Are Crypto Markets Bottoming, or Is There More Pain Ahead? - Bits + Bips
Speakers
Austin Campbell — Host
— Chopping Block co-host
Ram Ahluwalia — Maester of Wealth, Leader of Luma
— Lumida CEO
Chris Perkins — President, CoinFund
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- The "Thematic Trade" (Crypto, AI, Quantum) is unwinding due to extreme crowdedness; capital is rotating back to "unsexy" free cash flow and value.
- "DATs" (Digital Asset Treasuries/Tokens) are described as being in a "death spiral" driven by poor capital allocation decisions (buying locked tokens) and the unwinding of the leverage trade.
- There is a growing skepticism regarding AI valuations and the quality of private credit loans backing data centers/GPUs, with specific warnings about depreciating collateral.
- Geopolitical instability in regimes like Iran and Venezuela validates the long-term structural case for stablecoins and independent digital financial systems, despite short-term price volatility.
- Regulatory clarity on stablecoins (Basel III, SEC guidance) is the critical bottleneck for liquidity; once resolved (potentially by year-end), it will be transformative for bank participation.
Trade Ideas
Ram states, "Dats are in a death spiral. They're still in a death spiral... No view change." Omid adds that these entities "started buying locked tokens from foundations," signaling poor governance and fake lock-ups. These vehicles were proxies for crypto exposure when access was difficult. With ETFs available and the "griftiest extreme" of their capital allocation exposed (buying locked tokens), they have lost their premium and utility. SHORT/AVOID these proxy vehicles as they de-rate. A massive, sudden spike in BTC price could cause a short squeeze on high-beta proxies.
Ram states, "The higher level is crowdedness. Anything thematic is crowded... and that quantity is getting unwound." When thematic growth trades (Crypto, AI) unwind, capital rotates into "unsexy" sectors with tangible free cash flow. Ram explicitly suggests rotating into "waste management, maybe oil field services." LONG defensive, cash-flow-positive real economy sectors. A resurgence in risk-on liquidity or a "soft landing" that reignites growth stock speculation.
Omid argues regarding Iran: "If the regime falls, the banking system surely falls... this ultimately shows why the world needs a independent digital financial system." In countries with "draconian capital controls" or failing regimes (Iran, Venezuela), the local banking system is an arm of state theft. The collapse of these regimes creates a structural vacuum that only dollarized stablecoins or Bitcoin can fill for wealth preservation. LONG the asset class as a hedge against sovereign/regime failure. Internet shutdowns or extreme government crackdowns blocking access to digital rails.
Ram notes PayPal is at "52-week lows at the 17% free cash flow yield. It's insanity." He contrasts this with Stripe's $130B valuation. The market has over-penalized legacy fintech in favor of private market hype (Stripe). As the "AI/Tech" trade corrects, investors will seek high earnings yield and free cash flow, making PayPal a deep value play. LONG on valuation mean reversion. Continued market share loss to Apple Pay or Stripe; failure to execute on turnaround.
Ram points out "Oracle down 60%, Microsoft down 18%... anyone lending private credit to data centers in a correction." He mentions Blue Owl (OWL) "stalking Frost because they were making bad loans to tech software including to data center." There is a disconnect between AI hype and reality ("I call [__] on AI"). Lenders are financing GPUs (depreciating assets) with significant counterparty risk. This sector is due for a repricing as "liquid venture" corrects. AVOID AI hyperscalers and the private credit firms exposed to data center build-outs. AI delivers on productivity promises faster than expected, sustaining the capex boom.
Up Next
This Unchained (Chopping Block) video, published February 26, 2026, features Ram Ahluwalia, Omid Malikan discussing DATS, WM, XLE, XME, USDT, BTC, PYPL, BKLN, OWL, ORCL, MSFT. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Ram Ahluwalia, Omid Malikan · Tickers: DATS, WM, XLE, XME, USDT, BTC, PYPL, BKLN, OWL, ORCL, MSFT