Former Amb. Nicholas Burns: Don't think China wants to see Iran lose the war completely

Summary

Former Ambassador Nicholas Burns discusses U.S. sanctions pressure on Iran, arguing Iran's economy and currency are deteriorating sharply and that the administration is targeting Iran's economic pain point. He says the main uncertainty is China, which he does not expect to support the U.S. pressure campaign or abandon Iran. He also flags Strait of Hormuz shipping and oil-market risk and briefly assesses U.S.-China and Russia-NATO tensions.

• Burns supports U.S. efforts to prevent Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran's economy and currency are seen as much worse, with hyperinflation and scarcity.
• China is unlikely to support U.S. sanctions on Iran and will not back down.
• China is reportedly buying about half a million barrels per day of Iranian oil.
• Burns expects quiet U.S.-China talks but says the relationship remains difficult.
• He mentions China helping modernize Iran's Shahed drones.
• He briefly speculates Putin may pressure NATO's Baltic allies or Poland.