September 14 Before Market Open: New York stocks rebound for the first time in 5 days on oil price decline and CPI relief; 86% probability of a September rate hike, what will the FOMC decide?; The suddenly emerging theory of AI speed adjustment

[September 14 #BeforeMarketOpen] New York stocks rebound for the first time in 5 days on oil price decline and CPI relief / 86% probability of a September rate hike, what will the FOMC decide? / The suddenly emerging theory of AI speed adjustment
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 14, 2026 at 00:59  |  3:13:21  |  815 Money Talk (815머니톡)
Speakers
Noh Geun-chang — Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center
Lee Ju-hyeon — Director, Xangle
Kim Tae-seong — Division Head, Xangle
Lee Kwon-hee — CEO, Economist
Lee Seul-yi — CEO, Economy Research

Summary

The September 14 pre-market show reviewed a rebound in US stocks after CPI relief and lower oil, but focused on the risk that Middle East supply disruptions could push crude higher again. Panelists debated whether AI-development speed-adjustment comments are a real threat to AI infrastructure or just noise, and they mapped the resulting volatility to Korean semiconductors, power infrastructure, shipbuilding, cosmetics, refiners, space, and gaming. Most guests treated the market drop as an opportunity to selectively buy quality AI and power names while keeping cash and watching FOMC, CPI, and oil.

  • US CPI met headline expectations but core inflation was slightly high, lifting September rate-hike odds.
  • Oil rebounded on Middle East supply disruption and postponed Iran-Gulf talks.
  • AI speed-adjustment comments from Anthropic's CEO sparked weekend weakness in AI and memory names.
  • Noh Geun-chang focused on AI data-center power, Marvell, Cisco, Bloom Energy, and supply-chain beneficiaries.
  • Lee Joo-yeon discussed oil, tanker shipping, refiners, renewables, and the Hyundai risk from Chinese auto plants.
  • Kim Tae-seong gave key levels for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix and favored power infrastructure and shipbuilding.
  • Lee Kwon-hee and Lee Seul-i saw AI semiconductor dips as opportunities and highlighted cosmetics, space, and trading-only refiners.
  • Panelists cautioned that gaming and SMR names remain risky and that macro volatility is likely to persist.
Ideas
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 42:44
AI data center power demand boom.
AI data center power demand is set to triple by 2030 from about 40GW to 120GW or more, with 1GW data centers equivalent to large nuclear reactors; Microsoft is tripling capacity, and Astra adoption could add 16-22GW, supporting the whole AI infrastructure supply chain.
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 47:24
Marvell benefits from data center interconnect growth.
Marvell is positioned in scale-across data center interconnect, optical DSP, and custom silicon for Google TPU, with strong networking and storage exposure; as data centers must be linked and capacity grows, Marvell should keep benefiting from AI infrastructure demand.
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 51:06
Cisco gains from AI networking orders.
Cisco's AI infrastructure orders have grown 4.5x, and it is a scale-across networking beneficiary with in-house switch silicon made by TSMC; its supply chain includes Ibiden, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, LG Innotek, and Isu Petasys, and the stock is a long-term tracking idea to buy on macro dips.
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 59:16
Samsung Electro-Mechanics expands networking substrates.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is diversifying into networking chip substrates, following Ibiden, and is gaining customers as AI networking substrate demand grows.
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 62:08
Isu Petasys supplies Cisco networking PCBs.
Isu Petasys focuses on networking MLB PCBs while Korean peers exited the business; it is recognized by Cisco as a top supplier and should benefit from AI networking and data center demand.
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 63:23
Bloom Energy powers data centers profitably.
Bloom Energy provides on-site solid oxide fuel cells for data centers that can be deployed faster than grid power; sales are doubling, operating profit is up nearly fourfold, and customers include Oracle and Equinix, with expansion to hyperscalers and neoclouds.
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 65:11
Doosan Fuel Cell needs profitability proof.
