Waymo, Zoox, Tesla: Who Wins the Robotaxi Race?

Watch on YouTube ↗ | January 11, 2026 at 13:01 | 11:04 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Aicha Evans — CEO, Zoox

David Richer — CEO, Lyft

Sarfraz Maredia — Head of Autonomous Mobility, Uber

Sergei Kirillov — Chief Commercial Officer, Avride

Mark Fagan — Lecturer, Harvard Kennedy School; runs autonomous vehicle lab

Summary

Bloomberg examines the robotaxi race as companies prepare for expanded driverless ride-hailing in 2026. Zoox CEO Aicha Evans, Lyft CEO David Risher, Uber's Sarfraz Maredia, Avride's Sergei Kirillov, and Harvard's Mark Fagan discuss business models, unit economics, partnerships, safety, and the pace of adoption. The consensus is that robotaxis are advancing, but capital intensity, unprofitable economics, and safety/regulatory challenges mean adoption will be gradual rather than a sudden hockey stick.

Robotaxi fleets are projected to more than double to 18,000 vehicles in 2026 from 8,000 in 2025.
Waymo currently leads fully driverless paid U.S. service; Zoox and Tesla are pursuing different vehicle and operating models.
Zoox is building a purpose-built bidirectional robotaxi and plans to own and operate its fleet end-to-end.
Lyft and Uber are positioning as platforms/partners for autonomous vehicle operators rather than building all technology themselves.
Uber's Sarfraz Maredia says robotaxi unit economics are currently unprofitable and not cost-competitive with human-driven rides.
Avride is partnering with Uber instead of launching its own ride-hailing app, betting on a hybrid autonomous/human model.
China and the Middle East, including Abu Dhabi, are emerging as important robotaxi markets alongside the U.S.
Mark Fagan warns robotaxi adoption will not be a hockey stick due to capital intensity, vehicle utilization, and safety concerns.

Ideas

Aicha Evans CEO, Zoox 0:11

Zoox's purpose-built robotaxi scales faster long-term.

Zoox is building a purpose-built, bidirectional robotaxi with no steering wheel or pedals and plans to own, operate, maintain, and manage its entire fleet end-to-end. Although Aicha Evans acknowledges this approach is slower and more difficult initially, she believes it will scale faster, be more ubiquitous and consistent, and provide a personalized rider experience. The endeavor is capital-intensive, but she expects the returns to surprise people.

Mark Fagan Lecturer, Harvard Kennedy School; runs autonomous vehicle lab 1:15

Robotaxi adoption grows but not hockey stick.

Mark Fagan expects growth in autonomous taxis in 2026 but not a dramatic change; he does not believe robotaxis will be a hockey stick or quickly reach 20 cities with 25-50% of ride-hail rides. He emphasizes the capital intensity of both software development—encoding decades of human driving judgment—and the high vehicle utilization needed to pay off capital costs.

Sarfraz Maredia Head of Autonomous Mobility, Uber 5:12

Robotaxi economics poor; Uber platform benefits.

Autonomous-vehicle ride-hailing currently loses money for everyone; if robotaxi rides were priced to break even they would not be competitive with ordinary Uber rides. Sarfraz Maredia expects vehicle and compute costs to fall over time and unit economics to improve, but says that will take several years. Uber can partner with AV operators—including launching the first fully driverless ride outside the U.S. and China in Abu Dhabi—positioning its platform in a hybrid human/autonomous network.

Sarfraz Maredia Head of Autonomous Mobility, Uber 5:12

Robotaxi economics poor; Uber platform benefits.

Autonomous-vehicle ride-hailing currently loses money for everyone; if robotaxi rides were priced to break even they would not be competitive with ordinary Uber rides. Sarfraz Maredia expects vehicle and compute costs to fall over time and unit economics to improve, but says that will take several years. Uber can partner with AV operators—including launching the first fully driverless ride outside the U.S. and China in Abu Dhabi—positioning its platform in a hybrid human/autonomous network.

David Richer CEO, Lyft 6:34

Lyft's data and hybrid model stay relevant.

Lyft holds valuable proprietary demand and routing data—pick-up and drop-off locations, gated-community access, and daily ride patterns across every U.S. jurisdiction—while robotaxi companies have the self-driving technology Lyft lacks. David Risher describes AV companies and ride-hailing platforms as dating partners that can learn from each other. He also argues human drivers will complement autonomous vehicles for luggage, conversation, or assisting elderly riders, keeping Lyft relevant in a hybrid market.

Sergei Kirillov Chief Commercial Officer, Avride 8:27

Avride's Uber partnership validates hybrid robotaxi model.

Avride intentionally decided not to create its own ride-hailing app, instead partnering with existing platforms; Sergei Kirillov calls Uber a perfect partner. He argues riders benefit from Uber's hybrid model combining autonomous rides and human drivers. This asset-light strategy lets Avride focus on autonomous technology while leveraging Uber's demand and dispatch network.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 11, 2026, features Aicha Evans, Mark Fagan, Sarfraz Maredia, David Richer, Sergei Kirillov discussing Zoox, Robotaxi sector, UBER, LYFT, Avride. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Aicha Evans, Mark Fagan, Sarfraz Maredia, David Richer, Sergei Kirillov · Tickers: Zoox, Robotaxi sector, UBER, LYFT, Avride