The Shift From Crypto Cycles to Structural Growth

Summary

• Jamie Leverton publicly stated in Q4 that the Bitcoin "four-year cycle" is dead, believing the historical supply-demand dynamic (driven by halvings) is no longer the primary driver as over 20M BTC are already in circulation.
• She is a long-term holder and thinks attempting to time Bitcoin is high-risk; the asset often does the opposite of what's predicted, reinforcing a buy-and-hold strategy.
• Her bull case: she tests new all-time highs by the end of 2026, which would confirm the cycle's end. A key catalyst is the passing of regulatory "clarity" legislation before the summer recess.
• She notes Bitcoin is currently trading more in line with riskier tech stocks than with commodities like gold, a pattern she expects will eventually break.
• She is more excited about the long-term potential of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization (citing Securitize and Figure) than about stablecoins, which she views as "plumbing."
• On assets: Bitcoin is viewed as a unique, long-term store of value due to its decentralization and finiteness, distinct from other tokens. Memecoins are for entertainment/community, not investment.
• Institutional adoption has happened faster than she expected, and the current regulatory environment has knowledgeable, pragmatic people in key positions.
• AI is seen as a general accelerant for innovation in the crypto space and is a focus area (e.g., Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI workloads), but specific crypto-AI projects like Bittensor require more study.
• The long-term vision is upgrading the entire financial system, a multi-decade journey that will solve real-world problems incrementally.