Trade of The Week - MacroVoices #515
Speakers
Patrick Ceresna
— Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Erik Townsend
— Founder & Host, MacroVoices
Summary
In this Trade of the Week postgame, Patrick Ceresna presents a defined-risk WTI bull put spread based on a soft floor in crude oil, while he and Erik Townsend review the postgame chart deck. They discuss S&P correction risks, deteriorating mega-cap and financial-sector leadership, an ambiguous US dollar range/trend setup, and bullish technical setups in gold, silver, platinum, copper, and uranium. Erik warns that recent oil and gold strength may be geopolitically driven, and he highlights a quiet 10-year Treasury range awaiting a catalyst.
- Patrick Ceresna outlines a February 2026 WTI $59/$55 bull put spread as a probability-weighted income trade.
- Erik Townsend says he has put on an S&P hedge due to crowded positioning and correction risk.
- Patrick sees the S&P vulnerable if 6,850-6,900 support breaks and leadership sectors deteriorate.
- The hosts debate the US dollar after recent strength, with no strong positioning in the 98-99 range.
- Erik warns recent oil and gold strength may be geopolitical risk premium that can retrace.
- Patrick remains bullish on gold, silver, platinum, copper, and uranium, citing hot momentum and technical breakouts.
- Erik calls the 10-year Treasury range quiet and catalyst-dependent.
Ideas
Sell WTI put spread, floor holds
Crude oil can look oversupplied on paper, but sanctions enforcement and oil-on-water bottlenecks keep barrels produced but not fully available, creating a soft floor. The market has repeatedly respected the mid-to-high $50s as support, so Patrick prefers monetizing downside premium with defined risk rather than hero-calling direction. He outlines selling the February 17, 2026 $59 put and buying the $55 put for a $1.55 net credit, a $59/$55 bull put spread, with max profit if WTI settles at or above $59, breakeven at $57.45, max loss of $245 below $55, and roughly 62% implied probability of finishing above breakeven.
Buy S&P protection, crowded positioning
The S&P trend is clearly up, but positioning is so crowded that it would not take much to bring on a sharp correction. Erik has put on the S&P hedge recommended in last week's trade of the week and agrees that protection makes lots of sense at these levels.
Watch S&P support for correction risk
The MAG 7 ETF has continued to deteriorate as large mega-cap stocks face selling pressure, and the financial sector ETF has broken down after JPMorgan and Bank of America earnings began to disappoint, potentially derailing a leadership sector. If S&P futures break below the 6850-6900 line in the sand, CTAs and systematic traders could begin a profit-taking cycle, ushering in a first-quarter correction; while above it, bulls remain in control.
MAG7 ETF deteriorating, avoid mega caps
The MAG 7 ETF has continued to deteriorate as big mega-cap stocks face selling pressure, pointing to an ongoing sector rotation away from the prior leadership group.
Financial sector ETF breakdown, avoid
JPMorgan and Bank of America earnings have started to disappoint, and the financial sector ETF has clearly broken to the downside, threatening one of the market's leadership sectors and supporting broader rotation and correction risk.
Dollar strength may be headline-driven
The US dollar's established downtrend has changed, but Patrick says the jury is still out on whether this is a new uptrend or a broader consolidation. He is not sold on a trend reversal because President Trump's geopolitical moves are short-term dollar-positive; if that is the only driver, the dollar is likely to retrace and resume its downtrend once the president shifts from bluffing to deal-making.
Dollar range; pain trade is higher
After a nasty drop in the first half of 2025, the US dollar spent the last six months in a tight three-point range and remains in the middle of it. Closes above key moving averages are early signals, but meaningful bullish follow-through is needed. The consensus view is for dollar weakness, so the pain trade is a US dollar up impulse; Erik sees 98-99 as neutral and 99-99.5 as the Fibonacci zone to watch, and is not taking strong positioning without a clear trend.
Fade oil rally, it's headline-driven
The recent big upside move in crude oil was driven by geopolitical headline risk and risk premium, not by a new fundamental trend. Erik says the next move is headline dependent, and although the rally may have triggered a technical signal of a new uptrend, he is fading that signal because he believes it is headline driven.
Gold bull intact, short-term correction risk
Gold hit a fresh all-time high and activated measured move targets between 4,900 and 5,100, but much of the recent upside was geopolitical risk premium. If Iran military strike speculation dies down as the president tames his rhetoric, gold is likely to retrace at least part of the recent move, and it is already overbought on stochastics. Erik sees room for a significant short-term correction before the gold bull market eventually continues.
Gold running to 4,800-5,000
Gold continues to run and Patrick agrees with upper targets, though his are a bit lower at 4,800 to 5,000. Precious metals are hot, with silver making new highs and platinum attempting a fresh 52-week high, and there is zero evidence the wind has been taken out of the sails, so the path of least resistance is higher.
Silver parabolic, but upside momentum strong
Silver is making new highs and has entered a parabolic phase with $5 daily swings. Patrick says it certainly can go higher short-term and the path of least resistance is higher, but he warns this type of parabolic move likely ends in a blowoff or exhaustion point, possibly around $100+, before silver settles.
Platinum breaking to fresh 52-week high
Platinum is attempting to break again to a fresh 52-week high, and the broader metals markets are hot with no evidence the move is exhausted, so the path of least resistance is higher.
Copper targets 640-650, well bid
Copper is trading at 52-week highs, remains very well bid, and shows no immediate sign of topping out. Patrick has upper measured-move targets around 640-650 on the upside.
Uranium is big trade of 2026
The structural rally in uranium and uranium miners is clearly on. Even the URA ETF, which had lagged due to its high concentration of small modular reactor names, closed above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its recent correction, providing the last technical confirmation. Although short-term stochastics are overbought, Patrick expects considerably higher prices, calls uranium the big winner and big trade of 2026, and says he has a very heavy concentration of long positions with considerable size.
Treasury range awaits catalyst
The 10-year Treasury note has been incredibly quiet, remaining in a tight range despite the first wave of jobs, CPI, PPI, and retail sales data. Nothing has started a new trend, but yields have every opportunity to move in a big way at some point; for now they stay in purgatory waiting for a catalyst to begin the next big repricing.
Up Next
This Macro Voices video, published January 15, 2026, features Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend discussing WTI, WTI February 2026 $59/$55 bull put spread, SPY, ES=F, MAGS, XLF, US Dollar Index (DXY), GLD, SILVER, PPLT, COPPER, URA, 10-Year Treasury Note. 15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend · Tickers: WTI, WTI February 2026 $59/$55 bull put spread, SPY, ES=F, MAGS, XLF, US Dollar Index (DXY), GLD, SILVER, PPLT, COPPER, URA, 10-Year Treasury Note