Stocks Climb; Nuveen to Buy Schroders; Anthropic Funding Round | Bloomberg Brief 2/12/2026
Speakers
Summary
- The "AI Scare Trade" is rotating sectors; yesterday it hit Real Estate (specifically services like CBRE) on fears of AI displacement, following similar moves in other industries.
- A divergence is emerging in the hardware supply chain: Buyers of components (Cisco) are suffering margin compression due to an "unprecedented crunch" in memory chips, while the cost of those chips is skyrocketing.
- M&A is heating up in Asset Management with Nuveen buying Schroders; the thesis is a scramble for scale in private markets, putting other undervalued UK/EU managers in play.
- The Fed outlook has shifted to a July cut after strong payrolls, but J.P. Morgan AM argues the labor market remains fragile ("low hire, low fire") and suggests hedging credit exposure with duration.
- Anthropic's valuation has hit $350B (comparable to Netflix/Goldman Sachs), signaling that the "AI Arms Race" funding environment is accelerating, not slowing.
Trade Ideas
Stock down ~8% pre-market. "Margins are really hurt by this crunch... unprecedented crunch in memory chips." Cisco is on the wrong side of the hardware inflation trade. They are a buyer of expensive components, and while sales are okay, profitability is being squeezed by input costs they cannot fully pass on immediately. Short/Avoid on margin compression. Company successfully passes costs to customers faster than expected.
SoftBank swinging to profit; "Central to that was that stake... in OpenAI... gains from OpenAI on that bet around $20 billion." SoftBank is effectively a proxy for pre-IPO OpenAI exposure. As OpenAI's valuation climbs (and Anthropic's $350B valuation sets a comp), SoftBank's NAV expands. Long as an AI proxy. Tech valuation crash; SoftBank's other holdings (ARM) underperforming.
CEO Roland Busch says "industrial demand is off the charts... huge backlog, in fact, for the build out of datacenters." While tech companies fight over chips, the physical infrastructure (electrification, cooling, building management) is the bottleneck. Siemens is a "pick and shovel" play on the physical construction of AI data centers. Long on infrastructure demand. Global industrial slowdown outside of the data center sector.
Nuveen buying Schroders. "US asset managers are increasingly looking at European players and UK players in particular because they trade at a slightly larger discount." The Schroders deal sets a precedent and valuation floor. Other independent UK/EU asset managers trading at discounts are now prime takeover targets for US giants seeking private market scale. Long potential M&A targets. Regulatory blocking of cross-border financial mergers.
"Fastly is going to be one of those companies that is really benefiting from the tailwinds of AI." The market is looking for "catch-up" trades or second-derivative AI plays beyond the Mag-7. Management is successfully pivoting the narrative to AI edge compute. Long speculative AI rotation. Execution failure; AI benefits turn out to be marketing fluff rather than revenue.
"We continue to characterize the job market as a low hire, low fire one... fragile... We're finding high quality credit... and then we like to hedge... owning some duration." The economy is not overheating, it is stalling at a high level. In this environment, you want yield (Credit) but you need protection against a sudden labor market crack (Treasuries/Duration). Long Barbell Strategy (Credit + Duration). Inflation re-accelerates, forcing yields higher and hurting both bonds and credit spreads.
"Yesterday... it was real estate stocks... CBRE, a good example, was hit double digits... fear that there could be [an AI agent] launched." The market is currently in a "shoot first, ask questions later" mode regarding AI disruption. Service-heavy sectors (like real estate brokerage) are being repriced for existential risk, regardless of current earnings. Avoid until sentiment stabilizes. Earnings call dispels fears and stock snaps back.
Deborah Aitken
Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
"Leather goods is 45% sales... operating margin up over 100 bips... 5 to 6% pricing which they'll carry through into 2026." Hermes has decoupled from the general luxury slowdown (unlike LVMH/Gucci) due to extreme scarcity and pricing power. They are expanding margins despite macro headwinds, proving "Veblen good" status. Long quality/resilience. severe global recession impacting ultra-high-net-worth spending.
Abeer Abu Omar
Reporter, Bloomberg London
Cisco's margins are "really hurt by this crunch, this unprecedented crunch in memory chips... That crunch has sent prices skyrocketing." One company's cost crunch is another's margin expansion. If memory prices are skyrocketing due to shortages, the manufacturers of those chips possess immense pricing power and will see earnings beats. Long the suppliers of memory. Sudden drop in AI/Data center demand resolving the shortage.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 12, 2026, features Abeer Abu Omar, Tom Mackenzie, Leo Kamin, Priya Misra, Neil Campling, Deborah Aitken discussing CSCO, SFTBY, SIEGY, ABERDEEN, AMUNDI, FSLY, LQD, TLT, CBRE, RMS, HERMES, MU. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Abeer Abu Omar, Tom Mackenzie, Leo Kamin, Priya Misra, Neil Campling, Deborah Aitken · Tickers: CSCO, SFTBY, SIEGY, ABERDEEN, AMUNDI, FSLY, LQD, TLT, CBRE, RMS, HERMES, MU