Fed’s Miran on Supply Shocks, Policy, Central Bank Tenure

Summary

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran discusses his tenure, focusing on the impact of deregulation as a positive supply shock and the disinflationary effects of declining population growth. He emphasizes monetary policy lags and argues for rate cuts despite near-term inflation, and advocates for a smaller Fed balance sheet to avoid fiscal entanglements.

• Miran reflects on his internal reception at the Fed, noting cordial interactions.
• He highlights deregulation as an underappreciated positive supply shock for the economy.
• Miran argues declining population growth is disinflationary, lowering neutral rates and shelter inflation.
• He stresses monetary policy lags of 12-18 months, urging the Fed to look through oil supply shocks.
• Miran voted for rate cuts at every meeting and continues to favor cuts.
• He favors a smaller Fed balance sheet to avoid fiscal policy overlap.