Are We Still In A Bull Market?
Speakers
Jonah Van Bourg
— Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol
Avi Felman
— Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management
Summary
Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg discuss the choppy crypto market, where Bitcoin is near highs but alts are in a savage bear market. They debate whether we are still in a bull market, the impact of Trump's unpredictable policies, and the need for catalysts like stablecoin legislation. They outline a roadmap involving DOGE layoffs, a Ukraine ceasefire, commodity shorts, rate cuts, deregulation, and AI productivity, with trades across BTC, alts, equities, bonds, and commodities.
- Bitcoin trades in a tight 94k-98k range while altcoins bleed and shorting weak alts works.
- They debate whether the market is a Bitcoin bull market and an alt bear market simultaneously.
- Trump's unpredictability and tariffs are seen as bad for equities but potentially supportive for Bitcoin as an alternative reserve currency.
- A Ukraine ceasefire is viewed as likely, prompting short commodity ideas (oil, LNG, wheat) and a long Russian equities trade.
- The roadmap includes DOGE layoffs, lower inflation, Fed rate cuts, deregulation, and AI productivity gains.
- Trades discussed include long BTC, long equities/NASDAQ, short SOL into unlocks, long ETH/BTC, and avoiding bonds.
- Alt/BTC ratios are favored, but crowded outperformers like HYPE and LTC are trimmed.
- Pension/ETF allocations are cited as a long-term structural bid for Bitcoin.
Ideas
Short weak alts in chop
In this choppy BTC market, the only consistently profitable strategy has been shorting. Long Bitcoin is flat YTD, long altcoins has been a disaster, and as BTC chops sideways the launch of more tokens causes the alt space to bleed. He favors shorting weak alts, especially those held by investors stuck in a 2021 mentality who are puking positions.
Avoid trading BTC in tight range
Bitcoin has compressed from a 92k-107k range into a much smaller 94k-98k range, with repeated head fakes above 98k and below 95k. Traders trained on larger ranges are getting chopped up. The takeaway is not to trade BTC here unless shorting bad alts after rallies or doing pair trades; need a catalyst to break out.
Watch MKR via USDS minting
Maker (MKR) rallied after USDS stablecoin market cap rose from $5B to $9B, an almost 100% increase in core product usage. If you monitor stablecoin minting stats, you could see the move coming. Governance proposal also helped, but the market was late to realize USDS was getting minted and used. This is a pair-trade/statistical setup rather than a long-term bullish call.
Bitcoin bull market despite alt bear
Bitcoin not puking on tariff fears suggests it is trading less like a risk asset and more like an alternative reserve currency in a multi-polar world. If equities nuke but countries start accumulating BTC on federal/central bank balance sheets to facilitate global trade, Bitcoin could go up as the expected value of that scenario rises, generating alpha not just beta.
Bullish alt/BTC ratio, short dominance
Alts have been destroyed and retraced the entire Trump move, but are no longer encountering heavy selling; many bottomed Feb 9 and are back above those levels while BTC is flat/down. This suggests sellers are exhausted. He is bullish on alt/BTC ratios and bearish BTC dominance. He worries that outperforming alts like HYPE/LTC will underperform if alt season arrives, so trim them and buy poor performers.
Bullish alt/BTC ratio, short dominance
Alts have been destroyed and retraced the entire Trump move, but are no longer encountering heavy selling; many bottomed Feb 9 and are back above those levels while BTC is flat/down. This suggests sellers are exhausted. He is bullish on alt/BTC ratios and bearish BTC dominance. He worries that outperforming alts like HYPE/LTC will underperform if alt season arrives, so trim them and buy poor performers.
Trim HYPE as crowded outperformer
HYPE has outperformed during the downturn, but assets where everyone hides tend to do poorly when the rest of the market comes back. He is nervous about holding it right now, has reduced size, though he likes the team and product. If expecting alt season, trim HYPE.
