprise software remains essential.
CRM LONG
Apple AI local model play attractive.
Apple has the clearest path to becoming a top AI player by acquiring an AI lab (like Perplexity or Mistral) and leveraging its powerful M-series hardware and privacy focus to run local models. This could make employees significantly more productive and give Apple an edge.
AAPL LONG
Sell chips to let Nvidia win.
The US should sell advanced chips to China to let Nvidia dominate rather than give Huawei room to compete. Nvidia's Blackwell chips and ecosystem give it a lead, and wider proliferation benefits everyone.
NVDA LONG
HIGH
21:17
May 12
May 12
21:00
May 10
May 10
22:46
May 08
May 08
All-In Podcast
3mo
GOOGL
NVDA
MU 1ST
000660.KS
005930.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI compute and memory stocks undervalued
Brad Gerstner argues that AI compute and memory stocks are undervalued relative to the massive AI infrastructure buildout and accelerating revenue growth. He highlights that Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google trade at low multiples (19x, 20x, 24x) and memory makers SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron trade at 5-7x fully taxed GAAP earnings, which is not bubble territory. He has 80% of his portfolio in these names and is heavily long.
GOOGL LONG
NVDA LONG
MU LONG
000660.KS LONG
005930.KS LONG
MSFT LONG
HIGH
22:08
May 01
May 01
All-In Podcast
3mo
MSFT
LLY 1ST
CRWD 1ST
ORCL 1ST
PANW 1ST
▾
HIGH
Power constraints favor hyperscalers.
Power constraints are the key bottleneck in AI, limiting compute for model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. Hyperscalers (Oracle, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Google) have excess capacity and will benefit from the power crunch, gaining leverage over AI model companies.
MSFT LONG
ORCL LONG
GOOG LONG
AMZN LONG
META LONG
Retatrutide is a blockbuster for Lilly.
Retatrutide (Eli Lilly's triple agonist) showed exceptional phase 3 clinical data: significant weight loss, muscle preservation, and metabolic benefits. It is likely to become a blockbuster premium product for Eli Lilly, especially as an upgrade from cheaper GLP-1 drugs.
LLY LONG
AI cyber boom benefits CrowdStrike, PaloAlto.
AI cybersecurity models (Mythos, GPT 5.5 cyber) will automate cyber attacks and defenses, triggering a massive one-time upgrade cycle for cybersecurity. CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks are directly positioned to benefit from this surge in demand for AI-powered cyber defense tools.
CRWD LONG
PANW LONG
HIGH
15:22
Apr 29
Apr 29
22:38
Apr 24
Apr 24
All-In Podcast
4mo
CRM 1ST
▾
HIGH
Salesforce is a bargain at under 10x free cash flow.
Salesforce is trading at less than 10x free cash flow, a historic low, while the company has strong free cash flow, a multi-product platform, and a founder-CEO (Marc Benioff) who has repeatedly adapted to technology shifts (social, mobile, big data, AI). The stock is a bargain given its scale, optionality, and the potential for Benioff to navigate the AI transition.
CRM LONG
HIGH
20:58
Apr 17
Apr 17
All-In Podcast
4mo
OpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, Swalwell Out
BE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bloom Energy benefits from data center power needs.
Data centers are massively compute constrained due to power and land approval issues. Bloom Energy provides an on-site natural gas power solution that allows data centers to get clean air permits quickly, avoiding grid dependency and enabling construction, leading to strong stock performance.
BE LONG
HIGH
22:38
Apr 10
Apr 10
All-In Podcast
4mo
TAO
SPY
IGV 1ST
QQQ
▾
MED
Open source AI via Bit Tensor could capture 90% of token usage.
Open source AI models, particularly those on decentralized networks like Bit Tensor, are rapidly improving and could capture a large share of AI token usage due to their community-driven development and lower costs. Ridges AI, a project on Bit Tensor, achieved 80% of Claude 4's capability in 45 days with only $1M in rewards, showing the potential of decentralized AI to compete with frontier models.
TAO WATCH
Geopolitical peace could drive stock market rally.
The resolution of geopolitical tensions (Iran ceasefire, potential deals in Ukraine, Venezuela, Cuba) could lead to a significant rally in the stock market, as the market has already bounced back from the initial war scare and could go higher if peace is achieved. The market has priced in the worst and now sees a path to de-escalation.
SPY LONG
QQQ LONG
Enterprise software stocks are oversold and offer value.