Doosan Fuel Cell has the right fuel-cell direction, but it remains loss-making and needs to prove profitability; as a second-tier player, it carries more risk than Bloom Energy and needs earnings validation.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 70:25
Oil supply risks keep crude elevated.
Middle East supply disruptions, including Saudi-Houthi conflict, the halted East-West pipeline, Bab el-Mandeb blockade, and postponed Iran-Gulf talks, are tightening global oil supply and keeping WTI and Brent biased higher.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 73:31
Refiners benefit from higher oil.
Higher crude and tight energy supply are highlighting refining margins, and the market is likely to rotate into refiners as war risk persists.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 73:35
Renewables gain from energy insecurity.
A prolonged Middle East war increases the need to replace traditional energy, so renewable energy and solar-related names can see rotational buying.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 74:21
VLCC rates rise on disrupted supply.
VLCC freight rates have broken previous highs because Saudi crude must move by sea while the land pipeline is blocked; tanker shipping and freight-related companies should benefit from structurally higher rates.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 76:19
Petrochemicals may improve on tight supply.
Petrochemical raw-material supply is tight, so the sector may not get worse and could see improving market expectations, even though the speaker prefers chemical-renewable crossovers.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 76:55
OCI, Hanwha blend chemicals and renewables.
OCI Holdings and Hanwha Solutions combine petrochemical exposure with renewable energy, giving a better long-term way to play war-driven energy replacement and tight chemical supply than pure petrochemical names.
Lee Ju-hyeon Director, Xangle 87:46
Hyundai faces risk from Chinese US plants.
Trump's comment about allowing Chinese automakers to build US plants would hurt Hyundai Motor because its key models overlap with Chinese EVs, though the speaker sees low feasibility due to existing tariffs and connected-car rules.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 94:12
SK hynix box breakout is key.
SK hynix must hold the 1.75 million won support; a break above 1.8 million won would trigger a rally in Korean semiconductor equipment and materials names, while a breakdown opens downside toward 1.725 million won, so the current box calls for patience rather than averaging down.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 95:28
Semis equipment rally on SK hynix breakout.
If SK hynix breaks above 1.8 million won, Korean semiconductor equipment and materials names should rally broadly; focus on test sockets and substrates rather than chasing the large-cap indices.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 99:09
Samsung Electronics waits for range breakout.
The AI speed-adjustment scare is overdone; the US will not stop AI investment because it would benefit China, and TSMC's strong results plus Micron's upcoming earnings support memory/HBM demand, making dips in SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Hanmi Semiconductor attractive.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 102:36
HD Hyundai Heavy leads shipbuilding.
LNG and LPG carrier orders are strong and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries has a solid order backlog and engine exposure, making it the top shipbuilding pick as energy replacement demand grows.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 103:01
Sejin Heavy expands ship tank customers.
Sejin Heavy Industries makes tanks for LNG/LPG carriers; it historically supplied only HD Hyundai's value chain but now supplies Samsung, Hanwha, and other shipbuilders, creating external growth.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 104:16
Cosmetics bounce needs confirmation.
September is historically a good time to buy Korean cosmetics before Black Friday and Amazon Prime Day; exports remain strong, won-strength concerns are overdone, and Korea Kolmar is the OEM leader with strong sun-care and Amazon top-brand exposure, with Cosmax also benefiting.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 105:03
Korean security stocks may catch up.
US security stocks have been strong, and Korean security names may catch up as AI safety and verification get more attention; S2W is the best SaaS-security proxy, while Genians, Dream Security, and RaonSecure have steady public-sector orders but small markets.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 113:17
Power infrastructure beats semis on dips.
On any market correction, power infrastructure and transformers should be the first priority over semiconductors because Korean players can produce in the US and have overtaken Mexican competitors in order-backlog growth; Hyosung Heavy Industries is the key name.
Kim Tae-seong Division Head, Xangle 113:55
Samsung SDI triggers battery materials.
