OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 01, 2026 at 22:08  |  1:20:57  |  All-In Podcast
Speakers
Chamath Palihapitiya — CEO, Social Capital
David Sacks — General Partner, Craft Ventures
David Friedberg — CEO, The Production Board

Summary

The podcast covers OpenAI missing user and revenue targets amid a competitive AI landscape, with a contrarian view that its product improvements and compute advantage may still win. Hyperscalers report massive capex and cloud growth, while AI cybersecurity models like Mythos and GPT 5.5 cyber signal a major upgrade cycle for firms like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks. The panel also discusses Eli Lilly's Retatrutide peptide as a potential wonder drug, plus the Elon vs. Sam trial and a vibe coding disaster.

  • OpenAI missed user and revenue targets, but product releases like GPT 5.5 are well-received.
  • Power and compute constraints are the key bottleneck, benefiting hyperscalers with spare capacity.
  • Hyperscaler capex guidance exceeded $725B for 2026, driving massive infrastructure buildout.
  • Google's Gemini and cloud growth have been strong, taking share from OpenAI in consumer AI.
  • AI cybersecurity models (Mythos, GPT 5.5 cyber) are expected to spark a major upgrade cycle for cyber defense firms.
  • CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks are positioned to benefit from the AI cyber boom.
  • Eli Lilly's Retatrutide showed impressive phase 3 results, positioning it as a potential blockbuster premium drug.
  • The episode also covers the Elon vs. Sam Altman trial, the vibecoding database deletion incident, and a visit to the Supreme Court.
Trade Ideas
Chamath Palihapitiya CEO, Social Capital 10:44
Power constraints favor hyperscalers.
Power constraints are the key bottleneck in AI, limiting compute for model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. Hyperscalers (Oracle, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Google) have excess capacity and will benefit from the power crunch, gaining leverage over AI model companies.
ORCL AMZN META MSFT GOOG HIGH
David Sacks General Partner, Craft Ventures 22:02
AI cyber boom benefits CrowdStrike, PaloAlto.
AI cybersecurity models (Mythos, GPT 5.5 cyber) will automate cyber attacks and defenses, triggering a massive one-time upgrade cycle for cybersecurity. CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks are directly positioned to benefit from this surge in demand for AI-powered cyber defense tools.
CRWD PANW HIGH
David Friedberg CEO, The Production Board 58:33
Retatrutide is a blockbuster for Lilly.
Retatrutide (Eli Lilly's triple agonist) showed exceptional phase 3 clinical data: significant weight loss, muscle preservation, and metabolic benefits. It is likely to become a blockbuster premium product for Eli Lilly, especially as an upgrade from cheaper GLP-1 drugs.
LLY HIGH
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This All-In Podcast video, published May 01, 2026, features Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, David Friedberg discussing ORCL, AMZN, META, MSFT, GOOG, CRWD, PANW, LLY. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, David Friedberg  · Tickers: ORCL, AMZN, META, MSFT, GOOG, CRWD, PANW, LLY