The sell-off in enterprise software stocks (as evidenced by the IGV index being down 30% year-to-date) may have created buying opportunities because the market is overly pessimistic about the impact of AI on these companies. Some software companies may be unfairly punished and could be value buys, as the market may be throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
IGV LONG
MED
16:09
Apr 08
Apr 08
13:06
Apr 06
Apr 06
All-In Podcast
4mo
XLI
PLTR
▾
Stephens laments the gutting of the American industrial base, noting all family factories (GM, Ford, steel) in Ohio closed, and that Tesla is the only major new-scale manufacturing company started this century. He links national security directly to rebuilding this "muscle." The discussion consistently argues that security is underpinned by economic prosperity and scalable production capacity. The new defense primes (Anduril, SpaceX) are, at core, advanced manufacturing companies. Their success and the government's strategic capital initiatives (e.g., Office of Strategic Capital) could stimulate a broader re-industrialization. WATCH because the thesis posits a multi-decade, policy-driven shift towards onshoring critical production (munitions, drones, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals). This could benefit a wide range of industrial automation, robotics, and specialized manufacturing firms, but the investment landscape beyond the clear prime winners is still forming. Policy reversal; failure to deploy capital effectively; the shift may remain confined to a few government-sponsored champions rather than lifting the broader sector.
XLI WATCH
Long-term.
Sankar frames Palantir's founding mission and current role as providing "decision advantage" (the "third offset") through software that integrates data for counterterrorism and broader security, pushing the "efficient frontier" of privacy and security. In an era of eroding deterrence and complex threats, the U.S. joint force's key advantage is decision-making. Palantir's Foundry platform is critical infrastructure for modern command and logistics (e.g., used in Anduril's Arsenal ops), moving the DoD away from inflexible, platform-centric thinking. LONG because Palantir is the entrenched software brain for the modern military and its industrial partners. Its $400B valuation reflects its foundational role in the "Silicon Valley taking over defense" narrative, and its technology is central to enabling the new manufacturing and operational paradigms discussed. Political/regulatory backlash based on misperceptions of its role ("surveillance state" accusations); competition from new enterprise software entrants.
PLTR LONG
Long-term.
21:49
Apr 03
Apr 03
All-In Podcast
4mo
SPACEX
XLB
BTC 1ST
OPENAI
ANTHROPIC
▾
Chamath ordered the IPO urgency: SpaceX first, then OpenAI and Anthropic must "file quickly, get out and just get the money." He believes trillions in new market cap will cause tech sector P/E multiples to converge downward toward non-tech P/Es. A flood of giant IPOs will compete for finite capital. The first issuers (SpaceX) will be consumed eagerly, but later ones risk poor reception as investor appetite fills and the market digests the AGI/ASI risk to all other software moats. Timing is critical. These three companies have the most urgent need for capital and the strongest stories. Delaying increases the risk of being caught in a capital crunch and a sector-wide multiple compression. The IPO window closes suddenly due to macro events (e.g., Iran war escalation) or a recession. AGI proof points fail to materialize, causing loss of investor faith in the narrative.
SPACEX WATCH
OPENAI WATCH
ANTHROPIC WATCH
Long-term (post-SpaceX IPO).
Friedberg described the moon as having an "extraordinary abundance" of materials like aluminum, silicon, palladium, platinum, and gold. Low gravity and lack of atmosphere allow for cheap shipment of processed materials to Earth via mass drivers. Advances in robotics will enable autonomous mining and manufacturing on the moon within ~20 years. This creates a new, low-cost industrial frontier for high-value minerals currently constrained on Earth. First-mover companies in space logistics (like SpaceX as the "railroads") and eventual lunar resource extraction stand to capture enormous value from this new supply chain. Technological hurdles in robotics and in-situ resource utilization prove more difficult than anticipated. The economic model for lunar mining fails to be cost-competitive with terrestrial alternatives.
XLB WATCH
Long-term (20+ years).
Chamath warned that functional quantum computing is 5-7 years away, capable of breaking current encryption (SHA-256, ECDSA). He called crypto (Bitcoin) the "most obvious honeypot" for a non-state actor to target first. If a quantum attack drains the most visible crypto assets, it could crash confidence and prices industry-wide. The crypto community has successfully migrated encryption before, but the coming technological lift (re-architecting wallets, nodes) is complex and must start now. Until the Bitcoin ecosystem demonstrates a clear, executed path to quantum resistance, it carries a catastrophic, asymmetric risk that is not priced in. Prudent investors should avoid exposure until this mitigation is proven. Quantum computing progress is slower than forecast. The crypto community organizes and executes a timely, seamless transition to quantum-resistant encryption.
BTC AVOID
Long-term (5-7 years).
The Iran war has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, halting 35% of global nitrogen fertilizer (urea) shipments. Prices doubled from ~$350 to >$700/ton. China has halted fertilizer exports, and a key Qatari plant is damaged (3-5 year repair). Fertilizer is a critical, inelastic input for global agriculture. Supply shock leads to unprofitable farming, crop switching, and potential famine (as seen post-Ukraine war). This exposes extreme fragility in concentrated global supply chains. Companies with local, resilient nitrogen fertilizer production capacity (e.g., in the US) or those developing alternative production methods will be strategic assets. The crisis forces a rethink on "luxury beliefs" about exploiting natural gas for critical inputs. A swift end to the war and reopening of the Strait. Rapid diplomatic resolution with China to restart exports.
