Layoffs About To Skyrocket, Why Is Fed Ignoring Critical Data? | Danielle DiMartino Booth

Summary

Danielle DiMartino Booth argues the Fed is dismissing clear labor-market and soft-data deterioration. She expects recession and disinflation, with negative payrolls, rising layoffs and bankruptcies, and a Fed eventually forced to cut rates. She favors defensive positioning, sees TLT at multi-year lows as a buying opportunity, likes high-dividend payers and short-duration bonds, and warns on banks and housing. She sees the dollar range-bound for the rest of 2025.

• Danielle DiMartino Booth criticizes Powell for ignoring soft data and labor-market weakness.
• She expects recession and disinflation, with negative payroll prints and rising unemployment.
• She sees capital expenditure plans collapsing and companies drawing credit lines.
• She views TLT at multi-year lows as a buying opportunity as the Fed is forced to cut.
• She favors defensive equities, short-duration bonds, and high-dividend payers.
• She warns banks face rising consumer, auto, and commercial real estate credit losses.
• She sees housing supply rising and home prices falling, pressuring homebuilders.
• She expects the U.S. dollar to remain range-bound for the rest of 2025.