U.S. & China Reach Deal, Cut Tariffs by 115%, What's Next? | Shaun Rein

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 12, 2025 at 20:00  |  32:21  |  The David Lin Report
Speakers
Shaun Rein — Founder & Managing Director, China Market Research Group
David Lin — Founder & Host, The David Lin Report / ex-Anchor, Kitco News

Summary

Shaun Rein analyzes the US-China 90-day tariff reduction, arguing China gained geopolitical advantage while US domestic pressure forced Trump to roll back tariffs. He says he is the most bullish on China's economy in six years, citing export diversification, targeted stimulus, and a recovering Chinese consumer. He highlights China consumer, NEV, and real estate dynamics, plus potential trade-deal beneficiaries such as US chipmakers, Boeing, and soybeans. He also discusses India-Pakistan tensions and India's balancing act between the US and China.

  • US and China agree to a 90-day tariff reduction; markets rally and gold falls.
  • Shaun says China did not make concessions and gained geopolitical standing.
  • He is most bullish on China's economy in six years, citing export diversification and stimulus.
  • He recommends watching China consumer names like Trip.com, Hoka, On, Luckin, and Chagee.
  • He says targeted subsidies are boosting Chinese NEV sales and BYD/Xiaomi.
  • He sees US chipmakers, Boeing, and soybeans as potential trade-deal beneficiaries.
  • He remains cautious on China real estate and sees Apple under pricing pressure.
  • He discusses India-Pakistan conflict and India's need to balance US-China ties.
Ideas
Shaun Rein Founder & Managing Director, China Market Research Group 12:12
Most bullish on China in six years
Shaun says he is the most bullish on China's economy in six years, reversing his prior bearish stance. He argues China did not fold in the trade war, has diversified exports toward ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, and saw April exports rise 8.1% despite US tariffs. He also cites returning animal spirits, an 8% increase in Ching Ming tourism spending, targeted stimulus, and a consumer recovery as reasons China's economy is on stable footing.
FXI HIGH
Shaun Rein Founder & Managing Director, China Market Research Group 20:35
China deal buys Boeing, soybeans
Shaun expects China to agree to buy more US aerospace equipment and airplanes from Boeing and more US soybeans as part of a trade deal, giving Trump political cover. He notes China had shifted soybean purchases to Brazil, so a deal could redirect buying back to US exporters and commodities.
BA SOYB MED
Shaun Rein Founder & Managing Director, China Market Research Group 20:42
China demand boosts US chipmakers
Shaun expects China to buy more US semiconductor chips as part of a trade deal, naming Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Intel. He cites Jensen Huang saying China is a $50 billion AI race and Nvidia could lose $5.5 billion without access, and Lisa Su saying AMD could lose $1.5-$2 billion if it cannot sell to China. He sees US tech tycoons pressuring Trump to keep selling, which would benefit these China-exposed chipmakers.
NVDA QCOM INTC AMD MED
Shaun Rein Founder & Managing Director, China Market Research Group 24:01
China real estate remains weak
Shaun says China's real estate sector remains weak: Shanghai has stabilized but second- and third-tier city prices are still falling. He views real estate, along with local government debt and aging demographics, as more serious structural problems for China than US tariffs.
China real estate sector HIGH
Shaun Rein Founder & Managing Director, China Market Research Group 24:47
Apple too expensive versus Chinese rivals
Shaun argues Apple iPhones are far too expensive in China compared with Xiaomi, Huawei, Oppo, and Vivo, and notes rumors of iPhone price cuts of $150-$180. He presents this as competitive pressure on Apple's China positioning.
AAPL MED
Shaun Rein Founder & Managing Director, China Market Research Group 25:01
Chinese NEV subsidies lift BYD, Xiaomi
Shaun says targeted government subsidies are boosting Chinese NEV sales, with NEV sales soaring and car companies like BYD and Xiaomi rallying. BYD is also expanding globally, having replaced Toyota and BMW as the biggest auto seller in Singapore and building a factory in Cambodia; Xiaomi benefits from consumer subsidies and its price advantage over Apple.
Chinese NEV sector 1211.HK 1810.HK MED
Shaun Rein Founder & Managing Director, China Market Research Group 25:51
Buy China consumer recovery names
Shaun expects Chinese consumers to spend more over the next six months due to targeted stimulus, returning confidence, and trade-war resilience. He tells investors to look at the tourist sector, naming Trip.com Group/Ctrip as a plane-ticket and hotel booking play; sports apparel brands Hoka and On; and tea/coffee beverage names Luckin Coffee and Chagee.
CHIQ TCOM DECK ONON LKNCY CHA HIGH
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This The David Lin Report video, published May 12, 2025, features Shaun Rein discussing FXI, BA, SOYB, NVDA, QCOM, INTC, AMD, China real estate sector, AAPL, Chinese NEV sector, 1211.HK, 1810.HK, CHIQ, TCOM, DECK, ONON, LKNCY, CHA. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Shaun Rein  · Tickers: FXI, BA, SOYB, NVDA, QCOM, INTC, AMD, China real estate sector, AAPL, Chinese NEV sector, 1211.HK, 1810.HK, CHIQ, TCOM, DECK, ONON, LKNCY, CHA