Will AI End The World, What is Scott Bessent Doing, and Why I Love uPNL
Speakers
Thread Guy
— Crypto influencer, independent
Summary
Thread Guy reacts to AI doom warnings from Anthropic and the OpenAI math-problem controversy, arguing AI labs have poor forecasting credibility while software/SaaS remains strong. He highlights private inference token VV, a Micron long tied to forced AI data-center buildout, and oil strength from the US-Iran conflict. He also reviews Bessent's yen and long-end yield intervention and discusses on-chain trading and consumer anecdotes.
- AI lab leaders' doom claims are met with skepticism; Thread Guy argues prior SaaS-death and job-loss predictions were wrong.
- The OpenAI math-problem chat-log controversy fuels private inference interest, with VV named as the liquid expression.
- Thread Guy is long a small Micron position, citing US government determination to win the AI race and force compute buildout.
- Oil is seen as supported by the US-Iran shooting conflict, with Brent and crude rising.
- Bessent is intervening in USD/JPY and trying to control long-end Treasury yields; 10-year and 30-year yields are breaking out.
- Anecdotal gym observation points to Nike losing footwear mindshare to Hoka, ASICS, Adidas, and Jordan.
- On-chain commentary covers small-punt strategies and social trading leaderboard behavior.
Ideas
Venice token benefits from AI privacy fears.
The OpenAI math-problem controversy raised fears that chat logs and user data could be distilled and repurposed. Venice (VV) is the best liquid asset for private AI inference, and each questionable AI-lab action strengthens the private-inference case.
SaaS not dying; IGV strong.
AI predictions of SaaS death and mass white-collar job displacement have not happened. IGV, Salesforce, and CRM companies are at or near all-time highs and are not being replaced, so software/SaaS remains resilient.
Micron benefits from forced AI buildout.
The US government sees winning the AI race against China as existential, so it will force data-center and compute buildout despite anti-data-center political pushback. Micron is an AI/memory beneficiary; the speaker is long a nibble from 1,024.
Oil rises on US-Iran conflict.
The US and Iran are actively shooting at each other, and oil is rising as a result. Brent is the most expensive since May and crude is up about 3 percent; the conflict keeps upward pressure on oil.
Nike losing gym footwear mindshare.
Anecdotal gym observation suggests consumers have shifted away from Nike footwear toward Hoka, ASICS, Adidas, and Jordan. Nike is down on the day, and the speaker sees little Nike footwear mindshare.
Bessent pushes USD/JPY below 160.
Treasury Secretary Bessent is actively intervening to strengthen the yen and push USD/JPY down, with 160 as the line in the sand; after his 'I am the house' comments USD/JPY fell about 2 percent. The intervention is working for now but carries eventual unwind risk.
Long-end yields breaking out despite Bessent.
Bessent is also trying to control long-end U.S. yields, but the 30-year and 10-year yields are breaking out. The speaker calls the move terrifying and says Bessent will have to prove he can control the bond market.
