The Market Looks Strong… Until You Check This One Indicator w/ Mark Newton

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 11, 2026 at 14:01  |  11:56  |  Milk Road Macro
Speakers
Mark Newton — Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors

Summary

Mark Newton discusses market breadth and the 2026 outlook after a three-year rally. He expects a pause/consolidation rather than a bear market, with a near-term bounce into early 2026 and later midterm-year weakness before a rally into 2027-2028. He sees recent breadth broadening in equal-weight, small/mid-cap, and Dow indices as encouraging, but technology may need to consolidate. He also argues AI bubble fears are overblown while leadership may rotate from AI creators to AI beneficiaries.

  • Mark Newton expects equities to consolidate after a strong three-year run, not crash.
  • He sees a near-term bounce into late February/early March, then market peaking.
  • Midterm election seasonality points to weakness from late summer into fall 2026, then a sharp rally into 2027-2028.
  • Market breadth deteriorated into late November but has recently broadened in equal-weight S&P, small caps, midcaps, and Dow indices.
  • Technology is overbought and crowded; he expects one more snapback before a necessary correction/consolidation.
  • AI bubble worries are overblown; valuations are not late-1990s extreme and most AI companies remain profitable.
  • He expects a potential rotation from AI creators to AI beneficiaries if leadership switches.
  • Sector rotation remains a key feature; he favors following strengthening and weakening sectors.
Ideas
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 0:04
Equities need pause, not bear market
After a stellar three-year run since 2022, equities and most risk assets need a consolidation/pause/refresh in 2026, likely starting late Q1 into Q2 and possibly into Q3, but he does not expect a bear market; the market should stabilize and turn higher for the year.
Equities HIGH
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 1:18
S&P bounces before peaking
He expects a near-term bounce in equities/S&P 500 into late February or early March, with the S&P potentially revisiting its highs and reaching up to 7,000 after starting the year with a 6,650 target, although markets should then start to show evidence of peaking.
SPY HIGH
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 2:13
Tech snapback then consolidation
Technology has been overbought and crowded after a multi-year run, and he expects at least one more snapback rally before a necessary correction/consolidation; next year tech likely consolidates, and the market needs tech leadership to roar higher.
XLK HIGH
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 5:23
Breadth broadening is a good sign
Although breadth deteriorated for four to five months and only 45% of stocks were above their 200-day moving average into late November, breadth has recently improved: the equal-weight S&P broke out to new highs, small caps (IWM) and midcaps (MDY) broke out, and the Dow Jones and Dow Jones Transportation came close, which are good broadening signs even though the damage done leaves the market vulnerable and tech leadership is still needed.
SP:SPXEW IWM MDY HIGH
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 5:23
Breadth broadening is a good sign
Although breadth deteriorated for four to five months and only 45% of stocks were above their 200-day moving average into late November, breadth has recently improved: the equal-weight S&P broke out to new highs, small caps (IWM) and midcaps (MDY) broke out, and the Dow Jones and Dow Jones Transportation came close, which are good broadening signs even though the damage done leaves the market vulnerable and tech leadership is still needed.
DJI IYT HIGH
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 7:15
Apple, Tesla stronger than Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia
Within the Magnificent 7, Apple and Tesla have held up while Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia have not been acting well, showing a bifurcation that favors the relative strength in Apple and Tesla over the weaker mega-cap tech names.
AAPL TSLA MED
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 7:15
Apple, Tesla stronger than Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia
Within the Magnificent 7, Apple and Tesla have held up while Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia have not been acting well, showing a bifurcation that favors the relative strength in Apple and Tesla over the weaker mega-cap tech names.
MSFT META NVDA MED
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 8:48
AI bubble fears are overblown
The worries about an AI bubble are overblown: valuations are nowhere near late-1990s levels, P/E ratios of 25-30 for companies changing lives are not obviously overvalued, most AI companies make a ton of money, and despite possible cash-flow issues at a few leading names, the AI trade has gone full steam.
AIQ HIGH
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 10:52
AI beneficiaries over AI creators
If there is a switch within AI, it will be less about a bubble and more about a transition where money is made from AI beneficiaries rather than AI creators; top names may see backing and filling, but that is not necessarily broad-market weakness.
AI-SECTOR MED
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815 Money Talk (815머니톡) · Jan 11

This Milk Road Macro video, published January 11, 2026, features Mark Newton discussing Equities, SPY, XLK, SP:SPXEW, IWM, MDY, DJI, IYT, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, META, NVDA, AIQ, AI-SECTOR. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Mark Newton  · Tickers: Equities, SPY, XLK, SP:SPXEW, IWM, MDY, DJI, IYT, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, META, NVDA, AIQ, AI-SECTOR