Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
The tape was defined by an oil-and-diesel supply shock, a hawkish rates repricing, and Oracle's blockbuster backlog; gold and refiners were the clearest disagreement points.
Themes on this desk
Oil and geopolitics
Brent above $102, Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb, Saudi output at 1990 lows and diesel above $5 reinforce the supply-shock read.
Rates and Fed
PPI at 5.4%, 30-year at 5.34%, roughly 70% September hike odds and Druckenmiller's 'borrowing costs still low' define the hawkish repricing.
AI infrastructure
Oracle's $664B RPO and $90-95B capex, OpenAI's compute pause, Goldman's optics TAM doubling and memory and optics read-throughs dominated.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Bull case: Oracle as a viable neocloud after GPT-6 Astra
bubbleboi argues Oracle beat handily, expects the stock to drift higher coming off GPT-6 Astra, and calls Oracle a potentially viable neocloud, dismissing terrible channel checks as an artifact of Ellison extending supplier credit aggressively.
Oracle might be a viable neocloud, all the channel checks were terrible but I just think it’s cause Larry Ellison
This is a fresh long thesis that explicitly overrides negative channel-check evidence, framing Oracle as an AI compute provider rather than legacy software.
Watch Whether channel checks improve next quarter and whether Oracle's supplier-credit terms become a disclosed risk.
Source →Burggraben: long-term gold bull but avoids gold short term on energy-driven inflation
Burggraben says the fundamental setup is unchanged from March/April, remains long-term bullish, but does not like gold here over months because higher oil, diesel and inflation imply higher US rates, making US gold ETFs marginal sellers; he also flags weaker EM FX forcing reserve sales and India's gold import duty hike from 6% to 15%.
I am long term bullish but don’t like gold here short term (months) due to higher energy prices.
This is a specific, falsifiable tactical bearish call on gold from a self-described long-term bull, with named transmission channels (energy costs, ETF flows, EM reserve selling, Indian policy) that differ from the consensus inflation-hedge narrative.
Watch Confirmation if gold stalls or falls over the next several months while oil and US yields rise; invalidation if gold makes new highs despite higher energy prices and rates.
Source →Refiner margin normalization is the key 2027 debate
The note argues the street's 2027 EPS step-downs of 16-30% across VLO, MPC, PSX and DK are predicated on margin normalization; if deferred ULSD cracks stay structurally elevated, estimates move up and forward multiples compress, a double-positive, with DK the most torque at the cheapest valuation and VLO the best crack-capture/balance-sheet combination.
The key trade is that the street's 2027 EPS step-downs (16–30%) are predicated on normalization — if that normalization doesn't
This is the explicit, falsifiable trade thesis linking the distillate squeeze to a positive earnings revision cycle in independent refiners, with a stated ranking of crack leverage (DK > VLO > MPC > PSX).
Watch Whether the back end of the ULSD curve re-prices higher and 2027 consensus EPS step-downs are revised up, especially for DK and VLO.
Source →Brent above $102 as US-Iran conflict seen lasting through 2029
Reports cited by @DeItaone say Iran and the US are preparing for a protracted conflict with no imminent ceasefire, Tehran has rebuilt missile capabilities, and White House advisers warned Trump the war could last through 2029; Brent traded above $102 with attacks around Hormuz and Houthi advances near Red Sea routes intensifying supply risk.
Brent crude traded above $102, as renewed attacks around Hormuz and Houthi advances near key Red Sea shipping routes intensify
A multi-year conflict horizon implies a persistent geopolitical risk premium in crude rather than a transient spike, supporting energy equities and inflation-linked assets while pressuring rate-sensitive sectors.
Watch Whether Brent holds above $100 and whether any credible ceasefire or Hormuz de-escalation headline appears; a sustained break below $100 would falsify the persistent-premium thesis.
Source →Fed funds futures price 70% odds of a September hike
Timiraos notes Fed-funds futures shifted to a 70% chance of a September hike as traders do the math on firm inflation inputs.
August core PCE. Fed-funds futures have already shifted to 70% chance of a Sept hike this morning as they do
A near-coin-flip-plus hike probability reprices the front end and pressures duration-sensitive equities and rate-sensitive sectors.
Watch Whether the implied September hike probability holds above 70% into the CPI release and FOMC meeting.
Source →