Daily Alpha · X
· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Jukan relayed a veteran investor's case that memory is not cheap at a P/E of 3, The Valueist detailed Micron's Fab 11E pause, and Qualcomm guided $650M of December data-center revenue.
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FinancialJuice reported Microsoft's tighter oversight of Nebius, IREN and Nscale, and LiveSquawk put CoreWeave's five-year CDS at a record 1,164.52 bp.
Index selloff
FirstSquawk reported the Nasdaq 100 down more than 6% and the S&P 500 down 3.7%; Kobeissi Letter put the VIX up over 70% on the day.
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Market Radar →A veteran investor told Jukan memory stocks are not cheap even at a P/E of 3
The investor argues memory LTAs at best get customers to shoulder part of makers' capex, and that customers broke LTAs whenever prices fell more than 60% from the peak, so uncertain 2028 operating profit makes a higher valuation hard to justify.
Today I met with a veteran investor who argued that memory stocks are not cheap even at a P/E of
It challenges the view that a certain 2027 shortage makes memory cheap.
Watch Whether customers forfeit prepayments and walk away from LTAs if memory prices fall.
Source →CNBC reports that Chinese AI model developer Kimi is looking to rent Nvidia Blackwell GPUs from a European cloud provider.
Kimi is interested in using the chips for both inference and training. Kimi reportedly offered to pay 30% to 50% more upfront than buyers outside China.
CNBC reports that Chinese AI model developer Kimi is looking to rent Nvidia Blackwell GPUs from a European cloud provider.Source →
$MU MICRON PAUSES ITS NEW TAIWAN FAB.
THE SUPPLY READ IS THE STORY. Micron has suspended construction of Fab 11E in Taoyuan, Taiwan, after a protracted labor dispute. The plant carried a $3B to $4.5B budget, was scheduled to come online in 2028, and was slated to make high-bandwidth memory and DRAM. WHAT IT IS NOT • Not a production disruption. Existing Taiwan operations continue as normal, and Taiwan accounts for 60% of Micron's global DRAM output. • The October agreement with the larger of its two unions may be challenged by the smaller Taoyuan union, which is demanding that 15% of operating profit be distributed to employees, plus all-cash incentives, modeled on what Samsung and SK Hynix already adopted. • Suspending construction is also negotiating leverage: it is the loudest signal Micron can send a union trying to annul a signed deal. THE SUPPLY READ • A 2028 fab slips out of the supply stack. Against 2027 bit supply…
$MU MICRON PAUSES ITS NEW TAIWAN FAB. THE SUPPLY READ IS THE STORY.Source →
Rheinmetall fell as much as 16% on a guidance cut while its backlog hit a record €78.0B
FY26 sales are now about €13.2B versus €13.7-14.2B; Koss blames delivery, citing Germany's Arminius vehicle order slipping to 2027 and artillery ammunition stuck in lot acceptance tests.
$RHM down as much as 16% today on a guidance cut.
Air-defence sales rose 63% with new orders up fivefold, which Koss reads as demand holding up.
Watch Timing of the Arminius vehicle order.
Source →Qualcomm guided $650M of December-quarter data-center revenue as custom chips ship to two hyperscalers
September-quarter revenue was $10.3B, down 8.1% year on year, with semis revenue down 8% as Apple ramps down; Qualcomm sees a $7B annualised data-center run-rate exiting FY27, mostly from custom AI accelerators for two hyperscalers including AWS.
Qualcomm QSep26 - Revenue up 5.5% q/q and down -8.1% y/y to $10.3B;
Data center dilutes QCT gross margin by 3 points in the December quarter but is accretive at the operating-margin level.
Watch The December-quarter QCT guide of $9.0B-$9.6B at 20-22% EBT.
Source →