Marvell Part 3: What Has Been Proven, and What Is Still Open
Damnang
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· 21 августа 2026, 12:01
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Marvell's FY27 earnings story is being driven by Interconnect (guided above 70% growth) while the larger Custom Silicon contribution remains the FY28 upside (guided above 2x growth). Four of five Part 2 checkpoints have now passed, so the near-term thesis is increasingly de-risked and the market's attention should shift to whether the FY28 custom-silicon ramp is delivered.
•Marvell FY26 revenue was $8.195B, and the company outlook is roughly $11.5B for FY27 and $16.5B for FY28, implying ~$3.3B of incremental revenue in FY27 and a further ~$5.0B in FY28.
•FY27 Data Center growth is guided at about 50% and Interconnect growth above 70%, while Custom growth is guided above 20% in FY27 and above 2x in FY28.
•Four of the five Part 2 checkpoints laid out for the May 27 print have passed, with one partly confirmed; the biggest change is that Interconnect earnings contribution arrived faster than expected.
The author says 'I remain very positive on Marvell' and details that four of five checkpoints passed, with FY27 Interconnect growth above 70% and Custom growth above 2x in FY28, which supports a de-ri
The author says 'I remain very positive on Marvell' and details that four of five checkpoints passed, with FY27 Interconnect growth above 70% and Custom growth above 2x in FY28, which supports a de-risked near-term thesis and a large open FY28 upside.
Risk: The larger Custom growth contribution is still ahead in FY28 rather than proven, and one checkpoint is only partly confirmed; execution or guidance misses would undermine the bull case.
The article identifies 'Optical, Interconnect and Switching: the most de-risked FY27 driver' and puts Interconnect growth above 70%, implying very strong AI networking and custom silicon demand in whi
The article identifies 'Optical, Interconnect and Switching: the most de-risked FY27 driver' and puts Interconnect growth above 70%, implying very strong AI networking and custom silicon demand in which Broadcom is a major Ethernet switch and custom ASIC supplier.
Risk: If Marvell is gaining share in custom ASICs or switching, the read-through to AVGO is competitive rather than purely positive.
This newsletter, published August 21, 2026,
features Damnang
discussing MRVL, AVGO.
2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.