Bloomberg Surveillance 8/26/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 26, 2026 at 15:05  |  2:24:20  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Marvin Loh — Global Senior Macro Strategist, State Street
Jonathan Ferro — Anchor, Bloomberg Television
Sarah Kunst — Cleo Capital Founder
Andrew Balls — CIO, PIMCO
Dan Skelly — Head of Market Research, Morgan Stanley E*TRADE
Tobin Marcus — Wolfe Research
Conrad DeQuadros — Head of Economics, Citi Wealth
Tracie McMillion — Chief Investment Officer, Wells Fargo
Jay Goldberg — CEO, Seaport Global
Stephanie Roth — Chief Economist, Wolfe Research
Mark Lehmann — Global Head, Public Affairs, Citadel
Wayne Sanders — Senior Defense Research Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Mark Ein — CEO, Capitol Investment Corp.
Michael McKee — International Economics & Policy Correspondent, Bloomberg
Yahaira Jacquez — Reuters Video Journalist

Summary

Bloomberg Surveillance covers pre-market positioning ahead of Nvidia earnings and PCE inflation, with guests debating Fed rate-hike risks, Treasury intervention, oil geopolitics, AI financing, and Nvidia's competitive outlook. Key views include cautious Nvidia calls from Sarah Kunst and Jay Goldberg against more constructive Nvidia takes, PIMCO seeing long-term bonds as attractive, and Wells Fargo favoring equities over fixed income. The Fed's credibility and path under Kevin Warsh are central, with several guests expecting tighter policy or higher front-end yields.

  • Nvidia earnings are seen as a test of the AI trade, with debate over deceleration, competition, and financing.
  • Fed officials and guests focus on persistent inflation, credibility, and a possible rate hike before year end.
  • Oil prices dip on Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz talks, helping calm long-end bonds.
  • PIMCO says long-term bond yields finally compensate for risk but is cautious on US IG tech credit.
  • Wells Fargo remains overweight equities, IT, communication services, and materials on strong earnings.
  • Treasury buyback program is criticized as too small to meaningfully cap yields.
  • Core PCE comes at 0.2% month-over-month with stronger income and spending, keeping the Fed debate live.
Ideas
Marvin Loh Global Senior Macro Strategist, State Street 8:02
Fed will tighten before year end.
Persistent above-target inflation and a hawkish half of the FOMC mean the Fed will still need to tighten before year end; the 2% inflation target is losing meaning and patience is becoming less acceptable.
SHY HIGH
Sarah Kunst Cleo Capital Founder 34:20
NVIDIA deceleration and competition risk.
The market is beginning to price in deceleration for NVIDIA because competition from OpenAI, Meta, and other hyperscaler chip designs is advancing, and there is little evidence who is ultimately paying for AI; NVIDIA's huge head start will not last forever.
NVDA MED
Andrew Balls CIO, PIMCO 46:04
Long-term bonds finally compensate risk.
Long-term bond yields have repriced to the high end of multi-year ranges and now compensate investors for fiscal deterioration; high-quality US bond funds yielding 6%-7% and global aggregate bonds look like very good compensation.
TLT Global Aggregate Bonds HIGH
Andrew Balls CIO, PIMCO 47:06
Avoid generic US tech credit.
US investment-grade corporate credit faces pressure from large tech-sector issuance and tight spreads; investors should be careful and avoid generic technology credit exposure, favoring access deals and premium where available.
LQD MED
Dan Skelly Head of Market Research, Morgan Stanley E*TRADE 53:58
Stay constructive on US risk assets.
Risk assets remain constructive because fundamentals are strong, AI productivity evidence is emerging, and average stock valuations are undemanding; AI adoption should translate to explicit earnings upside in the next year or so.
SPY HIGH
Tobin Marcus Wolfe Research 65:33
Treasury buyback too small to matter.
The Treasury buyback program is too small to meaningfully lower long-end yields; achieving the 10-15 basis point impact of prior Fed QE would require expanding to hundreds of billions, so intervention is unlikely to move yields.
US 10-year Treasury notes MED
Jonathan Ferro Anchor, Bloomberg Television 74:24
Oil closer to $60-$70.
If the Iran-Oman diplomatic path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz continues and avoids another kinetic phase, crude is closer to $60-$70 than the $80s-$90s.
WTI BNO MED
Tracie McMillion Chief Investment Officer, Wells Fargo 102:57
Overweight equities over fixed income.
Strong earnings and nominal GDP justify overweighting equities over fixed income despite volatility; look through volatility because profit growth remains very strong.
US Fixed Income HIGH
Tracie McMillion Chief Investment Officer, Wells Fargo 105:59
Overweight IT, communications, materials.
AI is a secular earnings story, so stay overweight information technology, communication services, and materials as ancillary AI plays with valuation support.
XLK XLC XLB MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 26, 2026, features Marvin Loh, Sarah Kunst, Andrew Balls, Dan Skelly, Tobin Marcus, Jonathan Ferro, Tracie McMillion discussing SHY, NVDA, TLT, Global Aggregate Bonds, LQD, SPY, US 10-year Treasury notes, WTI, BNO, US Fixed Income, XLK, XLC, XLB. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Marvin Loh, Sarah Kunst, Andrew Balls, Dan Skelly, Tobin Marcus, Jonathan Ferro, Tracie McMillion  · Tickers: SHY, NVDA, TLT, Global Aggregate Bonds, LQD, SPY, US 10-year Treasury notes, WTI, BNO, US Fixed Income, XLK, XLC, XLB