Impact of Geopolitical Risks, Maduro Pleads Not Guilty To All Charges | ETF IQ 1/5/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | January 05, 2026 at 19:08 | 22:50 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Cullen Roche — Founder, Discipline Funds

Jim Craig — CIO, Stone Harbor Investment Partners

Eric

Katie Greifeld — Anchor, Bloomberg

Isabelle Lee — Reporter, Bloomberg

Summary

Bloomberg ETF IQ's first 2026 episode covered ETF flows, U.S. exceptionalism, geopolitical risk, and emerging-market debt. Discipline Funds founder Cullen Roche discussed international stocks as a dollar hedge, alternatives for portfolio insurance, bonds and T-bills, and diversified commodities. Stone Harbor's Jim Craige detailed high-conviction opportunities in Venezuelan and Lebanese defaulted debt, Argentina and Latin America, while avoiding oil exporters. The show also covered Nicolas Maduro's not-guilty plea and ETF industry stories including AT1 inflows and the Government Grift ETF's listing rejections.

ETF flows started 2026 with VOO leading and QQQ among outflows.
Eric argued U.S. exceptionalism remains intact despite skeptical headlines.
Cullen Roche favored international stocks as a dollar hedge and alternatives as portfolio insurance.
Cullen Roche saw bonds and T-bills as better hedges and favored diversified commodities.
Jim Craige remained bullish on Venezuelan defaulted debt, expecting restructuring value.
Jim Craige was bullish on Argentina, Latin America, and Lebanon, but avoided oil exporters.
The episode covered Maduro's arraignment and ETF industry listing and flow stories.

Ideas

Eric 2:14

U.S. exceptionalism remains strong.

U.S. exceptionalism remains intact; the U.S. market was up 18% last year, investors keep piling money into U.S. ETFs, and U.S. ETF assets are more than 5x any other country's, with VOO leading flows.

Cullen Roche Founder, Discipline Funds 4:51

Alternatives provide needed portfolio insurance.

High U.S. valuations, rising geopolitical risk, and the bond market's recent failure to hedge portfolios mean advisors should use alternatives and hedge funds as portfolio insurance.

Cullen Roche Founder, Discipline Funds 5:29

International stocks hedge dollar weakness.

International stocks are attractive primarily as a dollar hedge; when the dollar declines significantly, international holdings get a boost, and they also provide some inflation hedging, so advisors should maintain international exposure for currency diversification.

Cullen Roche Founder, Discipline Funds 6:31

Bonds offer better hedge today.

Bonds are a better portfolio hedge today than in prior years because yields are much higher and even T-bills offer real returns, making them an attractive form of insurance.

Cullen Roche Founder, Discipline Funds 7:03

Diversified commodities are useful real assets.

Investors who lack real assets can benefit from commodities, especially diversified commodity exposure rather than concentrated gold; commodities diversify against inflation and real-asset booms like 2022.

Jim Craig CIO, Stone Harbor Investment Partners 18:39

Venezuelan defaulted debt offers restructuring upside.

Venezuelan defaulted debt has rallied and should continue to rise because it trades around 35 cents on the dollar versus a claim value 1.5-2x higher; a relatively simple restructuring within 18-24 months could unlock substantial value.

Jim Craig CIO, Stone Harbor Investment Partners 19:17

Argentina debt yields 10.5% attractive.

Argentina is very attractive because its debt offers a 10.5% yield.

Jim Craig CIO, Stone Harbor Investment Partners 19:28

Latin America growth supports regional debt.

The Latin American region should continue to do very well and grow 2.5%-3% above the U.S., making regional debt attractive.

Jim Craig CIO, Stone Harbor Investment Partners 19:49

Avoid oil exporters on oversupply risk.

Oil exporters are less attractive because Venezuelan supply is expected to increase in an already oversupplied oil market, so he does not want to be overweight the group.

Jim Craig CIO, Stone Harbor Investment Partners 20:36

Brazil, Colombia, South Africa real rates high.

There are opportunities in countries like Brazil, Colombia, and South Africa because real rates are very high.

Jim Craig CIO, Stone Harbor Investment Partners 21:49

Lebanon defaulted bonds have long-term upside.

Lebanese defaulted bonds trade in the 20s with claim value about double that, and a new gap law allows restructurings; he is bullish on Lebanon long term.

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Bloomberg Markets · Jan 05

This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 05, 2026, features Eric, Cullen Roche, Jim Craig discussing SPY, VOO, Alternatives, Hedge funds, International stocks, BIL, DBC, Venezuelan sovereign debt, Argentine sovereign debt, Latin American sovereign debt, Oil exporters, EWZ, Colombia, EZA, Lebanese sovereign debt. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Eric, Cullen Roche, Jim Craig · Tickers: SPY, VOO, Alternatives, Hedge funds, International stocks, BIL, DBC, Venezuelan sovereign debt, Argentine sovereign debt, Latin American sovereign debt, Oil exporters, EWZ, Colombia, EZA, Lebanese sovereign debt