Data centers need ESS for emergency power, so secondary batteries are a better cooling/power play than legacy cooling stocks; Samsung SDI above 550,000 won would trigger battery-material names like POSCO Future M, L&F, and Daejoo Electronic Materials.
Lee Kwon-hee CEO, Economist 128:42
Micron earnings key semiconductor catalyst.
Micron's October 1 earnings are a key upcoming event; TSMC's above-guidance results suggest a third-quarter surprise, so actual semiconductor numbers matter more than weekend AI-speed noise.
Lee Kwon-hee CEO, Economist 129:18
NVIDIA remains key AI indicator.
NVIDIA is the leader that must collapse for the AI cycle to end; Jensen Huang's confidence and continued investment in the ecosystem make NVIDIA the key indicator for whether AI hardware remains intact.
Lee Kwon-hee CEO, Economist 132:06
BH gains humanoid FPCB exposure.
BH is highlighted by a report showing a new North American humanoid customer, potential Samsung humanoid FPCB supply at CES 2027, and a target price raised to 41,000 won from 19,000 won; the stock is worth watching for a 2027 growth ramp.
Lee Kwon-hee CEO, Economist 133:31
KB Financial offers defensive dividend strength.
KB Financial is a defensive dividend play when the market is weak; Q3 earnings should be strong, with record quarterly net profit and a target price raised to 235,000 won, supported by leading-bank premium.
Lee Kwon-hee CEO, Economist 134:13
POSCO International resource earnings improve.
POSCO International should see earnings improve from resource development, Myanmar gas-field expansion, and energy materials sold out, with Alaska LNG as potential upside; valuation is undemanding and the stock is a long-term watchlist name.
Lee Kwon-hee CEO, Economist 141:00
KOSPI box awaits foreign flows.
KOSPI is trapped in a 6,400-7,500 box and hovering near the 20-day line around 6,819; foreign option positions are around 6,800-7,200, so direction depends on whether foreigners buy the dip, with FOMC likely to decide the next move.
Lee Kwon-hee CEO, Economist 150:46
Refiners firm as oil rebounds.
Oil's rebound supports refining names, but they are trading vehicles rather than long-term holds; less-risen S-Oil, GS Holdings, and HD Hyundai have short-term room, while Honggu Oil is a high-volatility trading proxy for oil moves.
Lee Seul-yi CEO, Economy Research 158:48
Korean gaming remains structurally unattractive.
Korean gaming is structurally lagging China in capital and technology, lacks regular blockbuster releases, and P2E is restricted; recent moves are event-driven, so Wemade and Shift Up are risky, with Krafton the main exception.
Lee Seul-yi CEO, Economy Research 161:17
Korean space stocks face oversold bounce.
Korean space stocks are deeply oversold and could rally short-term to prior resistance if SpaceX sentiment improves; real substance is in Korea Aerospace Industries, Hanwha Aerospace, Hanwha Systems, and Intellian Technologies, but SpaceX lock-up releases until next June may cap upside.
Lee Seul-yi CEO, Economy Research 164:41
Refiners are short-term oil trades.
Oil's rebound supports refining names, but they are trading vehicles rather than long-term holds; less-risen S-Oil, GS Holdings, and HD Hyundai have short-term room, while Honggu Oil is a high-volatility trading proxy for oil moves.
Lee Seul-yi CEO, Economy Research 164:41
Refiners are short-term oil trades.
Oil's rebound supports refining names, but they are trading vehicles rather than long-term holds; less-risen S-Oil, GS Holdings, and HD Hyundai have short-term room, while Honggu Oil is a high-volatility trading proxy for oil moves.
Lee Seul-yi CEO, Economy Research 180:16
Power equipment leads on data-center growth.
Power equipment and transmission should continue to lead as Microsoft and other hyperscalers triple data-center capacity; beneficiaries include HD Hyundai Electric, Hyosung Heavy Industries, and LS Electric.
