Stocks Waver, Treasuries Dip Ahead of Nvidia Earnings, PCE Data | Bloomberg Brief 08/26/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 26, 2026 at 12:23  |  43:27  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Tom Mackenzie — Anchor, Bloomberg
Ven Ram — Markets Live Reporter/Strategist, Bloomberg
Matt Maley — Co-Chief Market Strategist, Miller Tabak
Mandeep Singh — Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Chloe Meley — Reporter, Bloomberg
Alice French — Japan Equities Reporter, Bloomberg
Vonnie Quinn — Anchor, Bloomberg

Summary

Bloomberg Brief previews a market-moving day centered on Nvidia earnings and US PCE inflation. Treasuries rally as oil falls and traders weigh Scott Bessent's buyback announcement, while US-Canada trade tensions escalate and an Iran-Oman interim Hormuz plan pressures crude. Matt Maley warns of seasonal equity risk and semiconductor rollover, recommending cheap VIX options as insurance, while Mandeep Singh argues Nvidia's fundamentals are solid despite weak price action.

  • US equity futures waver ahead of Nvidia earnings and July PCE inflation data.
  • Treasury yields fall on lower oil prices and the Bessent buyback announcement.
  • Matt Maley warns that semiconductor rollover resembles the 2000 internet-bubble divergence and sees seasonal equity risk.
  • Matt Maley recommends VIX options as inexpensive portfolio insurance into September and October.
  • Ven Ram says the short-term Treasury rally is real but long-term yields will likely rise on deficits and inflation.
  • Nvidia expectations focus on data center growth, margins, backlog, pricing power, and competition.
  • US-Canada trade tensions intensify with dollar-for-dollar retaliation.
  • An Iran-Oman interim deal on the Strait of Hormuz pushes Brent crude lower.
Ideas
Tom Mackenzie Anchor, Bloomberg 7:00
Nvidia's pricing power supports AI supply chain.
Hyperscaler capex estimates have been revised from around $600 billion to $850 billion-plus this year, and Nvidia data center growth is accelerating; estimates for Nvidia and peers have been revised up over 20%, margins are holding despite memory pricing, but this solid fundamental picture is not reflected in the price action.
NVDA HIGH
Ven Ram Markets Live Reporter/Strategist, Bloomberg 10:22
Short-term Treasury rally is supported.
The current Treasury rally is supported for now by tumbling oil prices and Scott Bessent's buyback announcement, which took out market shorts; the short-term sentiment is real even if longer-term risks remain.
SHY MED
Ven Ram Markets Live Reporter/Strategist, Bloomberg 10:37
Long-term Treasury yields must rise again.
The bigger problem behind Treasury yields is persistent and growing budget deficits plus unchecked inflation; long-term nominal bondholders cannot be confident they will come out ahead on a real basis, so Treasury yields have to go back up higher again.
TLT HIGH
Matt Maley Co-Chief Market Strategist, Miller Tabak 24:27
Semis rolling over warns broader market.
The semiconductor index has only retraced about half of its July decline and is starting to roll over again; this divergence with the S&P 500 resembles the pattern seen when the internet bubble burst, and if it continues it would be a major warning flag for the broader stock market.
SMH HIGH
Matt Maley Co-Chief Market Strategist, Miller Tabak 25:19
Buy cheap VIX options as insurance.
Heading into seasonally tough September and October, VIX is very low and VIX options are relatively inexpensive, so investors can buy cheap portfolio insurance against risks including Nvidia earnings, higher rates, Middle East tensions, and potential AI/chip stock weakness.
VIX options HIGH
Matt Maley Co-Chief Market Strategist, Miller Tabak 26:56
Higher yields pressure stock valuations lower.
Higher interest rates are not just a bond market issue; with price-to-sales and price-to-book valuations at all-time highs, if yields even remain at these levels and especially if they push higher, stock valuations will have to normalize to the downside.
SPY MED
Matt Maley Co-Chief Market Strategist, Miller Tabak 27:32
Software weakness can drag indexes lower.
The software sector is at risk again after weak Intuit and Zoom outlooks; because the S&P and Nasdaq are highly weighted with tech, if software starts to roll over, the indexes will be dragged lower and rotation could shift into cash.
IGV MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 26, 2026, features Tom Mackenzie, Ven Ram, Matt Maley discussing NVDA, SHY, TLT, SMH, VIX options, SPY, IGV. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Tom Mackenzie, Ven Ram, Matt Maley  · Tickers: NVDA, SHY, TLT, SMH, VIX options, SPY, IGV