Bloomberg Surveillance 2/3/2026
Speakers
Julian Emanuel
— Evercore ISI
Angelo Zino
— Senior Equity Analyst, CFRA Research
Victoria Fernandez
— Representative, Crossmark Global Investments
Vishal Khanduja
— Co-Head of Broad Markets Fixed Income, Morgan Stanley Investment Management
Dan Greenhaus
— Chief Strategist, ICAP
Jay Goldberg
— CEO, Seaport Global
Chris Harvey
— CIBC
Tyler Kendall
— Multimedia Editor, Bloomberg
Ed Ludlow
— Co-Host, Bloomberg Technology
Steve Englander
— Global Head of G10 FX Research, Standard Chartered
Yelena Shulyatyeva
— Senior U.S. Economist, The Conference Board
Jonathan Ferro
— Anchor, Bloomberg Television
Summary
Bloomberg Surveillance covers a market focused on strong earnings, AI capex, and data delays from a partial government shutdown. Guests debate whether AI spending and leveraged hyperscaler financing are sustainable, while also favoring banks, quality, energy, fixed income, and select commodity/currency diversification. The S&P 500 is near highs, with big tech earnings and Fed leadership under Kevin Warsh as key catalysts.
- U.S. equities trade near records as earnings beat and AI capex remains strong.
- Government shutdown delays payrolls and other BLS data, raising data-quality concerns.
- AI trade focus shifts to OpenAI/Nvidia tensions, Oracle financing, and TSMC capacity constraints.
- Guests favor banks, regional banks, energy, quality, fixed income curve steepening, and materials.
- Some strategists warn on high momentum, investment-grade credit, and debt-funded AI capex.
- Gold and silver remain volatile after a sharp crash; flows into gold and cyclical currencies are tied to dollar diversification.
- India-U.S. trade deal cuts tariffs, while Disney names Josh D'Amaro as next CEO.
- Midterm election year is seen bringing volatility but potential higher equities later in the year.
Ideas
Strong earnings support S&P upside.
Fourth-quarter earnings are tracking around 14% growth, and the earnings engine remains strong, setting up a good 2026 for equities. He argues the bull market has further to run despite macro disturbances and volatility.
Software remains in the doghouse.
Within technology, software is in the doghouse while chipmakers are powering Korea and other momentum trades. He sees caution toward technology concentrated in software and views that bifurcation as a reason investors remain cautious.
Nasdaq needs megacap tech participation.
The market needs megacap tech and momentum to resume for broad indices to advance. The Nasdaq 100 has gone sideways since October, and he expects the resolution to be higher, driven by earnings, with AI productivity eventually broadening.
Long-end yields threaten equity multiples.
Short-end rate cuts may be coming, but he expects the long end of the Treasury curve to become pressurized at some point. That would be the test for equity markets and a key risk to the bullish earnings-driven equity thesis.
Precious metals set for digestive phase.
Gold and silver went parabolic and silver crashed, but he does not see a systemic issue because precious metals are too small a share of market cap to disrupt the S&P 500. After such a range and crash, he expects a digestive, volatile phase that frustrates bulls and bears.
Nvidia dominates AI chip ecosystem.
Nvidia continues to have the best hardware and software ecosystem. OpenAI has commitments across many players, but Nvidia does not need to pick the customer-level winner and wants to be involved across the board, including participating in OpenAI's funding round. The host notes his rating is Strong Buy.
Avoid Oracle on leverage risk.
Oracle was downgraded months ago and he stays away from the name. It carries too much risk, will be free-cash-flow negative until at least 2030 because of data-center capex, and may need to tap markets again, possibly in 2027; leveraged AI names would be hit harder in an AI hiccup.
Prefer better-capitalized hyperscalers over leveraged AI.
If the AI trade hits a hiccup, neoclouds and Oracle will likely be hit harder than better-capitalized hyperscalers. He prefers the risk-reward in Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon because they are in stronger financial positions with better balance sheets.
Trim high momentum names.
With high momentum names having already run and 2026 likely to be a midterm-election year with high volatility, she would trim high-momentum positions and generate cash to redeploy into areas with better trends, rather than chase the crowded winners.
Small/mid caps participating again.
She sees broad-base momentum coming back, with small and mid-caps participating again after being left behind. She wants to put cash to work in areas showing improving trends rather than only in the crowded high-momentum leaders.
Like banks despite pullback.
