Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Who was talking 55 videos · 15 channels
Fed path
1 video · 35mA unanimous hike with 16 of 18 officials seeing another increase; Wang reads removing a dose of accommodation as implying at least two more hikes, while Bullard expects one more, most likely in December, and says three more sounds high.
Wang: Fed's 'removing accommodation' language implies at least two more hikes
Wang argues Warsh's characterization of the hike as 'removing a dose of accommodation' means the committee still views policy as accommodative, so at least two more hikes are likely to reach a restrictive stance, with the unanimous vote and no member seeing restrictive conditions reinforcing that read.
Chip supply constraints
1 video · 44mArm's CEO says wafers, substrates, testers and memory are constrained for several years with demand off the charts; SK Hynix says it is exploring options after a report it could team with Intel on US semiconductor manufacturing.
Arm CEO says chip supply chain constraints persist for years, not just wafers
Rene Haas says demand is 'off the charts' and the big constraint is supply, spanning wafers for logic chips plus substrates, testers, and memory across the entire supply chain, creating complex constraints for the next several years; he also says confidence in the $2B target rose from May to July and again by September.
Oil and distillate
2 videos · 50mRecord diesel is passing into freight and grocery costs and Russia's diesel export ban tightens product supply, while Saudi Arabia aims to restore half of the East-West pipeline within days and full capacity within about six weeks.
Diesel at record $6.40 a gallon is already passing through to consumer prices
Smith said diesel at $6.40 a gallon is already working through the system because over 90% of US groceries move on 18-wheelers, with agriculture, construction and manufacturing affected, and grocery store prices already rising as the cost is passed through.
Saudi East-West pipeline restoration targets half capacity in days, full in ~6 weeks
Bloomberg reports Saudi Arabia aims to restore half the capacity of its damaged East-West crude pipeline within days and full capacity in about six weeks, working around the damaged pumping station at lower pressure; the pipeline is ~1,200 km with about a dozen pumping stations, and Saudi Arabia has the engineering capability to do it fast. Oil is holding a steep drop on the news, signaling Middle East supply disruptions could ease.
AI labs need ~$180B collective run-rate by year-end to keep trade intact
Gerstner estimates the top three labs (Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX) are at roughly $100B collective run-rate and need at least $180B by year-end, adding ~$80B, just to keep the AI trade intact. He calls monthly lab revenue the single most important data point in the market.