Daily Alpha · Substack
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Substack writers converged on the rates regime: QTR flagged yield highs with rare breadth divergence, Campbell Ramble said credit will time the AI capex cycle, and Gaetano tied BlackSky to Robinhood's agent apps.
Themes on this desk
Rates and breadth
QTR says the 10-year at 5.33% and 30-year near 5.67% are the worst quarter this century, with breadth precedents only 1972, 2000 and 2023.
AI capex credit
Campbell Ramble argues credit, not bonds, will mark the end of the AI capex cycle and discloses adding long-duration TIPS.
Physical AI data
Gaetano says BlackSky will power Robinhood's new satellite-imagery agent app and SkyFi is launching an AI buildout monitor.
QTR: breadth extremes match only 1972, 2000 and 2023 precedents
The author cites a breadth database showing just 21% of S&P 500 constituents above their 50-day moving averages, 31% above their 100-day and 40% above their 200-day averages with SPY only about 2% below its high; extending the data back to 1927 via CRSP industry portfolios, only three previous matches occurred: September 1972, March 2000 and May 2023.
Historical analogs cluster around major market tops, giving a concrete, quantified basis for treating current index-level calm as fragile rather than benign.
Watch Whether breadth measures recover above prior thresholds or deteriorate further while the index stays near highs.
Source →Campbell Ramble: watch credit, not bonds, to time the end of the AI capex cycle
The author argues that while investors should watch bonds, the better timing signal for the end of the current AI investment cycle is credit markets, because the capex underneath the boom must eventually be paid back and credit investors enforce repayment. He also discloses adding long-duration inflation-linked bonds (LTPZ) back into his beta portfolio as diversification.
Frames credit spreads as the leading indicator for when AI-infrastructure financing stress turns into an equity-cycle break, and discloses a specific inflation-linked duration position as the author's hedge.
Watch Confirmation would be widening high-yield/IG credit spreads alongside AI-capex financing headlines; invalidation would be credit spreads staying tight while the buildout continues.
Source →BlackSky named first satellite imagery provider for Robinhood Agent Apps via SkyFi
Robinhood is rolling out Agent Apps that let its AI agent connect to specialized outside data sources while researching a stock; one such app comes from SkyFi, a platform aggregating commercial satellite imagery, and BlackSky will be the first satellite imagery provider powering the product.
A consumer brokerage distribution channel would be a new commercial revenue vector for BKSY beyond defense/government, potentially improving satellite utilization and monetization of existing on-orbit assets.
Watch Confirmation would be an official Robinhood/SkyFi/BKSY announcement or disclosed commercial revenue contribution; invalidation would be the integration not launching or BKSY not being the imagery source.
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