Daily Alpha · Substack
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
The strongest item modeled Ciena's FY2029 targets of about $14bn of revenue, roughly 50% gross margin and $26-29 adjusted EPS, while a macro note read the FOMC as hawkish.
Themes on this desk
Ciena multi-year framework
Management targets roughly 30% compound annual revenue growth from FY2026 through FY2029, implying about $14bn of revenue at roughly 50% adjusted gross margin and 32-35% adjusted operating margin.
Post-FOMC macro read
Fidenza Macro calls the dots, Warsh's press conference and the market reaction hawkish as can be, while the post is headlined cautiously bullish.
Ciena management extends ~30% revenue CAGR target through FY2029
Ciena management is now targeting roughly 30% compound annual revenue growth from FY2026 through FY2029, implying around $14B in annual revenue by FY2029, alongside approximately 50% adjusted gross margins and 32–35% adjusted operating margins.
A multi-year growth runway of this magnitude, if delivered, would materially raise Ciena's earnings base and could support a higher valuation multiple than the market currently assigns.
Watch Whether Ciena reports FY2027 revenue growth of at least 30% and confirms progress toward the FY2029 revenue and margin targets.
Source →FOMC outcome described as hawkish with Fed hiking 25 bp
The author characterizes last night's FOMC dots, Warsh's press conference, and the market's reaction as hawkish as can be, noting the Fed hiked by 25 bp as expected.
A hawkish Fed path raises discount rates and pressures rate-sensitive assets, shaping the risk backdrop for equity and commodity positioning.
Watch Whether subsequent Fed communications and data confirm or soften the hawkish reaction priced into rates.
Source →