Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Who was talking 64 videos · 17 channels
Energy inflation
1 video · 4mSaudi output near 1990 lows, diesel and gasoline pass-through, and PPI understating the oil move dominate the inflation debate.
August PPI data understates the oil and diesel surge because it only captures prices through August 11
McKee relays Inflation Insights' Omar Sharif noting the August PPI only includes data through August 11, so the big rise in oil and diesel prices is not reflected; diesel fuel prices jumped 24% in the captured period and truck transportation freight rose 2%, showing energy pass-through spreading into services and goods.
AI compute and power
1 video · 1h 19mOracle-adjacent compute scarcity, AI data-center debt concentration, token-cost deflation and on-prem economics were recurring themes.
AI data-center debt dwarfs subprime peak with only two customers
Barrie cites Ed Zitron's framing that hyperscaler data-center SPVs resemble CDOs/subprime, noting 1.65 trillion of debt loaded in five years versus subprime's 1.3 trillion peak in 2007, while the AI buildout effectively has two customers, OpenAI and Anthropic.
Rates and Fed
1 video · 4mPanelists priced higher odds of a Fed hike; Siegel expected a hike then recovery, while Reid argued one hike would not be enough.
Jeremy Siegel: Fed likely to hike next week, initial equity selloff then recovery
Siegel says he expects Kevin Warsh's Fed to bite the bullet and raise rates next week, with 10-year yields moving toward 5% and futures signaling a hike; he expects an initial stock selloff followed by a recovery if the long bond rallies on restored Fed credibility, and sees 25-50bp of tightening as not the end of the world.
Foreign investors sold over 5 trillion won, capping KOSPI near 7,200
Yu Young-hwa says foreign investors sold about 2.4 trillion won in KOSPI cash and roughly 2 trillion won in futures on the day, over 4 trillion won total and more than 5 trillion won including KOSDAQ, unwinding the ~5 trillion won they had bought since the prior Wednesday.