US Yields Likely Have Higher to Climb: 3-Minutes MLIV
Speakers
Summary
- The recent strengthening of the Japanese Yen (to 153) is a "false narrative" driven by post-election optimism; fundamentals remain deeply negative (debt/growth).
- The US Dollar is structurally broken ("heads dollar loses, tails dollar loses") and failed to rally significantly despite very strong payroll data.
- US Equities face an imminent "shock" in the coming weeks due to "wealth damage" and anxiety in the Real Estate sector, with AI productivity gains too far out to salvage the immediate tape.
Trade Ideas
"The world is overexposed to the dollar on a structural basis... The dollar is one year into a multiyear downtrend." Even "strong payrolls" failed to spike the dollar significantly. The speaker argues the reaction function is asymmetric: weak data hurts the dollar (cuts), and strong data also hurts the dollar (implies bad monetary policy/fiscal dominance). Sell rallies in the US DOLLAR. A massive geopolitical flight-to-safety event spiking demand for USD cash.
"I still kind of think we see a little bit of an equity shock in the coming weeks on some of this kind of wealth damage... and portfolio damage." The speaker cites anxiety around "assassination" (likely specific news event) and the Real Estate sector as catalysts for a near-term drawdown. They explicitly state AI is "farther down the line" and won't save the market immediately. Short S&P 500 INDEX and REAL ESTATE for a tactical correction. AI hype cycle accelerates faster than expected, overriding macro headwinds.
MLIV Guest
Market Strategist
"I would have thought yields would go much further... it should be overall a bigger shift, higher in the yield curve." The market underreacted to strong payroll data. The speaker believes the "flattening move" is insufficient and the entire curve needs to shift higher to reflect economic reality. Short US TREASURIES (expecting higher yields). Weak economic data prints causing a sudden flight to bonds.
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 12, 2026, features MLIV Guest discussing USD, XLRE, SPY, TLT. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: MLIV Guest · Tickers: USD, XLRE, SPY, TLT