Daily Alpha · Substack
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
The strongest public material challenged AI job-loss assumptions, highlighted China's industrial chokepoints and recorded several portfolio exits.
Themes on this desk
AI labor complement
Indeed wage data cited by Noahpinion show faster wage gains in AI-exposed roles, indicating complementarity rather than broad displacement so far.
China's industrial constraint
China's influence sits in low-margin mineral refining chokepoints while slower loan growth threatens its investment-led model.
Portfolio exits
Public previews disclosed a PLS stop-out, an imminent PDN stop and the removal of COH without publishing the underlying levels or rationale.
Noahpinion: AI-exposed jobs are seeing faster wage growth, not displacement
Citing Indeed wage data, the roundup notes workers in AI-exposed jobs have seen wages rise much faster than workers in less-exposed jobs, because AI exposure means a job contains tasks AI could do and booming AI demand raises demand for those roles.
Faster wage growth in AI-exposed occupations indicates AI is currently complementing rather than substituting labor in most roles, supporting continued services inflation pressure and demand for AI-skilled labor.
Watch Confirmation would be continued outperformance of AI-exposed job wages in Indeed data; invalidation would be AI-exposed wage growth converging down to less-exposed jobs.
Source →Noahpinion: China controls mineral refining chokepoints, not mining
Citing Alexander Campbell's charts, the roundup argues roles have reversed since WWII: China refines most key minerals for the Electric Tech stack rather than mining them, because refining is dirty, capital-intensive, and low-margin, leaving China in control of key industrial chokepoints; the Trump administration is launching partnerships, industrial policy, and scrap metal conservation but much more is needed.
Critical-minerals refining chokepoints are a structural supply risk for the electric-tech and defense supply chains, supporting policy-driven investment in non-China refining capacity and a strategic premium on refined-material supply.
Watch Confirmation would be new Western refining capacity announcements or Chinese export controls on refined minerals; invalidation would be China losing refining share without policy intervention.
Source →Noahpinion: rent inflation has cooled back to pre-pandemic trend on apartment supply
The roundup cites Apartment List data showing rent since 2022 has stabilized and fallen back to its pre-pandemic trend, with rent now more affordable relative to average hourly earnings than in the late 2010s, attributing this to building more apartments than at any time since the 1980s and noting rents fell most in cities that built the most.
Cooling rent removes a key sticky component of CPI, easing pressure on the Fed and weighing on shelter-driven inflation hedges, while validating supply-expansion (YIMBY) as the mechanism.
Watch Confirmation would be continued rent declines or flat rents in high-supply metros and softer shelter CPI; invalidation would be a reacceleration in rents as completions slow.
Source →Noahpinion: China's credit-driven growth model is stalling as loan growth decelerates
The roundup argues China's investment is falling even in manufacturing and loan growth has decelerated to about 4.9%, near total GDP growth, meaning the economy is no longer flooded with bank loans; since bank loans finance factory capex, a lending slowdown implies an investment slowdown and slower growth unless AI delivers a major productivity boom, with Rhodium's Logan Wright calling the financial system fundamentally broken and risking Japan-style sclerosis.
A structurally slowing, credit-constrained China is deflationary for global goods prices and commodity demand while raising the risk of zombie companies and export dumping, a persistent deflationary overhang for global industrials and materials.
Watch Confirmation would be further declines in Chinese loan growth, manufacturing investment, and PPI; invalidation would be renewed credit expansion or a policy-driven reacceleration in investment.
Source →Rooster culling COH from the SUMO portfolio
The title indicates the author is removing COH from SUMO; the item is a public preview with no body, so no reason, size, or replacement is disclosed.
A named exit from a portfolio is a concrete positioning change and implies the author's thesis on COH no longer justifies holding it within that book.
Watch Confirmation would be COH underperforming after the cull; invalidation would be COH rallying strongly, suggesting the exit was poorly timed.
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