Lee Seul-yi CEO, Economy Research 181:13
AI servers lift Korean substrates.
AI server hardware strength should lift Korean substrate makers; Isu Petasys and Daeduck Electronics are direct or indirect beneficiaries of AI server component demand.
Lee Seul-yi CEO, Economy Research 182:11
Foldable parts are event trades only.
Apple's foldable-phone news may create a short-term event trade in Korean foldable component makers, but the smartphone industry is mature and long-term growth is limited; Fine M-Tec, KH Vatec, and Segyeong Hi-Tech are the names to watch.
Lee Seul-yi CEO, Economy Research 184:06
Secondary batteries only for trading.
Lithium prices plunged and the market is heading into midterm-election volatility, so secondary batteries are not long-term holdings; only nimble short-term trading is appropriate when money flows in.
Lee Seul-yi CEO, Economy Research 185:15
NuScale risky; Doosan more diversified.
SMR sentiment is weakening after NuScale Power's 15% plunge on weak revenue and funding needs; NuScale is a pure SMR play and looks risky, while Doosan Enerbility is diversified across gas turbines and nuclear, so it may see volatility but less fundamental damage.
Lee Seul-yi CEO, Economy Research 185:15
NuScale risky; Doosan more diversified.
SMR sentiment is weakening after NuScale Power's 15% plunge on weak revenue and funding needs; NuScale is a pure SMR play and looks risky, while Doosan Enerbility is diversified across gas turbines and nuclear, so it may see volatility but less fundamental damage.
Up Next

This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published September 14, 2026, features Noh Geun-chang, Lee Ju-hyeon, Kim Tae-seong, Lee Kwon-hee, Lee Seul-yi discussing AI Data Center Infrastructure, MRVL, CSCO, 009150.KS, 007660.KS, BE, 336260.KS, WTI, BNO, CRAK, SOLAR, ICLN, BWET, XLE, 456040.KS, 009830.KS, 005380.KS, 000660.KS, Korean semiconductor equipment/materials, 005930.KS, 329180.KS, 075580.KS, 161890.KS, 192820.KS, S2W, Raonsecure, Dream Security, 263860.KQ, Power infrastructure/transformers, 298040.KS, 078600.KQ, 006400.KS, 066970.KS, 003670.KS, MU, NVDA, 090460.KS, 105560.KS, 047050.KS, EWY, 010950.KS, 267250.KS, KORU, 462870.KS, 112040.KQ, 047810.KS, 012450.KS, 189300.KQ, 272210.KS, 078930.KS, 024060.KQ, 010120.KS, 267260.KS, 353200.KS, 060720.KQ, Segyeong Hi-Tech, Secondary Battery Sector, SMR, 034020.KS. 40 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Noh Geun-chang, Lee Ju-hyeon, Kim Tae-seong, Lee Kwon-hee, Lee Seul-yi  · Tickers: AI Data Center Infrastructure, MRVL, CSCO, 009150.KS, 007660.KS, BE, 336260.KS, WTI, BNO, CRAK, SOLAR, ICLN, BWET, XLE, 456040.KS, 009830.KS, 005380.KS, 000660.KS, Korean semiconductor equipment/materials, 005930.KS, 329180.KS, 075580.KS, 161890.KS, 192820.KS, S2W, Raonsecure, Dream Security, 263860.KQ, Power infrastructure/transformers, 298040.KS, 078600.KQ, 006400.KS, 066970.KS, 003670.KS, MU, NVDA, 090460.KS, 105560.KS, 047050.KS, EWY, 010950.KS, 267250.KS, KORU, 462870.KS, 112040.KQ, 047810.KS, 012450.KS, 189300.KQ, 272210.KS, 078930.KS, 024060.KQ, 010120.KS, 267260.KS, 353200.KS, 060720.KQ, Segyeong Hi-Tech, Secondary Battery Sector, SMR, 034020.KS