Hormuz Deal Remains Elusive, Stocks Hold Near Record Highs | The Opening Trade 8/10/2026

Summary

Global stocks trade near record highs as markets await US CPI data. Oil remains around $83/barrel as a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz stays elusive, with Iran demanding compensation and ruling out direct US talks. Guests from Energy Aspects, RBC Capital Markets, and 12 Capital discuss commodity tightness, European equities resilience, and the growth of catastrophe bonds, while positioning calls include overweight EM equities and liquid alternatives.

• Strait of Hormuz remains blocked; Iran-Oman deal still not finalized, with Iran demanding concessions and direct US talks ruled out.
• Oil prices flat but supported by Chinese crude import recovery and product tightness, especially diesel and diesel margins.
• European electricity and gas markets face supply concerns, with low gas storage going into winter.
• Equity markets near record highs, with chip stocks aided by strong TSMC sales; AI infrastructure theme seen as durable.
• ECB expected to hike in September then pause; Fed focus shifts to CPI, which will determine rate hike pricing.
• Berkshire Hathaway bought back shares and invested $20B in equities, but still holds a near-$400B cash pile.
• Catastrophe bond issuance set to grow as Europe faces increasing wildfire risk and investors seek diversifying returns.