Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· April 02, 2026 at 10:28
· ⏱ 3 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author argues that recent US economic data indicates the economy was already on a weaker growth trajectory for 2026 than the consensus 2.5-3% forecast, even before the impact of a recent oil shock. The analysis prioritizes hard data like retail sales and employment over political rhetoric.
•US real growth for 2026 was likely tracking below the consensus 2.5-3% assumption.
•This economic weakness was evident even before the negative effects of a recent oil shock.
•The author suggests focusing on hard economic data releases rather than political speeches for a more accurate economic picture.