The Bond Market Is in Revolt — Is Money Printing Next?
Speakers
Trey Reik
— Precious Metals Strategist, Wealthion
Summary
Trey Reik, GBI chief economist, tells Maggie Lake that the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% shows a bond market in complete revolt, driven by US fiscal solvency concerns and aggressive Treasury interventions. He expects the Fed may be forced to hike, sees policy drifting toward yield curve control/money printing light, and argues this strengthens the long-term case for gold and precious metals. Despite near-term gold weakness around the $4,270 support level, he views further declines as an accumulation opportunity and says gold miners are especially oversold due to overstated oil/diesel cost fears.
- 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 5%, which Trey calls a bond market revolt.
- US deficits, interest costs, and Treasury interventions are pressuring yields higher.
- Trey expects the Fed may be forced into a 25bp rate hike to preserve credibility.
- He sees Fed/Treasury actions drifting toward yield curve control and 'money printing light.'
- Gold is near the $4,270 50-day moving average, a key short-term support level.
- Trey advises accumulating gold/precious metals into weakness for the next two years.
- He argues gold miners are oversold because oil/diesel cost fears are overstated.
Ideas
Bond market revolt; higher Treasury yields ahead
The 10-year Treasury yield has pushed above 5%, the highest since 2023, and Trey describes the bond market as in complete revolt. He attributes rising yields to deteriorating US fiscal solvency—entitlements, interest, and veterans' benefits exceeding total receipts—and to aggressive Treasury/Bessent interventions and comments that are unsettling markets. This points to continued upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield and weakness in Treasury bond prices.
Bond market revolt; higher Treasury yields ahead
The 10-year Treasury yield has pushed above 5%, the highest since 2023, and Trey describes the bond market as in complete revolt. He attributes rising yields to deteriorating US fiscal solvency—entitlements, interest, and veterans' benefits exceeding total receipts—and to aggressive Treasury/Bessent interventions and comments that are unsettling markets. This points to continued upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield and weakness in Treasury bond prices.
Gold correction is long-term accumulation opportunity
Trey argues the long-term fundamentals for gold are strengthening because the US is hitting an inflection point on fiscal solvency, the Treasury cannot properly finance its debt, and policy is moving toward yield curve control/money printing light. Although higher 10-year yields and oil are short-term headwinds, he sees the post-January correction as an enormous accumulation opportunity and advises buying gold under $4,300.
Gold miners unduly punished; great buying opportunity
Trey says gold miners have been triply unduly punished by fears of rising oil/diesel costs, but diesel is only a small part of cash costs—using Agnico Eagle's data, a 30% diesel increase would add only about 1.6% to 6% to cash costs. He argues oil is not relevant to the long-term gold trade and that miners down from January are a great opportunity.
Accumulate precious metals for long-term debasement
Trey says investors should accumulate precious metals between now and year-end for what will happen over the next two years, because the long-term fiscal and monetary debasement case is intact and only getting stronger with each short-term shock.
