Silver Mines Vanishing Warns CEO: $300 Price This Cycle | Glenn Jessome
Summary
- Silver at $83/oz Context: The discussion takes place in a scenario where silver has reached $83/oz (as of March 3rd), driven by a fundamental shift in the US government's view of silver as a "critical mineral" and a "weapon" for defense and technology.
- Supply Cliff: Jessome asserts that mine supply is falling (from 52 mines last year to 38 next year) and claims Silver Tiger Metals will be the only new silver mine coming into production in 2027 globally.
- Geopolitical Pivot: The US is scrambling to domesticate refining (currently 73% of smelting is in China). JP Morgan and the DoD are reportedly investing in a new smelter in Tennessee to counter this.
- Valuation Disconnect: Despite the high silver price, Jessome argues his company trades at a fraction of its Net Present Value (NPV) compared to producers, offering a 3-4x re-rate opportunity as they move from developer to producer.
Trade Ideas
"The US came out and they said wow we're making silver for the first time ever a critical mineral... for the economic protection of the United States and for the strategic defense." plus "They don't care about the input [cost] because they're building something this big." Demand for silver is becoming price-inelastic. Tech giants (AI/EVs) and the Defense sector (missiles) require silver regardless of price. If supply is shrinking (mines closing) and demand is strategic/mandatory, the price floor moves significantly higher. Long Physical Silver via ETFs. Industrial recession reducing tech demand; substitution of silver in solar panels.
"JP Morgan put $8 billion... into a joint venture... and they're going to build that smelter in Tennessee." This is a "follow the smart money" signal. If JPM is partnering with the Department of Defense to build domestic refining capacity, they anticipate a long-term structural shift in silver/critical mineral logistics away from China. This validates the macro thesis for the sector. Watch JPM for increased involvement in physical commodities trading and infrastructure. Regulatory hurdles for new industrial projects in the US.
Mentions "Pan-American" as a big producer and notes "Orla's permit... in 2019" was the last surface mine approved before Silver Tiger. He notes peers trade at "1 times NPV." In an $83 silver environment, established producers like Pan American Silver (PAAS) are generating massive free cash flow immediately, without the construction risk of a developer. Orla (ORLA) serves as a precedent for successful permitting in the region. These are the "safe" ways to play the thesis. Long major producers with exposure to Mexico. Mexican government policy changes (taxation/nationalization); labor disputes.
Up Next
This The David Lin Report video, published March 07, 2026, features Glenn Jessome discussing SLV, JPM, PAAS, ORLA. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Glenn Jessome · Tickers: SLV, JPM, PAAS, ORLA