Thematic Portfolio Update: From Oil Shock to Growth Shock
Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· March 27, 2026 at 17:01
· ⏱ 1 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author argues that while markets have sold off in response to a recent oil shock, the pricing of future macroeconomic growth has not yet declined. They believe the best current risk/return opportunity is to bet against this optimistic growth pricing.
•An oil shock has caused a sell-off in both stocks and long-term bonds.
•Despite this, the market has not significantly reduced its expectations for future macroeconomic growth.
•The author suggests that fading (betting against) the market's current pricing of growth is the best risk/return opportunity available.