Ideas
Damnang
Substack author, Damnang’s Substack
Article says Marvell is co-developing NVLink Fusion-compatible scale-up networking and silicon photonics with NVIDIA, co-developing CMM-Ax with SK hynix, and owns Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric — plac
Article says Marvell is co-developing NVLink Fusion-compatible scale-up networking and silicon photonics with NVIDIA, co-developing CMM-Ax with SK hynix, and owns Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric — placing it at the exact intersection of optical I/O and CXL memory disaggregation the article identifies as the next AI value pool.
Risk: Much of the optical/memory roadmap is still research or vendor targets; execution and adoption risk remains high.
Damnang
Substack author, Damnang’s Substack
Article positions SK hynix's role expanding from DRAM die/HBM to custom base die, CXL/CMM-Ax pooled memory, and eventually a photonic memory pool, which could increase value-added and customer stickin
Article positions SK hynix's role expanding from DRAM die/HBM to custom base die, CXL/CMM-Ax pooled memory, and eventually a photonic memory pool, which could increase value-added and customer stickiness beyond selling memory bits.
Risk: HBM stack-height reduction cuts per-GPU bit content; if 8-Hi pricing falls sharply, article's sensitivity shows HBM revenue could fall to ~81.5% of plan.
Damnang
Substack author, Damnang’s Substack
The article argues the HBM4 8-Hi 192GB config works because NVL576 scale-up bandwidth and software tiering absorb memory-capacity loss, while compute holds and memory bandwidth rises slightly — valida
The article argues the HBM4 8-Hi 192GB config works because NVL576 scale-up bandwidth and software tiering absorb memory-capacity loss, while compute holds and memory bandwidth rises slightly — validating NVIDIA's system-level architecture despite lower local HBM density.
Risk: Final Rubin Ultra spec is unconfirmed; if software/scale-up cannot fully compensate for lower capacity in memory-bound workloads, NVIDIA could face a capability gap.
Damnang
Substack author, Damnang’s Substack
Article says DRAM is likely to stay tight through 2027 and lowering stack height raises the number of stacks built from the same DRAM/stacking capacity, so tighter supply and higher stack count can su
Article says DRAM is likely to stay tight through 2027 and lowering stack height raises the number of stacks built from the same DRAM/stacking capacity, so tighter supply and higher stack count can support HBM-dollar revenue even as per-GPU bits fall; Micron is one of the HBM suppliers to that market.
Risk: If 8-Hi is priced at 50% of planned HBM4E, article's sensitivity shows industry HBM revenue could fall to ~81.5% of plan, pressuring MU if GPU shipments do not absorb all capacity.
Damnang
Substack author, Damnang’s Substack
Article says as optics moves from pluggable through NPO/CPO to photonic interposer, volume growth in optical engines and laser sources comes first; Coherent is a major supplier of lasers and photonic
Article says as optics moves from pluggable through NPO/CPO to photonic interposer, volume growth in optical engines and laser sources comes first; Coherent is a major supplier of lasers and photonic components exposed to CPO/optical interconnects.
Risk: CPO timing is uncertain; the paper's architecture is a research direction, not a commercial roadmap, so optical volume may ramp later than implied.
This newsletter, published August 20, 2026,
features Damnang
discussing MRVL, 000660.KS, NVDA, MU, COHR.
5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Damnang
· Tickers:
MRVL,
000660.KS,
NVDA,
MU,
COHR