{ "tldr": { "summary": "The article argues that US household spending power is eroding due to near-zero employment growth, slowing wage growth, and a fading savings drawdown. With added pressures from tariffs and an oil shock pushing inflation higher, it will be difficult to sustain the robust consumption growth many expect for 2026.", "key_points": [ "Employment growth has been running near zero for the last six months.", "Average hourly earnings have fallen to about 3.5%, the lowest this cycle.", "Household income growth has declined to levels below the second half of the 2010s expansion.", "Households have been propping up spending by drawing down savings, but this cushion is starting to fade.", "The oil shock is likely to push PCE price growth to near 4% year-over-year by summer.", "Real spending growth has averaged only 1.5% recently, making it difficult to achieve over 2.5% growth expectations for 2026." ] }, "trade_ideas": [] }