DBA WATCH
Medium-term (next 6-18 months).
Chamath stated "99.999%" probability Tesla and SpaceX will merge. The SpaceX IPO provides a validated mark-to-market valuation, which simplifies governance and minimizes "shareholder noise" and litigation risk for Elon Musk. A merger would combine brain trusts, cross-pollinate advanced materials and manufacturing knowledge, and consolidate overlapping projects (AI, robotics, terafabs), creating a dominant vertically integrated industrial and technology conglomerate. The synergy and defensive rationalization (governance, litigation) make the combined entity fundamentally stronger. The market currently values them separately; a merger is seen as a value-unlocking event. Regulatory rejection of a merger between two of the world's largest companies. Shareholder dissent from either side.
TSLA LONG
Long-term (post-SpaceX IPO).
20:21
Mar 27
Mar 27
All-In Podcast
4mo
WDAY 1ST
SNOW 1ST
META
NOW 1ST
MSFT
▾
Chamath presents chart showing SaaS companies like Snowflake had high valuation multiples (e.g., ~100 years to repay via free cash flow in 2023) that are now compressing sharply. AI disruption threatens the durability of cash flows, leading markets to rerate these companies based on perceived fragility in a world of potential superintelligence. Avoid due to valuation reset and increased discount rates applied to future cash flows. If AI disruption is slower or less severe than expected, cash flows may remain durable.
WDAY AVOID
SNOW AVOID
NOW AVOID
medium-term
Meta lost two major lawsuits in one week with large damages ($375M for child exploitation, millions for addictive design), and tort lawyers are targeting social media companies. These verdicts circumvent Section 230 protections via product liability claims, potentially opening floodgates for more litigation and significant financial liability. Avoid due to elevated legal and regulatory risks that could impact financials and operations. Effective age-gating or parental control implementations that mitigate harm and reduce liability.
META WATCH
long-term
Chamath notes that mega-cap tech companies (Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet) have seen valuation multiples increase while SaaS multiples compress, indicating market perception of monopolistically durable cash flows. In an AI-disruptive world, markets are flighting to quality and perceived durable cash flows from strong moats (brands, network effects, ecosystems). Long due to relative safety and sustained cash flow durability amid uncertainty. Disruption from AI agents or regulatory changes that erode moats.
MSFT LONG
GOOG LONG
AAPL LONG
long-term
01:13
Mar 26
Mar 26
18:11
Mar 23
Mar 23
All-In Podcast
5mo
NVDA 1ST
IREN 1ST
▾
The CoreWeave CEO states that GPU depreciation fears ("obsolete in 16 months") are "nonsense" pushed by short sellers. He notes A100 prices have appreciated, customer contracts are for 5+ years, and his company uses a 6-year depreciation schedule. He asserts NVIDIA's latest architectures (H100, H200, GB200) are brought to scale first by CoreWeave and have very long useful lives in inference and other workloads. The narrative of rapid obsolescence contradicts the commercial reality of long-term contracts and the emergence of new companies/use cases for older chips. If demand is structural and multi-year, and NVIDIA maintains its architecture leadership, its hardware retains value and drives recurring revenue. LONG because the core bear thesis on inventory depreciation is directly challenged by a major infrastructure customer's on-the-ground data. Sustained demand across the hardware stack (bleeding-edge to legacy) supports NVIDIA's financial model and ecosystem dominance. A genuine, rapid technological breakthrough that makes current GPU architectures obsolete faster than the 5-6 year cycle, or a collapse in AI application demand.
NVDA LONG
Medium-term to long-term (2-5 years).
The IREN CEO states the company cannot meet current AI compute demand, with its $9.7B Microsoft contract representing only 5% of its capacity. He emphasizes their 8-year lead in securing land and power (4.5 GW) as a "huge" scaling advantage, with the constraint being "time to compute" (construction speed), not power. In a market constrained by power and data center build-out speed, a company with a multi-gigawatt pipeline of secured, renewable-energy-connected sites holds a formidable moat. This asset base allows it to capture a disproportionate share of the exploding demand described by all speakers. LONG because the company possesses the critical, scarce real assets (power, land, grid connections) needed to scale AI infrastructure. Their early mover advantage in site development is difficult to replicate quickly and positions them as a key bottleneck supplier. Execution risk in building out data centers at the required pace, or a sudden, sharp downturn in demand for AI compute that leads to overcapacity.
IREN LONG
Medium-term (1-3 years).
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