AI Evolution & Supply Chain Independence in 2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 05, 2026 at 19:15  |  1:20  |  Morgan Stanley
Speakers
Stephen Byrd — Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research, Morgan Stanley

Summary

Stephen Byrd of Morgan Stanley outlines two major 2026 themes. First, he expects AI breakthrough capabilities as large US model developers train next-generation models with roughly 10x more compute, potentially doubling model capability, expanding use cases, and driving an explosion in compute demand. Second, he sees supply-chain independence and reshoring as a continuing focus, with the US seeking to reduce dependence on China for rare earths, uranium, and other materials.

  • Morgan Stanley's Stephen Byrd discusses multi-year thematic drivers for 2026.
  • AI model scaling could produce breakthrough capabilities and more use cases.
  • Big five US model developers are applying about 10x compute to next models.
  • If scaling laws hold, models may be about twice as capable.
  • Rising AI adoption could cause an explosion in compute demand.
  • Supply-chain independence and reshoring remain major 2026 themes.
  • US is focused on reducing China dependency for rare earths, uranium, and other materials.
  • Multipolar world dynamics support national-independence focus.
Ideas
Stephen Byrd Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research, Morgan Stanley 0:18
AI compute demand to surge in 2026
Stephen Byrd expects 2026 to bring AI breakthrough capabilities because the big five American model developers are applying about 10 times the computational power to train their next models versus current models. If scaling laws hold, models could be about twice as capable, driving many more use cases, greater value from AI adoption, and an explosion in demand for compute in an already resource-constrained world.
AI-SECTOR AI compute HIGH
Stephen Byrd Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research, Morgan Stanley 0:55
Reshoring and supply-chain independence theme persists
He sees supply-chain independence and reshoring as a major 2026 theme in a multipolar world. The US is focused on eliminating dependency on China for rare earths, uranium, and other materials, and broad reshoring/national-independence efforts should remain a key area of focus.
RSHR REMX URA MED
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This Morgan Stanley video, published January 05, 2026, features Stephen Byrd discussing AI-SECTOR, AI compute, RSHR, REMX, URA. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Stephen Byrd  · Tickers: AI-SECTOR, AI compute, RSHR, REMX, URA