Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Who was talking 71 videos · 14 channels
Higher neutral rate
1 video · 59mKashkari paired a 3.25% neutral-rate estimate with one more hike this year and another in 2027.
Kashkari raised neutral rate estimate to 3.25%
Kashkari said he has slowly revised up his estimate of the neutral federal funds rate and in September revised it to 3.25%, while noting the neutral rate may be temporarily elevated even relative to that.
Debt-funded AI capex
1 video · 44mOdd Lots linked negative hyperscaler free cash flow to increasingly creative financing and singled out Oracle as the clearest credit risk.
Odd Lots: AI capex is increasingly debt-financed, with hyperscalers negative FCF and financing getting more creative
Kawa says when hyperscalers went negative free cash flow there were two choices: the AI boom slows or financing gets more creative, and financing has gotten more creative. He notes more of the capex is debt-financed alongside a big fiscal deficit, and that hyperscaler debt and fiscal debt are treated as safe sources of profit 'until it isn't' — a classic Minsky setup.
Divergence risk: labs have tens of gigawatts contracted, so flat revenue would wreck the ratio
Hosts flag that the energy-to-revenue match is a snapshot with two ways to diverge: labs have tens of gigawatts contracted over the next few years, and if revenue does not rise, adding ten times the energy on flat revenue would drive the ratio down sharply.
US diesel export ban would cut US prices ~25c/gal/week but spike global diesel
Johnston estimates a blanket US diesel export ban would push the ~1 million b/d of surplus Gulf Coast diesel into inventories, cutting US Gulf Coast diesel prices by roughly 25 cents a gallon per week (about $1.50/gal over six weeks), while exploding global diesel prices since the US is one of the last suppliers. He notes the ban would destroy refining incentives, cut runs, and eventually lift prices across all products, so it can only last a month or two before breaking things.
Wedbush's Bryson: Micron guidance in line with buy-side, gross-margin dip not negative if HBM mix
Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson said Micron's forward EPS guidance of north of $38 was roughly in line with buy-side expectations of $36-$40, and that a slight downtick in anticipated gross margin would not be negative if tied to shipping more high-bandwidth memory for AI; his price checks show memory pricing still moving up, just at a slower pace.