Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
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Rates and fiscal risk
1 video · 3mIra Jersey sees 5.5% next; Rosenberg says long yields are 90% real-rate regime, not inflation expectations, and midterm gridlock historically lowers yields.
10-year Treasury breaks multi-decade technical level, next stop 5.5%
Ira Jersey of Bloomberg Intelligence says the 5.32% level on the 10-year yield is an old technical high from roughly two decades ago, and a break above it points to 5.5% 'pretty easily.' He sees nothing obvious to stop the climb until data turn.
AI memory
1 video · 4mMicron says demand exceeds supply and SCAs extend into 2031; CFRA sees rerating but the stock fell despite 86% margins.
Micron says memory demand exceeds supply, strategic agreements extended into 2031
Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said customers are adding upside demand and that Micron 'cannot fulfill the demand of our customers,' with strategic customer agreements extended into the 2031 timeframe, giving 'tremendous visibility, certainty of demand.'
AI credit
1 video · 1h 22mEd Zitron argues data-center SPVs rely on private credit that may not be repaid and that hyperscaler capex is increasingly debt-funded.
Private credit is the funding backstop for data-center SPVs and may not be repaid
Zitron argues data-center SPV creditors may not get paid even where the sponsoring customer is not liable, and that private credit — especially Blue Owl, which he says is in nearly every Oracle Stargate data center — is not collateralized well enough to absorb losses.
Domestic manufacturing could cut TPB's can cost from ~$1.40 to ~$0.65
Baxter estimates TPB currently pays about $1.40 per can including India production, air freight of 20-25 cents and a 16% tariff, and that domestic production could lower this to about $0.65 or less, adding an incremental $90-100M EBITDA at projected run rates.
Morgan Stanley base case: tokenized real-world assets grow from ~$40B to ~$2.3T by 2030
Michael Cyprys states Morgan Stanley's base case has tokenized real-world assets (tokenized stocks, bonds, funds) growing from roughly $40 billion today to about $2.3 trillion by 2030, with the vast majority tied to collateral mobility and reserve/treasury management use cases rather than private markets.