Ideas
Memory shortages drive multi-year semiconductor demand.
Choi Ho presents a Citi report arguing that continuous learning, which combines preserving existing knowledge with training on new data, will structurally reshape long-term memory demand. The report expects simultaneous demand growth for HBM, server DRAM, eSSD, and NAND from 2027, persistent memory shortages, HBM demand growth of 62% in 2027 and 69% in 2028, DRAM shortages of 8.7% in 2027 and 9.7% in 2028, NAND shortages of 6.1% in 2027 and 5.5% in 2028, and NAND ASP gains of 45% in 2027 versus consensus around 20%. He highlights that this bullish memory view comes from a house that had previously been bearish on memory and equipment, and that the NAND price forecast is notably above consensus.
Samsung gains HBM share through 2027.
Within the same Citi memory report, Choi Ho notes that Samsung Electronics' HBM market share is projected to rise to 42% in 2027 from 30% in 2026, while SK hynix's share falls from 47% to 35% and Micron reaches 22%. Samsung also has the largest memory capex plan, concentrated in HBM and leading-edge DRAM. This is a company-specific relative positive for Samsung in the HBM race.
Semiconductor correction is a buying opportunity.
Park Se-ik argues that semiconductors and memory are in a recurring cycle of roughly two years up and one year down, and that the current correction is a normal pullback within a longer AI infrastructure supercycle rather than the end. He says the 'feast will start again,' expects memory prices and semiconductor stocks to rise again after the shakeout, and compares the current AI infrastructure phase to the third inning of a nine-inning game. He advises investors to hold or buy the correction rather than sell out, using the historical DRAM price-change cycle and past semiconductor rallies since 2013 as evidence.
Korean financials signal no structural bear market.
Park Se-ik points out that Shinhan Financial Group and Hana Financial Group are hitting new highs. He argues that if long-term yields rising to 5% were the start of a structural bear market, Korean financial stocks would not be making new highs. Their strength is a market signal that the rate rise is not a structural bear-market trigger, supporting a positive view on Korean financials and the broader Korean market.
Korean equities are contrarian rebound opportunity.
Park Se-ik says Korean market sentiment is now negative, with renewed talk of a 'domestic stock exodus' and frustration that the Korean market is not working. He treats this pessimism as contrarian bullish, citing the Templeton idea that investors should ask which market is most pessimistic rather than most promising. He compares the current pattern to 2024, when similar exodus talk and a semiconductor correction were followed by rebounds in other sectors, and says this correction is an opportunity.
LIG Defense is structural growth stock.
Park Se-ik says that every time he studies LIG Defense & Aerospace, he concludes it is a structural growth stock. The comment is brief but gives a clear company-specific growth view on the defense/aerospace name.
Treasury yields likely peak then fall.
Dr. Wang forecasts that the US 10-year Treasury yield will make a double top around October, with the right peak slightly higher than the left, then fall. He bases this on past patterns and the view that the yield is overextended. The broader discussion also notes that the 10-year yield is above the Bollinger upper band and that a short-term decline is possible.
Buy biotech when yields peak.
Park Se-ik says that if the US 10-year Treasury yield peaks around early October, then rate-sensitive stocks such as biotech should be bought at that moment. The idea is a downstream trade from the expectation that yields will stop rising and then decline, and he explicitly names biotech as an example of the kind of rate-vulnerable equity to accumulate at the yield peak.
This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published September 15, 2026,
features Choi Ho, Park Se-ik, Wang
discussing SMH, 005930.KS, 055550.KS, 086790.KS, EWY, LIG Defense & Aerospace, US10Y, XBI.
8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Choi Ho,
Park Se-ik,
Wang
· Tickers:
SMH,
005930.KS,
055550.KS,
086790.KS,
EWY,
LIG Defense & Aerospace,
US10Y,
XBI
