Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· March 24, 2026 at 10:10
· ⏱ 4 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author analyzes early global flash PMI data following an oil shock, concluding that the economic outlook is negative. The data points to a stagflationary squeeze, with inflation spiking while the demand outlook collapses.
•Global flash PMIs provide an early, negative read on the macro pressure from a recent oil shock.
•The data indicates a stagflationary environment with rising inflation and falling demand.
•The author notes that official hard data is too lagged to be useful for assessing abrupt changes in the economic regime.