Anatomy of a recession

Geo Chen · Fidenza Macro · March 31, 2026 at 03:39 · ⏱ 7 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author announces a shift in focus towards recession-themed trades that are expected to be profitable in the coming months or quarters. They also briefly mention a significant recent geopolitical headline from the Wall Street Journal concerning potential US policy changes in the Middle East.
  • •The author is now focusing on identifying and executing recession trades.
  • •A recent market-moving headline suggests a potential US withdrawal from Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Read time 7 min
Length 7,819 chars
Category macro
Ideas
Geo Chen Global macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
Gold may rally into the top of its parallel channel, but recession risk could cap upside; Chen is long with a tactical profit target.
GLD HIGH
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This newsletter, published March 31, 2026, features Geo Chen discussing GLD. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Geo Chen  · Tickers: GLD