Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· April 06, 2026 at 10:09
· ⏱ 3 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author highlights a growing problem for the US economy: household income growth is slowing to 3.5% while inflation is expected to hit 4% by summer. This negative real income growth will pressure consumer spending, making the consensus forecast of 2.5% US GDP growth in 2026 difficult to achieve.
•Household income growth has softened to 3.5%.
•Inflation is projected to surge to 4% by the summer, outpacing income growth.
•This creates a 'math problem' for household spending, as real incomes are set to decline.
•The resulting pressure on consumption makes the current US growth expectation of 2.5% for 2026 seem optimistic.