She likes big banks and regional banks because their balance sheets are top-notch, regional banks have been shored up, and management and cash flow are strong. She also argues a Warsh-led Fed could produce a steeper yield curve, either through cuts or hawkish balance-sheet policy, which would be positive for banks.
Energy momentum remains strong.
Energy is another area where she sees money going to work; 100% of S&P energy names are above their 200-day moving averages, indicating strong momentum and an improving technical setup.
Fixed income offers steepener cash flow.
She expects the yield curve to steepen in 2026, regardless of whether it is bull or bear steepening, and recommends holding some fixed income for cash flow while positioning for that curve move.
Favor quality factor.
She argues the definition of safety has changed away from megacap tech, and investors should focus on companies with high quality factors and decent momentum factors that can withstand volatility.
Materials benefit from manufacturing rebound.
She would hold some materials as part of the portfolio because she anticipates a manufacturing pickup, which should support demand for raw materials.
Oracle bonds still not out of woods.
Oracle's bond spreads are not as tight as double-A hyperscalers' and remain around index level 155 versus 140-145 for stronger peers. He thinks Oracle listened to debt holders by bringing equity issuance, but it is still not out of the woods.
Investment grade credit faces duration risk.
Hyperscaler and AI-related issuance is making investment-grade credit a risk. He compares the current balance-sheet expansion to 2003-2005, saying starting credit quality is solid but duration and new issuance are building risk into the index.
Diversify away from US dollar.
He sees massive flows into gold and cyclical currencies as investors diversify away from an extreme 15-year over-allocation to the U.S. dollar. The Warsh nomination may stabilize temporarily, but less reliable central-bank dollar swap support means diversification should continue.
Oracle fundamentals look good long-term.
Despite being 50% off its highs, Oracle's five-year chart is not bad and long-term investors have been rewarded. He reads the earnings and capex build as fundamentally solid, with the OpenAI contract a worry but not enough to deter a long-term investor.
Regional banks outperform big banks.
Big banks are under pressure, partly from policy talk on credit-card rates, while retail and regional banks are doing better. He notes Wells Fargo and Citigroup are down year-to-date but KRE is up, suggesting regional banks are the stronger part of the bank trade.
TSMC capacity limits AI chip growth.
The biggest constraint on AI chip growth is TSMC's capacity to manufacture and package advanced chips. TSMC is bumping against limits, and that bottlenecks Nvidia and other chip designers, limiting how much of the insatiable AI compute demand can be met.
Small caps later after Fed cuts.
He likes cyclicals and small caps eventually because a Warsh-led Fed may provide front-end relief, but he says that is not coming until June or later. Until then, the January small-cap effect has faded with earnings season, so he would wait for a clearer rotation.
Favor quality companies with positive momentum.
He recommends moving up in quality toward companies with strong balance sheets, good capital stewardship, and positive price momentum. In a later-cycle market, he wants to marry higher-quality fundamentals with names the market is already rewarding rather than bottom-fishing.
Big Tech remains high quality.
He still considers Big Tech high quality at current valuations, especially after Oracle's successful bond issuance eased hyperscaler funding concerns. He expects earnings season to remain good, though without acceleration the broader market may need idiosyncratic stock picking.
Buy S&P dips; high single-digit returns.
He expects high single-digit S&P 500 returns with a 7450 target, and would buy any 5%+ pullback. With monetary accommodation, deregulation, M&A and IPO activity, he sees a possible melt-up or sharp pop in the summer or fall, even if the first half has risk aversion.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 03, 2026, features Julian Emanuel, Angelo Zino, Victoria Fernandez, Vishal Khanduja, Dan Greenhaus, Jay Goldberg, Chris Harvey discussing SPY, IGV, QQQ, US10Y, GLD, SILVER, NVDA, ORCL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, MTUM, IWM, KBE, KRE, XLE, TLT, Quality Factor, XLB, Oracle bonds, LQD, Cyclical currencies, TSM, XLK. 25 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Julian Emanuel, Angelo Zino, Victoria Fernandez, Vishal Khanduja, Dan Greenhaus, Jay Goldberg, Chris Harvey · Tickers: SPY, IGV, QQQ, US10Y, GLD, SILVER, NVDA, ORCL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, MTUM, IWM, KBE, KRE, XLE, TLT, Quality Factor, XLB, Oracle bonds, LQD, Cyclical currencies, TSM, XLK