Trim LTC unless ETF approved
Same dynamic as HYPE: LTC has outperformed during the downturn and is likely to underperform in an alt season unless it gets an ETF approved quickly. Prefer to trim outperforming alts and buy laggards.
BTC/NASDAQ ratio basing for upside
Bitcoin held up while S&P futures had their biggest red candle of 2025. The BTC/NASDAQ ratio is basing around 4.35 after a wick to 4.25, currently 4.43, and the weekly chart looks constructive with a reasonable stop-out level. BTC is outperforming equities and the ratio setup is attractive.
Buy Russian equities on ceasefire
If Trump negotiates a Ukraine ceasefire, it is probably a pretty good time to buy Russian equities. However, ETFs tracking Russian indices are no longer tradeable/investable, so access is difficult. Conditional on ceasefire.
Short commodities on Ukraine ceasefire
A Ukraine ceasefire is likely (Poly Market ~70%). If it happens, commodity prices get nuked: OPEC may enter a price war, oil could fall to $45-50 vs $75, LNG also pressured, wheat lower. This would ease CPI.
Long equities into rate cuts/deregulation
After the initial pain phase (DOGE layoffs, risk asset wobble), a Ukraine ceasefire lowers inflation, Fed cuts rates, crypto rips, equities grind higher. Then mass deregulation and AI productivity gains create higher highs for equities and crypto. Buy equities before mass deregulation.
Avoid bonds as deficits worsen
In the later phase of the Trump roadmap, with constructive capital markets, Trump may ramp deficits/tariffs and cut taxes/spending in ways that cause corporate bonds and Treasury bonds to sell off. He says do not buy bonds; avoid bonds like the plague.
Long NASDAQ on AI productivity
AI productivity gains are a huge driver for NASDAQ. In May 2023, the call was that AI would be insanely good for NASDAQ; since then NASDAQ is up ~90%. Top tech stocks have gained most because they have the most value to gain from deploying AI; AI deflation and productivity gains bolster not just tech but broad S&P/Russell companies.
Short bonds/commodities, long stocks/BTC
His desired portfolio: avoid bonds like the plague, short commodities, long stocks, long Bitcoin. This is based on the Trump roadmap where rate cuts and deregulation create a constructive backdrop for risk assets while deficit ramp and tariffs pressure bonds, and alt season may follow deregulation.
Short bonds/commodities, long stocks/BTC
His desired portfolio: avoid bonds like the plague, short commodities, long stocks, long Bitcoin. This is based on the Trump roadmap where rate cuts and deregulation create a constructive backdrop for risk assets while deficit ramp and tariffs pressure bonds, and alt season may follow deregulation.
ETH/BTC short squeeze setup
Despite Bybit hack stealing $1.5B ETH, ETH/BTC sold off only ~2.5% and did not break the bottom of its range; it even ended higher than lows. This suggests no sellers left except North Korea. ETH/BTC has been in downtrend since Dec 2021 and eth maxis are out. A potential massive ETH short squeeze could occur in the next month or from much lower; he is cautiously constructive and won't short ETH anymore at these levels.
Short SOL into March unlocks
Solana has a large token unlock around March 1/mid-March (~$2B). With OTC/exchange volume around $1-2B/day, this creates supply overhang. It is not time to buy lots of Solana; better to use SOL as a short leg if long other assets. Some may be priced in, but not the end of the world.
Up Next
This 1000x Podcast video, published February 24, 2025, features Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman discussing ALTCOINS, BTC, MKR, Altcoin/BTC ratio, BTC dominance, HYPE, LTC, BTC/NASDAQ, Russian equities, WTI, LNG, WEAT, Equities, LQD, TLT, QQQ, DBC, STOCKS, ETH/BTC, SOL. 18 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman · Tickers: ALTCOINS, BTC, MKR, Altcoin/BTC ratio, BTC dominance, HYPE, LTC, BTC/NASDAQ, Russian equities, WTI, LNG, WEAT, Equities, LQD, TLT, QQQ, DBC, STOCKS, ETH/BTC, SOL