It's a foggy war out there

Geo Chen · Fidenza Macro · March 24, 2026 at 03:30 · ⏱ 5 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author explains a recent trading action, stating that despite a long-term bearish view on equities and Treasuries, they closed their short futures positions. This decision was based on an experienced-based gut feeling that President Trump would back down from threats to strike Iran, which turned out to be correct.
  • The author closed short positions on futures at the Monday open.
  • This action was a tactical move based on the expectation that President Trump would not follow through on threats against Iran.
  • The author's prediction was confirmed, as Trump did back down from the threat.
  • This short-term trade was executed despite the author maintaining a long-term bearish outlook on equities and Treasuries.
Read time 5 min
Length 5,110 chars
Category macro
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